Member Info for Porky9

Obviously, we are only at the half way point and the release of the audited full year figures will give us the clarity we need regarding world wide sales but i really do believe that our 2021 H1 trading result will be significantly stronger than the 2020 H2 figures.

For the Full 2021 year Broker Forecasts have Novacyt down for 270m Revenue, 173m EBITDA and 278m cash at bank.
https://novacyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/SP-Angel-Update-04.02.2021.pdf

You really would think that at this point our SP would be materially higher than an effective PE Ratio of >2

Anyhow, it is what it is, GLA

MCAP £ 73m
Revenue £ 400k and Loss £ 2.9m

Its not on its own, there are various other stocks pumped up on HYPE that have incredible MCAPS - I'm only Jealous that we have such a diabolically low MCAP despite delivering fantastic results.

You couldn't make it up.

Swiss testing giant Roche is downplaying the longer-term prospects of significant antigen testing for COVID-19, arguing that in largely vaccinated populations the sensitivity of PCR will be needed.
https://www.medtechdive.com/news/roche-bets-covid-19-vaccination-drive-to-favor-pcr-over-antigen-testing/597237/

As Roche supply both PCR and LFTs they are qualified to comment. What it does tell us that Testing is going to be around a long time.

Frankly, even using Novacyts reduced 2024 revenue estimates on a low PE Ratio would give us a stronger SP than where we are today, frustrating to say the least.

GLA

@Junior2020
How about every time you post a negative post on here I make the effort to go over to the AVCT board and return the favour?
Please stop.
Deek's is passionate against the use of LFTs used in a mass testing way, quite rightly imo and further has proven evidence to support his argument. He is not of low reputation, he is a scientist that you don't agree with as you own shares in a business trying to get a LFT validated and into the market.

As far as i'm concerned todays RNS was a great thing. They are clearly leading the market and it confirmed the technology is a Genotype Assay. In my opinion, and its just my opinion i think the RNS was rushed out and i will explain why i think so.

If you read this correction in genomeweb:-
https://www.genomeweb.com/molecular-diagnostics/novacyt-get-ce-mark-sars-cov-2-variant-test#.YFvo99Jxc2w
The RNS this morning gave the impression "Launch of CE Mark Test" then said "Launch later this week" and will also be seeking emergency use as a research tool. So as at today, the product does not have the CE Mark but it is expected this week and they are seeking FDA approval.

Meanwhile on Monday the government confirmed they were testing a Genotype technology on trial BUT did not specify Novacyt directly. This is because there will be a non disclosure contract in place.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/groundbreaking-new-technology-to-detect-known-variants-of-concern

Now i don't know French regulations BUT i'm guessing that just like our Regulatory News Service a business has to issue an RNS on anything that could materially affect the trading or Share Price of the business possibly within a tight time frame such as 48hrs.

Potentially, a major UK government contract is being considered but they are under a Non disclosure agreement so this is in direct contrast to their legal requirement on the French market.

Now I'm major bullish on NCYT as everyone knows but even i know they update the market and report at absolute snails pace usually. They do nothing in a hurry. This RNS could well of waited until next Monday. At that point the CE Mark would be issued and the RNS would say "CE Mark grated today... in respect of Veriflex...." but they didn't, it went out today less than 48hrs after that government notice and i believe it was for compliance reasons so when the contract lands they can claim that the market was made aware of this material fact in the update on Wednesday.

If anyone has a view on this i would appreciate it?
I'm totally convinced we are just being kept in the dark here for a reason, at some point full disclosure will land for sure maybe next week on the turn of the next financial year who knows BUT it is coming

GLA

Little point even discussing the reporting of quarter data. This is not a Nasdaq listed business where they report every quarter. It's on the Bourse and the AIM and as such every six months is all that is required.

The other factor is that when they put out an RNS they have to do two of them and comply with two lots of regulations and in two languages. This is where errors can show and probably more effort for the company than its worth.

Frankly, this needs to move off the Bourse imo, i have mentioned it loads of times, its not likely due to the history but we secure next to very little business out of France anyhow and it feels like an opportunity better spent elsewhere.

I totally agree with everyone here that clarity of numbers would be a good thing and most helpful. I highly suspect that revenues for this first quarter are well ahead of the forecast but lets be realistic, we wont know for sure until the H1 is out and that will be July.

The full detailed accounts out in April will at least provide the full clarity on the World wide sales position which will be helpful and i look forward to that!!

Late today two reports out one in the Telegraph (pay wall) and one in the guardian found here:-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/24/covid-rapid-lateral-flow-tests-should-not-be-used-for-test-and-release

Now there is just little point in even discussing the use of LFTs in schools as we have discussed it to death and irrespective of the science the government are just going to ignore it anyway and carry on with the current failed policy.

