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If anything was to trigger a TO, it's the similarities in 1801 and 2. It would make sense to buy up both, to lock in all indications. If SAR do on license 1801, then 1802, if it goes elsewhere may become a competitor and it gets messy. I don't think the TO scenario is likely but the chance to cover dozens of indications, immune and cancer must be on some radar somewhere.
Hi SOG or anyone who has, an opinion. With the latest patent news covering 1802 for immune too. Does that make it more or less likely that the TYK2 compounds could go to separate partners? Also, does that mean that 1801 could cover some cancers?
Silver, just sell at £3 when we get there? I know this is a big if but if 1801 and 2 are good. £300 million is nowhere near enough for two tyk2 and a 27% share in a 737. Frankly, if 737 comes good in p2 combo trials. You've got your £300 there.
Yes, in terms of total time to trial 2a skips over a fair bit. It's a good move IMO, and I think the board are using the likes of Sotyktu as validation to skip to 2a. I'm hoping, if we are in licencing talks that the fact BMS paif $4 billion for Sotyktu warrants a decent upfront for Sareum.
The 2a trial has already slipped in terms of timescales so will probably start at the end of this year. Based on that we'll be lucky to get a data readout before the end of 2025. Hopefully, funding aside, 1802 will be in trials too plus 737 news? The company have been very clear that funding is needed for 2a. Take that out of the equation and punters will start buying again.
How does the company keep afloat until 2a data readout? Could easily run into 2026. How do they push 1802 along? They need 18 months, minimum of trial and operating costs. Between 6 and £10 million. Even with a licenced funded trial, we'd still need £3 million to cover running costs, salaries, etc.. Why do you think buyers have dried up? My number 1 rule for AIM investing is checking when the last raise was and looking when the next one is needed. The wrap and all the extra 40 million shares only gets us to the end of this year. The board could try and cherr the sp to a pound then raise but the discount would still be huge. So anyone buying around a pound could be 20% or more underwater after a raise. The board need to solve the funding problem and An on license now is really the only sensible option.
Firstly, for those that haven't. You should read the report in full.
I think this paragraph is a nod to what is happening. And the socond paragraph shows that the report is commissioned and paid for, based on a note issued by Sareum.
Should data continue to be favourable and contingent on Sareum securing further funding (we expect the company is likely to seek non-dilutive funding in the form of a partnership), the company expects to start a Phase IIa study in psoriasis patients (n=24) before end-CY24.
This report has been commissioned by Sareum Holdings and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Sareum Holdings. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note
I honestly don't see how Sareum could raise enough for 2a trial. They'd need £10 million to see them through to getting a deal on 2a data. The market would want a massive discount and we'd be back at 10p with 200 million shares in issue. IMO, where the Edison report says non dillutative funding. That is code for on licence. An on license doesn't dillute the shares. We pay Edison to write those reports by the way.
Depends what you mean by good deal. IMO, they should and I personally think they are looking to licence on 1a data. If the dosing results suggest a high dosage then based on early pre clinical work, we can at least compete with more established drugs. But a 1a deal will definitely mean a lower upfront with bio bucks type milestones as it progresses to market. If the upfront us enough to put 1802 in trials and keep the lights on then, I'd say that a good deal but it does mean another 2 to 3 years before the real value shows. We're heading for a transitional period. The dillution has allowed some to massively build their holding whilst others are still massively under water. If we are talking takeover, The balance will have shifted. Where as once the LTH were united in what they would accept. Some can accept much lower offers and get out with what they wanted. I still think, if all goes well, Sareum are heading for a £2 billion valuation so I'd be really disappointed if we got less than £10 but, post dillution that's a £1.1 billion mc now. However, the deal is the deal. We'll have to wait and see what the board thinks is fair value.
Jeez, this site!
Right at the end of this interview, Tim mentions going shopping for a compound. https://youtu.be/h6zdOkooHzY?si=ngpBi-9TsgQY6it6
Tim mentioned aquiring a molecule in either a proactive interview or investormeets Q&A. Can't remember which. It woukd be great if Aurora could be resurrected but the science is done now, it would need a third party to have look and all that woukd need is cash. Once 1802 is in clinics, then Tim and John will be just sat around waiting like the rest of us.
I disagree, the Sareum business model is, and has always been to license pre or early clinical. Unless externally funded, 2a pivots away from that model. They will need £10 million for 2a and running cost to get to 2a Sara readout. Plus they need cash for 1802 development. I can't see the sp going much above 50p until the risk of a raise has been removed because why would you buy now if you could buy cheaper in the autumn? The pivot to 2a means a licence is inbound IMO. And I support that, even if the upfront is lower. I'm here until end of p2 anyway.
I think we'd all like a buyout and as, I've said before, I'd be disappointed with anything less than £10 pound a share. I don't think we are anywhere near that kind of valuation. More importantly, I don't think our board can get us there in a timely manner whilst at the same time, delivering shareholder value. IMO the board have gone as far as they can with Sareum and the compounds. They've done a good job over the last 15 years or so but have been shown lacking in some areas in the last 2/3 years. It's time to on license and get some experts to push it forward. Get a good upfront, get 1802 into a similar position then maybe buy in a compound to develop while we wait. The above is litterally the Sareum business model and what all LTH invested in all those years ago.
Whilst it doesn't hurt to set a high sell price. It doesn't stop shorting the stock. It all depends who your broker is. This method has been debunked a few times on here. For most brokers, if they have your shares, they will loan them, it's as simple as that. Many here spend a lot of time thinking how to protect their investment. The answer is simple. If the compounds work and the company can remove the threat of raises and dillution. Investors, institutional and private will come and the market cap will rise. The aim of this game is not to own as many cheap shares you can. It is to get a good return on the shares you already own.
I still think there is an overhang. There wasn't enough time to offload the full 3 million shares issued before the final tranche were Issued. I think the big sales we saw were RF trying or maybe required to keep under 3%. Like I said all we really know is they have less than 3%.