Member Info for Porky9

@PM2022

As i say I'm NOT an advocate for APTA and you need to DYOR and explore that one over on the APTA stock board but, my understanding VERY roughly for comparison purposes:-

APTA

The business in the current year is expected to deliver revenue of £1.75m, further it won 4 contracts valued at £507k and recently added two more declared at £ 219k hence building revenues again nicely.

It's cash burn is expected to be £3.5m and it just raised £3.6m in a 1p placing and last week added a further £310k to its capital - So it has a confirmed cash runway of just over a year. Its market cap is circa £5.5m. So it at least has revenue and cash.

VAL

Has delivered ZERO revenue during its entire trading history other than an undeclared contract value for a three month lab job. Further, its lab model is based on a scientist adding £175k revenue / £25k bottom line of which they employ three. Its labour intensive work hance they need to win both lots of contract and employ more staff to service them.

It has a cash burn of £2.4m and the business has about a 12 WEEK cash runway left before it needs funds. AS at today its market cap is £ 6.5m.

So out of the two IMO APTA is the significantly stronger play. Once VAL sorts its working capital situation then picture may look better but that's down to share holder support. Its hard to raise cash for working capital when the investee business continually fails to deliver. Further with 13 raises (5 under Suzy and a 6th on its way) and 3 125:1 share consolidations Investors are sick of the "Jam tomorrow" story and want results.

Further, I don't buy the VAL hype about 201. my view is that THX do not need to complete as they know the IP anyhow nor will they be able to raise capital despite all these Murphy rumours I genuinely don't believe after two years the deal will come good. BUT even if it did they are so far down the track now that all it would deliver is 5 months cash burn. Missed opportunity frankly.

As for CLX i agree its their best hope but its pre clinical and IMO is at least two years off but i could be proven wrong. See what they deliver.

The burning question from my perspective is can VAL secure support or not and at what price? In this market they will do very well to get cash at 2p but not long to find out.

No I'm not a massive fan of APTA, not 100% confident the board wont revert back to excess pay/ benefits again BUT they have a good window to change things, signs are good but moreover they have the cash runway (£3.6m raised) to do it, hence time on their side. Out of the two APTA is the significantly stronger play. Further as Adam is a Director over at APTA he can actually influence change and direction to make it a success. I stand by my call that Adam should at least de-risk here and move it to APTA. That's business not personal.

You keep posting about 4D but its old news now. These are penny shares they either work out or they don't.

As for CLX its only worth what someone will ultimately pay for it - that's how it is but its a couple of years off IMO.

Good luck anyhow. VAL will either secure placing support or they wont - its that simple and we will know soon enough.

Very Good @Paternostpauper

Suggest you add now, dig deep and fill your boots - Good Luck

I don’t buy any of the spin, meanwhile the BOD don’t buy the stock

They have about 12 weeks cash runway left

Let’s see what they can secure. I absolutely stand by my prediction:-

Placing at 1-2p IF they can secure support and that’s a big IF with current cash burn.

Await to be proven wrong.

@PM2022

Yes, King ramper it’s been 3 months, I would be more concerned frankly. Maybe they can’t find support? Have you considered that?

@Sixthavenue

Not a disaster in the making, i never said that.

The lab concept will take time and money. It will require further placings and the board have been open and transparent about that. That is what the AIM market is for, to raise capital to grow.

The problem is that the market conditions have changed and as such placings come at significant discounts, By my rough calculation, as it stands they need a raise of about £2.4m to give them a 12 mth runway. Yes sure a few lab wins here or there can add however the bulk of this working capital requirement i believe will come from shareholders.

Lets see what happens but on the basis of there being only a few weeks to go they will need to start sorting this soon.

This is the point i'm making. Good luck

@Fredd1eboy

You mention countless times that the SP fall is the fault of shareholders. No, it is NOT. The business has lost the support of its main investors by not delivering what they said they would. Its that simple. There won’t be a desperate placing at 6p, you are kidding, aren’t you? it will be at 1p or 2p at best now depending on how much they can get support for/ if they can. They have circa 12 weeks cash runway left. Frankly, I will be mega impressed if this board can secure placing support this time. Markets have changed.

As for the only declared shareholder left, Adam, the BOD did not give him a NED position, yet another blunder despite him saving their skins. He is now on the APTA board. He holds 7,750,000 shares here. The guy seriously needs to de-risk this asap as he’s about to lose a further 70%+ of his money when the placing lands. Any moment if not already the board will be saying to Adam, we have launched the Lab, got some lab orders in but need to increase working capital for 2024, can you tip up another 500k to support a placing? The guy’s money would work smarter for him in APTA where he has some control but each to own.

Finally, @Fredd1eboy, you think the BOD have done a good job do you? Earnt their keep? Working hard to deliver investor returns? Their bonus payments justified. Not sure everyone else agrees and had it not been for Adam, changes at the AGM would have been enforced.

