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Many thanks for the responses. Agreed, there are many variables to consider but I have worked on the P2F website's current asking price for a mask. And agreed, large contracts will be probably lead to discounts. My analysis is only indicative and what I'm basing my strategy on. Just shared it as I thought it may help a few nervous holders, that's all.
All IMHO and GLA
Honestopinion,
These figures are today's on what has been confirmed. I'm now working on +0.75p for each 1m increase in P2F's production. Other producers will have costs factor in too but, yes, there is real potential once the mask production starts to be licensed out.
All IMHO and GLA
Oocanibe, exactly.
My analysis has solely focused on the masks based on today's RNS. If RMS is profitable in Gyrometrics and the remaining nano-tech in P2F then it will drive the SP higher. Conversely, if not as profitable, then lower. But, the P2F mask seems to be dominating the valuation with £24m attributed from a Market Cap of £30m so the remaining businesses' profitability or otherwise would move the SP in either direction and dependent upon the actual size of the profits/losses.
All IMHO and GLA.
The RNS today has solidified expectation in P2F by providing firm figures on mask production capacity and potential revenue. That is what has driven the share price down as the market adjusted - NEWS and FACTS - and to a firmer Market Cap based on revenues of an expected 2 million masks per month as we now know it . The potential for masks revenue is now up to £24m per annum based on £1 per mask.
The SP for the last few weeks has been drifting down slowly but steadily as sentiment diminished on no news and delays but what is heartening is that the company's 'sentiment' Market Cap valuation - a 'best guess' - wasn't too far off what we're seeing at the close; a M-Cap of £30m. Today could have seen a much larger drop if the sentiment had been holding the SP higher. How would that have felt?
What we have now though is an equation without unknowns and a truer valuation. This equation is now one from which we can actually make more accurate predictions on future SP rises as production builds, profits are turned into investment in capacity and the company grows. Ignore all the "10-20p by Xmas" rubbish as that would require mask revenue to be far in excess of what we know is currently physically possible to produce.
With the potential for £24m in annual revenue for masks, the remainder of RMS' businesses are valued at £6m giving a £30m Market Cap. That £24m now equates to a SP on the masks business alone of 1.5p. So, with around 1.59 billion shares in issue, for every 1m masks per month increase in production will have the potential to move the SP up by about 0.75p. So, producing the maximum 5m masks per month on one machine is £60m annual revenue which gives a RMS SP valuation of about 4.1p. when adding in the remaining RMS businesses. For masks to realistically move this above 5p per share in the near-term requires additional business in the form of licensing deals and sub-contracted manufacturing announcements which may yet come.
P2F is certainly growing, that's for sure, but it will take time. Today's announcement has been good for investors as it has at last solidified somewhat the company's fundamentals with real facts and figures ahead of the company's accounts being published. What it will also do is stabilise the SP. Once accounts are published, if revenue is better than expected then the SP will rise and if it's less, the market will devalue the SP accordingly. Wild intraday movements are only sentiment driven by the day traders setting the supply/demand signal and aren't indicative of the true value of the company. That's what we've recently seen and the SP may finally now have a chance to settle.
Therefore, sit tight, don't panic and please have PATIENCE. Especially those 'investors' who buy but don't do the research and those who follow the hype for a quick profit and then PANIC. Sells like that are not good for the wallet.
All IMHO and GLA
The only piece missing from this jigsaw is why PR sold his shares. Could it have been to fund this startup? After all, it takes capital which RMS didn’t have much of and further shares placements would have diluted us further. He may have been magnanimous.
The point is, we don’t know.
The fundamental with P2F isn’t masks, it’s the copper nanotechnology ink. This is where the potential is. Once revenues from masks arrive, the company will scale-up. This, for me, makes it an exciting LTH.
However, PR’s shares needs an explanation as I have doubts about future financial and commercial acumen and mistakes being made.
There is too much conjecture and hostility on here and, in the short term, that is damaging. Where else is The Times getting its momentum from?
All IMVHO. GLA
We have a fantastic product set to do very well.
The Times have got their “evidence” of potential wrongdoing from here!
I’d hate to see this never take off now because of the vitriolic statements made here.
Be very careful what we do: threats of EGMs and BOD removal at this stage is all self-harm imo.
Not the 'main event' RNS we were expecting but an important update on the machinery nonetheless. The good news is that it's confirmed and it's coming. Still much going on in the background and this demonstrates that things take time. Be patient.
Just a thought on PR's share sell - RMS's cash in hand wasn't much when they announced they were buying machinery. They even contracted a consultancy firm and paid them in shares. I'm starting to think PR's shares sell was to loan the company cash for starting-up P2F without having to issue more shares and dilute our holdings. If true, that would be dedication to the cause.
All IMHO.
Just hold your nerve...
MrMerlot - good spot and maybe. That could be a useful find to help decipher what may be happening behind the scenes. Possibly yet another piece of the background picture's jigsaw puzzle falling into place. 'Ducks' are all being lined up first...
Zulu...
It’s everything to do with shares!
Number of shares in issue multiplied by current share price equals market capitalisation.
A fundamental every investor should understand.
Thanks for this pointless inanity this evening. There are a lot of empty heads just making pointless noise here.
I’d recommend serious investors read the company’s documents and you will understand who holds shares, where they are held, how BRH fitted in and how P2F can’t be sold by Dr GC as he is not its owner anymore. RMS is and, in turn, that makes us shareholders its owner. Dr GC is a significant shareholder but does not meet the 30% criteria for a buy out (as far as we’re currently aware). We shareholders have the current rights and we have the say and the votes at general meetings. A sale, a takeover, a hostile takeover or a reverse takeover are down to shareholders to decide. That takes time to draw-up and approve and would absorb valuable management time and resource better spent developing manufacture and sales. So, why would RMS sell this now when it’s on the cusp of generating significant revenues for the company to meet its stated aims - near-term growth?
It’s all published. Most of what is on here is conjecture.
Research it and then comment.
And, Investbest123. I’ve read your posts as you suggested and some of the language you’ve used indicates you may be in the USA. If so, the way you’re dismissing mask wearing is not surprising and we all know how well it’s going over there for you.
Masks aren’t a political statement, they prevent harm and they save lives. If they didn’t, why are any made at all?
Let’s just hold our nerve.
Volume movement is low atm and the spread quite broad for this company but the RNS about COVID-19 ten days ago was positive.
No debt, liquidity and limited concern over operations.
Now, three potentially positive things to expect.
Annual accounts, OM arbitration result and OPEC+ decision to stabilise oil supply and sustain prices around $40/bbl and thus jobs across the globe. Oil demand WILL return too.
I bought DES in 2010, bought out by FOGL then bought out by RKH. I’m watching and waiting with real interest too. Good luck, stay safe.