Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
And I know I had a go at Parker this morning saying he was a wheeler dealer. Having said that I do hope he's had his best Del Boy outfit on these last two weeks, cruising around the City in his Reliant Robin trying to get his mates to stump up a couple of ponies.
All we need to worry about is securing enough funding to progress to p1a data readout. Hopefully the board can secure funding that offers the least amount of dilution as possible but I think we'll have to accept some level of dilution.
To add to my list. and i'm not an expert here, not even an amateur but say we take the lowest deal on the list circa 4 billion for a stage 2 asset. And a pharma only gives us a 10% chance of getting to market. Then even with a 90% discount. We're still looking at £400 million. The thing is if phase 1b is a success and shows a good immune response. The discount on good p1b data is considerably smaller. If we can't raise funds on the back of that sort of potential, we may as well just call it a day. This why some lth are still buying because if the board pull it off. It will be a legendary return from these levels.
Not my list, can't remember who posted it but these are the size of deals we can expect if we get to phase 2 or 3.
Pfizer and Seagen. Deal size $43 Billion
2. Bristol Myers Squibb and Karuna Therapeutics Deal size $14 Billion
3. Merck and Prometheus Biosciences Deal size $10.8 Billion
4. AbbVie and ImmunoGen Deal size $10.1 Billion
5. AbbVie and Cerevel Therapeutics $8.7 Billion
6. Biogen and Reata Pharmaceuticals Deal size $7.3 Billion
7. Roche and Telavant Deal size $7.1 Billion
8. Astellas and Iveric Bio Deal size £5.9 Billion
9. Bristol Myers Squibb and Mirati Therapeutics Deal size $4.8 Billion
10. Bristol Myers Squibb and RayzeBio Deal size $4.1 Billion
I have thought the same as Aber as I'm sure many of us have. The majority of shares are in private hands, something like 95%. The shareholders would have the final say on any offer. It's the only upside to Parker not getting any institutional investors on board. I would imagine that most here would hold out for fair value and big investors such as the HNWI would want to at least break even. Finance aside and a few presumptions could see the company worth £500 million with all compounds licenced and progressing through trials, up to £ 2 billion at the end of a successful P2 trial. These figures might seem like they are plucked from thin air but there have been plenty of deals made around that p2 area that would dwarf that £2 billion. The board know what fair value is. We have big investors in for £3.50 or more and they know what fair value is. The board's job is to get fair value for the shareholders. This situation isn't a science problem, it's a relatively small funding problem. Fix that and fair value comes into play.
I think Tim and John are honest guys and SAR are better at comms than most AIM boards but Parker is corporate finance, wheeling, dealing and sailing close to the wind. It's a dance that they all willingly participate in. Not only that, I think they enjoy it. The retail investors supply the fuel for this machine because somewhere along the line, someone has to pay. We can't all win. We don't know what happened between summer 2021 and today but maybe if they had been more truthful, it might not have been as painful as it has been. I'm still optimistic here but as I said. It is the final nail in the coffin for my AIM investing.
GF, It's why I'm done with AIM. I think it will be finished in a few years. It's all spin. Not necessarily fraudulent but they only tell you what they need to. Not Just SAR, but all of AIM. I've written enough RCA responses in my time to know when we're being fed what they want us to know and think. The balance due Aug 2025 line is just that. They put that in because they want us to know that now.
Another speculation. With all 1.5 million shares sold, we could well be under the £1million balance clause. Which, under the terms would open up RF to give us more cash. The amount would be based on no more than 10% of the market cap and the average 10\20 day trading clause. No option I would like but an option nevertheless.
If a placing is needed and the discount and dilution is big. We need a full explanation, for me, if we don't get a satisfactory explanation, this is the red line where an EGM is called.
As far as i can see, this line hasn't been used until the last RNS. I think the terms are intentionally ambiguous and are being used interchangeably. IMO, there is no reason to put Aug 25 in there, other than spin.
What do you make of the below, MF? This says to me that balances don't need to be paid until Aug next year. I think this line is important.
As announced on 3 August 2023, the Company entered into an Equity Prepayment Facility with RiverFort (the "Facility"). The Company has drawn £2.3 million to date pursuant to the Facility from two prepayment deposits. The Company currently has an outstanding balance of circa £1.3 million under the Facility. Any balances pursuant to the Facility are not due for repayment until August 2025 (the "Maturity Date") and the Company expects to settle all balances by the issuance of Placing Shares prior to the Maturity Date.
I think it is important to point out here that, other than IR answering a question about shareholders contributing to a placing. The company hasn't mentioned a placement or any other type of funding. Also, they are not under any obligation to protect RF which would be illegal and insider trading. It is my belief that Sareum has asked RF to clear down their holding and we won't be giving them more shares until we have to, which is Aug 2025. This should clear the way for SP rises. Yes, there will be some who bought recently that might take profit, including me but essentially we will have to got rid of the ball and chain that is RF, at least until next year. I'm not expecting today to be pretty but the MMs could push the price up a little like they did yesterday. I will buy some more today in anticipation of getting a forward-looking statement with a clear plan to progress. As for what will that cost. I honestly don't know.
The timing of the RNS will depend on the content. If bad new, I may come late tomorrow to protect the sp with a long weekend. If positive, it will come first thing or at 11am. We could get one today but I do think they waiting for RF to offload as many as they can, in fact, Id go as far as saying the board might have asked them to. Hit the bottom and bounce back. Strap in!
The answer is pretty simple, Bull. The financing might not be an immediate problem if the target is to get to the 1a data readout. I think it's obvious that some negotiations are going on. That's why we have complete radio silence. I have been buying in small chunks since last Aug. I bought yesterday and will buy another 2 or 3 tranches this week. This way, if the SP does keep falling, then, I keep averaging down. If I could predict the bottom, I would buy then but as it stands, any piece of good news will see the SP rise and it might 2 or 3 bag in an instant.