Good luck to you anyhow your money, your call but as for who's at fault, if you want to go there, it is firmly at the door of the board NOT the VAL shareholders.

Pork's

@PatientInvestor (Iceman)

Oh, come off it, there was an absolute glut of fluff news releases in the run up to the AGM in a totally desperate attempt to get investors onside do I really need to go there?

You think her confidence and others is noteworthy, do you? Really? It’s been blunder after blunder and not one of the board has had confidence to Buy shares and we heard all the reasons why they wouldn’t, do you need me to remind you of them all again including Stella’s Gerald Ratner moment?

And as for her confidence in THX, we are two years on and still waiting to see if they can get funded. Not our problem and further its not just lost income that SH have had to pay for via placements, its lost time. Two years of time that could have been in phased trials so don’t even try me on her confidence in THX. Totally misplaced.

As for rumours, there has been countless rumours, not least the one a few months back where a list of institutional investors backing THX was on Twitter. Yet another P&D attempt to get the SP up. Expect more of them.

Next news will be the lab launch, possible some undeclared value lab wins, some collab agreements or other such fluff then whack, in comes the discounted placing RNS. Watch this space. I put cash from THX landing as zero chance and even if by some miracle it did they would still need to raise same again to plug the cash burn.

You are just hoping if the SP can pump a bit shortly and sucker some investors in, the placing wont be so dilutive.

Good luck to you anyhow,

Pork's

Some here remain completely deluded, please don't get emotionally involved. I am trying to be helpful for those not following the market. This is a penny share play on the AIM and will be volatile.

Market conditions for both M&A and capital raising remain currently dire. More so in the Biotech sector. Its been dire for the last 18 mth's and where we do see deals they are either massively discounted or negotiated down. Hopefully that will improve in the next two years but for now it remains poor. You have seen the deals that APTA and PYC had to do to get cash in. Its ugly.

Most here know my thoughts on this share play, they need a BOD restructure, need to materially reduce cash burn, wrong time to start up a lab business and they need a capital raise shortly which can only come at discount but that's something else.

I can't say if there is anything in this current Murphy story. If there was I would expect VAL to update shareholders and frankly in this market even if it was a possibility i would expect THX to renegotiate terms anyhow, the costs for new phase one and phase two trails come to about 30m so at the moment i kind of take this rumour with a pinch of salt. Murphy have a reasonable mcap but not massive cash reserves its alleged they are already going to fund three AZN lines through phase trials so it would be tough. The profile indicates they also look for property assets:-

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/MURY-CANYPAR-135664029/news/MURPHY-CANYON-ACQUISITION-CORP-Management-s-Discussion-and-Analysis-of-Financial-Condition-and-Res-43361386/

I'm not saying its impossible but looks very unlikely to me and we always get these stupid rumours just prior to a raise.

I think if you review the investment case here today and are still happy that your reason for investing today is the same as it was when you originally started then fair enough, still by it.

Otherwise i think you have to accept that they will need more cash to make it work, you should get lab opening news soon and you should see some lab wins soon, they cant deliver zero but ultimately this will take a lot of time and money. The cash burn is £2.3m. I'm confident VAL will secure at least some placing cash because they are veterans at it but SH need to accept further dilution and placings on its journey.

I'm not convinced the BOD have acted that well in SH interests but heck, the AIM sector is like a casino at the best of times and this is not an isolated case is it. For those holding on in, i hope Suzy comes up with the goods for you. Its tough all round currently.

Good luck.

LMOL

Code 2 - TWO of the board members are having another bonus :)

or

Code 2 - Suzy is having a pay rise for all her hard work from 160k to TWO hundred thousand a year.

or

Code 2 - TWO times as many forum posts here to share trades

or

THX will get exclusivity for another TWO years

I'm off before the ramping crew see my posts, catch up in a few weeks at the placing

Byeeeeeee

Most likely the code 2 means:-

Placing Inbound at 2p :)

You don't want Spreadex anywhere near this - agree

You see that post from @Hepran is a beautiful example of a pump post just pre market open but if it can help some 1p holders exit at good gains they can come back in at the next placing or on the fall back.

Pump Punters run the risk of taking a beating this time which is rather funny to watch but that's the name of the game.

@Kidlington

Because you have traders like @TrickyEFC posting to pump and you can see the trade activity on L2

At the end of the day its a positive as the more penny holders you flush out at 100% gain the better but they are doing this now pre the annual results statement due end of the month for a reason and that's because we already know it wont make great reading.

Ideally what PYC need is a TR1 from an II or Investment house to take a chunk of stock and it remain in sticky hands. Its currently just punt money. Whilst you cant predict a share price my view is this will settle back towards the penny again until they deliver proof they can at least reach break even then place again at 1p.

The BE point as long as costs don't increase further is Revenue of £1.260,000. The results end of this month should confirm Revenue of £670,000 and with the recent placing money about £500k cash and cash equivalents left at end of last June.

