Prediction on the Fundamentals15 Jul 2025 05:37
Morning fellow penguins, I've been busy crunching a few numbers and let's not be shy:
Sealion's 917Mn barrels recoverable oil at $45/barrel net of operating costs yields $41.265Bn to the operation. Rock's 35% gross before taxes is a rounded $14.443Bn. At a rate of 55000 barrels/day being pumped out, it will take 45 years 7 months to empty Sealion. Annual revenues should be in the region of $317Mn EBITDA and loan repayments.
With a MCap of $14.443Bn and 650Mn shares in issue gives a potential share price of $22 or £16.5 on sustained annual revenues. An annual EPS of 49p and a P/E of 34; both very strong indicators of Rockhopper's profitability.
Many on here talk about a share issue or warrants to raise cash for FID or even a buy-out. Why? We have a pre-FID loan from Navitas to get us to FID. Also, with these fundamentals, there is nothing in them that a lender would not be willing to lend against. I strongly believe warrants or a share issue will not be needed to get us to FID. A buy-out/takeover now would be criminal.
I'm also seeing the company as currently overvalued by market cap based on cash in the bank, but it's these fundamentals and the OM plus Shenandoah sentiment which is keeping the share price buoyant and edging ever higher whilst we await the OM insurance and FID. A word of caution, if news suggests the OM insurer doesn't pay out we could see a retrace to a share price giving a MCap minus the €31Mn. On fundamentals from a current MCap of £400Mn at 61.6p per share, we could see a fall to around 57.4p per share. If so inclined, set your stop-losses appropriately or hold your nerve.
Ripley94, if you are genuinely in this and based on your posts, my advice to you my friend is to stop day trading and top-slicing to plough those profits into other AIM stocks which may not have the same potential as the ROCK. Sustain your holding and sit patiently like many of us here have done for 15+ years now. And don't forget that Sealion isn't the only prospect we have either. We're all in this together chap and we'd be delighted if you were with us too for the ride into a richer retirement. I also apologise to you for my comments yesterday, I don't want to see you as a loser here. That was harsh of me and I regret it.
The market makers will entice you to sell to keep their market liquid, by pushing the price even higher. Keep a tight grip, you'll thank me especially when the dividends start coming every quarter and you auto-reinvest them to build your holding.
If Sam and the team pull this off and I trust they will as they've been hard at it for around 20 years we will do very well from their already handsomely rewarded efforts. I'm confident that as an emerging multi-billion pound company Mid-Cap status is around the corner for us, bringing credibility in the market and greater protections for us retail investors.
I'm holding for payback for serving in the FIs 2010-11 at sea.
I standby to be corrected if I've flu
Sign In
Follow the stocks