So policy in schools is unlikely to change anytime soon.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/experts-cochrane-government-university-of-birmingham-liverpool-b926055.html
If it was up to me, i would push for saliva PCR tests and use the capacity in the test and trace labs for rapid turnaround knowing that the take up rates would be higher and they would have virtual total accuracy and i know many here would agree however, its not up to me and we are stuck with this shambles of a policy.

Governments next move is to look at vaccinating school children and i can see that happening later this year so this will be the next push.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/children-vaccine-coronavirus-teenagers-under-18s-august-b925900.html

So in the meantime we have little option but to accept this is the government policy, we can't change it irrespective of how idiotic it is.

My best bet is they will continue using the cheap cr@p from china despite the rhetoric about buying British, cheap is best, accept the interruptions and infection rates as collateral damage and then move forward with the vaccination policy. Only thing to scupper this plan is if Variants cause more havoc so they will need a policy alongside to ensure variants are detected.

It's evident to me that a lot of games are played. BUT ultimately the fundamentals will right the SP situation.

You could argue that as the the tax year end is fast approaching, why give those that are looking to exit and capitalise on profits even more now if they are going to sell anyhow?

It could actually work to our advantage if contracts are disclosed after 5/4 so a week on Tuesday would be fine for me and no pressure on sellers as it would fall into the next tax year?

I'm not in any hurry that's for sure but like everyone else i cant deny that I'm disappointed we closed down 2% on what was a cracking RNS - The company could not do more really today imo.

I don't think todays RNS could be any clearer;
"VariPLEX was the latest addition to its SNPsig PCR genotyping assay portfolio"
Genotype Assay

Government notice on Monday:-
The technology – known as ‘genotype assay testing’ – is set to halve the time it currently takes to identify if a positive COVID-19 sample contains a variant of concern, and could be used in addition to standard testing for COVID-19 to identify cases quickly.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/groundbreaking-new-technology-to-detect-known-variants-of-concern

Meanwhile, Recruitment continues, 57 vacancies and counting. This is no longer a case of IF but WHEN

Certainly not the time to be out of this one. Take a chill, hold onto your golden tickets and get comfortable in your seat. All lining up perfectly.

GLA.

Looking for a strong afternoon trading session thanks to a better US outlook.

Should close well into the Blue.

GLA

Market wide issue - If you look there has been a wide mark down in all covid related stocks and much of the market marked down this morning but it looks like the USA open is bringing better news and stocks per se are recovering.

Lets face it the pandemic unfortunately is getting worse not better, if anything revenues for Novacyt are going to keep growing...

Back in the blue now so should have a more positive afternoon

@Ad4you
I agree. I must have read that document about three times last week. I added that same day. It looks like an absolute certain bet to me?
My gut feeling here is that three things are about to land (before a whale swallows us whole):-
a) Acquisition of CignPost - Convinced this is going to happen as its just fits with the mobile labs expansion.
b) Minimum 2yr DHSC contract for Lab testing of Variants.
c) Contract for further expansion of Q machines across the NHS

As far as im concerned, investing in Novacyt at this materially undervalued price is a no brainer because even if NONE of the above came through the H1 is going to be superb and likely above forecasts and the cash pile at the end of H1 will be at least £ 160m. Win Win

And when that DHSC contract lands anything sub £ 10 is going to look ridiculously cheap...
Here's the link again to the government article:-
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/groundbreaking-new-technology-to-detect-known-variants-of-concern

This is fantastic news

What will be the real game changer is IF we find out this is the test that the DHSC are using..... that contract could well be serious....

GLA

LMOL
Absolutely brilliant, crying with laughter, has to be the best post ever.

@MacTrader
LOL - Indeed Last thing we need is anything further to do with Bats, done enough damage :)

@Wilson63
Thinking of you. Stay strong. Over the worst now on the up from here...
You take care now
Pork's

Solid Positivity and a great change in sentiment
We all await #Novacyts next move which has to land any moment now...
Whilst the third wave of the virus sweeps Europe Testing volumes remain higher than ever .
Recruitment across all 7 NHS Territories continues
H1 should deliver results ahead of expectations
£ 130m+ war chest of cash for acquisitions and a deal can't be far off?
Second quarter advances due to be confirmed shortly
Well positioned for the next leg up in the Share Price
GLA

@Bing007
I don't think i can top that... LMOL
Its playing like an ear worm in my head now, it was bad enough before..

Its an Interesting one..

Novacyt lack an INFORMATICS section to the business if they are to become a fully rounded Diagnostics group. They need one imo.

YOTI meanwhile could fill that gap however they have a focus on digital identification and £48m of debt. Revenues are non existent (£22k) chasing this direction. In Novacyt's stable its possible they could use tech and turn the revenues around?

Novacyt could afford to do it but maybe there are better Informatics options out there?. Also, do the existing backers of YOTI want to keep propping it up with ever increasing amounts of capital?