They must diversify and the new COO Peter IMO can help with this. Everyone has an opinion but if i had taken this role, i would settle in, start getting my ducks in a row, look at some bolt on services they can diversify into and raise about £500k in the new year/first quarter to support the transition support the placing and issue myself a load of options on success.

If you are a LTH here you will need to wait that bit longer as i see it but my call is Jim will have no option but to do a further raise because they need to win too much business now to get to break even and it will take longer and even if they win contracts they need the working capital to support cash flow and he needs cash to diversify.

This is why I'm saying its just P&D cash, if you evaluate it you would support next placing soon, probably at a 1p again if Peter can deliver a plan to take the business forwards, I believe you and Laura2022 will get your day in the sun it will just take a bit longer.

Nice work, paying off

@moniman

I hear you and you are right to be skeptical as we do see it all to often with penny shares.

In res 10, he is clearly wanting authority for headroom for the issue of just over £4m of shares. Not quite clear on res 11, is he implying that if 10 gets past it will include warrants for another£2.5m of shares or a retail offer or something else?

Bottom line is he has specified a time period of between this AGM and the next one so it reads to me that he already knows he is going to issue more shares for some purpose shortly otherwise why request authority?

@Legalwolf

Just wanted to thank you for taking the time to post #12.12 it’s exactly how it is.

I’m finding the value of LSE BBs per sae to be of low value these days when trying to evaluate for those exact same reasons. In many cases posters on numerous forums really just want to be reassured about their decision to buy and prefer to keep the boards as echo chambers.

It’s just such a shame as there are some bloody good researchers out there, often in the specific industry the stocks in that won’t post something key if it could be deemed as negative, yet I want to hear from these posters especially if I’m considering a significant investment.

Good luck with your stock calls

@Latorre1690

Yes, indeed you are right, I guess it could have been worse 250m new shares as you say although as It was on a book build basis split between the house brokers Liberum Capital and Peterhouse Capital, we don’t know the splits but let’s call it £3m+ each the amount raised was probably as much as they could get from each respective investor base.

My issue with it is that it represents I think what 12% odd yet bet you any money there won’t be on TR1 in there, it will all be small trader money with the broker buying the shares for the client then working the sells.

Would be nice if it went into sticky hands, an II or even a small boutique investment house or even a major partner taking a position for longer term.

Anyhow, it’s done, no going back just keeping everything crossed for a discovery

Here’s to a positive week ahead

Having used The GP Service three times now i do think its excellent, in fact i really rate it.

However, that being said the numbers just don't make it viable. Not enough people like me will pay especially if they can get it for free on the NHS.

I like the way they are using the GP Service technology to power a service for people to buy their Canabis products albeit its expensive. I don't know why they don't license out the technology to other medical verticals such as these fat injections that you can only get going private.

Some thought required to get this area of the business revenues higher

@passive

Well they can hardly class themselves as a "serial acquirer of software business" with a massive pipeline when the last deal they did was back at the start of Jan and we are now in September!!

Either that or they are setting the acquisition price bar so low they cant get any takers? You wonder what exactly they have they been doing the last 9 months? Instead of the target must be under X level or Y price and making up lists of rules they need to just go out there and find quality software plays that will ultimately help them deliver stronger group revenues and profits. I expected them to have at least 10 new deals signed up by now not just 4.

Lets hope this placing albeit not a big increase share price for longer term holders at least kick starts growth. Currently they are just stagnating.

See how events unfold.

@LondonMarket

Likely catching a cold just simply as a result of the general economic market downturn post covid. Trouble is the financial institutions always want someone to blame. Kohler going is of course a loss to this business.

@Veteran10

I really like your idea about video games, you should email it to the board. They need to innovate with new ideas and expand into new lines for sure otherwise they will just sink further as cheap train set tat just floods the market and Hornby seen as just being a very expensive provider for historic collectors

@Wyndrum

I echo your thoughts, just maybe due to all the previous delays and issues prior to them buying own rig they had little choice but i cant lie, i was bloody disappointed that Lorna went for a highly dilutive placing at 6p and flooded us with another 112m shares pre spud.

I did comment a couple of weeks back prior to that placing confirmation that i had a heavy feeling following her interview she was going to do that. I really wanted them to raise post spud. The thing is IF they get success the money is not an issue is it and as shareholders we would all share in that success. IF on the other hand they draw a blank, i totally get that they would struggle to get a placing done in those circumstances and possibly be out of business.

But like most of these CEOs in listed companies its all about self preservation first, b@llox to the shareholders, IF Lorna was totally confident in delivering a result she would crack on with the spud asap and confirm same, get results then get more cash at a significantly higher Share Price. What she has done is effectively hedged her bets frankly, in case things don't work out, she can keep her job and try again.

We are where we are i guess, lets hope for success soon, in the meantime no doubt we will now have to endure all the 6p placing muppets holding us back selling into any price uplift pre the spud something Lorna could have helped avoid if she had been confident, strapped a pair on and agreed to raise at a materially higher SP on success.

See how it goes, good luck.