Member Info for Popeye62

Pig - I do hope you don't mind me addressing you under that name, but you always sign off as Pig. I did have a look at Capita, as you suggested, and I felt that perhaps I had missed the boat on that one. I'm still going to hold a fair amount of BHP. I appreciate that the price of iron is down from the highs seen in May, but I think iron ore will settle around the $150 mark, either late this year or early next year. Steel prices are still very close to their years high, and the Chinese are creating a squeeze on steel prices, but stocks are being depleted. We've also got the quarterly trading update next month for BHP. Good luck. Atb Popeye.

Capitalistpig - I will be putting a chunk back into BAT, IMB, Aviva and Direct Line. Remember Aviva are going to return a large sum to shareholders. I think they will pay a special dividend, as will I think Direct Line. Have look back through the dividend history on Direct Line, and their special dividend. BHP certainly looking better today. Good luck. Atb Popeye.

nextdeal - I will also reduce significantly at 2000p, if it gets there anytime soon. At the very least I will sell the shares I purchased today. I will still like to keep some in my portfolio for the future, as I think that countries around the world will embark on huge infrastructure projects to stimulate their economies. Atb Popeye.

When I started to type my last message the BHP price was 1810p, by the time I had finished typing the price had moved to 1847p!!! I would expect this from an AIM stock, not from a top FTSE100 company. I'm not complaining, because my losses are reducing rapidly!!! I do hope it continues, and can get back above 2000p sometime soon. Good luck all. Atb Popeye.

I've added 4709 shares today at under 1780p. I'm now nursing a pretty hefty loss on this one, and by adding today, I've brought my average down to 2021p. I've still got the 144p dividend to come, which will go straight back into BHP. I'm pretty shocked the way it's been battered today, considering it dropped by a £1 on Friday. All this year it's remained above 2000p, and then suddenly it's 1770p!!! On the back of excellent results.

MoneyPit - I do hope you are well, and have enjoyed the recent mini heatwave. In the 6 monthly intererims, the base case scenario target for year ending 2022 is 90% of 2019 attendance. Personally I think they're going to struggle to achieve this ambitious target, which will mean Cineworld taking on more debt, which I don't think will be an option or afforded to them. Atb. Popeye.

MoneyPit - I do hope you are well, and have enjoyed the recent mini heatwave. In the 6 monthly intererims, the base case scenario target for year ending 2022 is 90% of 2019 attendance. Personally I think they're going to struggle to achieve this ambitious target, which will mean Cineworld taking on more debt, which I don't think will be an option or afforded to them. Atb. Popeye.

There was sell after hours last Thursday of 2,440,000 shares. That was a hedge fund adding to their short position. The trade was struck at below 62p, which indicates that the shorts see value in their position at 62p and below, and will continue to add to their positions, there's a long way to go yet. Someone on here, did post last Thursday, that it was a buy, which was absolutely ludicrous!!! Cineworld need a base case scenario of 60% of 2019 attendance, which unfortunately they are falling well short of. Even if they could achieve 60%, this wouldn't be suffice to service the debt. Interest payments for 2019 were $541m, and $717m for 2020, that's an increase of $176 in Interest payments. They only made a profit of $180m in 2019!!! Unfortunately Cineworld is drowning in debt and an awful lot of it. They're actually using debt to pay debt??? Some of their loans are attracting interest rates of 7% with PIK rates of 8.25%. The recent $200m facility was a lifeline, as Cineworld desperately needed liquidity. The Hedge funds are currently circling Cineworld like wolves. They select their prey with a lot of in depth research. I suggest that some of the posters on here do the same, and take a good long look at the accounts, and don't get too immersed with all the hyping and ramping. Good luck all. DYOR. Atb. Popeye .

Capitalistpig - China may well want to get it's hands on the copper in Afghanistan, but I can tell you it won't happen. Russia, America and it's allies have been fighting wars in Afghanistan, for the Chinese to then come along and align itself with the Taliban!!! It's not happening!!! The west would not allow it. The Taliban are not exactly a good advertisement for trade. If China were to mine in Afghanistan, the west would cease to trade with China, as it would be seen to be aiding and supporting the Taliban. With the regards to the current SP, I believe this is just temporary, and will recover later this year, and early next year, as will commodities, as the world reopens fully. Macquarie have updated their price target to $55, with a full year dividend of $3.60, which equates to £2.60 for 2022. I'm looking to receiving my £1.44 final dividend and collecting next years dividends. At the current price I will be adding more shares, and reinvesting the dividend, as will a vast majority of shareholders, when it's paid on the 21st September. Good luck. Atb Popeye.

Interesting debate regarding where the SP will be in the coming week, and also Interesting to note the majority of the contributors, see it moving higher. My own personal view is that the SP will close below 60p by Friday, and will then continue to decline into the 40's. Recently, one poster was predicting 150p by the end of September, followed by a revised price of 80p, and then followed by a further revision of 80p by the end of October!!! I don't see any of these materialising anytime soon, in the current format. The company desperately needs to do a rights issue, to reduce the debt pile, and associated interest payments. Whether this is carried out via a US listing, or an all out rights issue, the sooner it's carried out the better. There's a hell a lot of other companies that have already gone down this route, that had a healthier balance sheet than Cineworld. I will also stick my neck out, and predict that the declared shorts will be in double figures by the end of October, and close to 12% by the end of the year. Come on Cineworld, get that raise out of the way, and put to bed. Shareholders in the long term will be better off with a huge dilution, as opposed to what will unfold with no restructuring of the balance sheet. GLA. Atb Popeye.

I was in RMS last year, and done quite well trading it. Obviously the price was a lot higher then. I noticed recently, prior the name change that the SP dropped to 0.65p, then there was a rally and now it appears to be retreating again. Does anyone see this going back to 0.65p again in the near future? I must say, it has been a bit of a disappointment, especially when Gareth was all over the news, and those directors were selling their entire holdings at 5p!!! Good luck all. Atb Popeye.

MoneyPit - I think those BO figures are extremely poor. Over a 16 week period, they have averaged 40.5% of 2019, and that's with cinemas fully reopened.

With regards to brokers analyst forecasts, I take them with a pinch of salt, and certainly don't base my investments on them. My interpretation of future profits, are solely based on my own research and personal opinion. I've poured over the balance sheet many times, and I struggle to see how they can meaningful headway without a huge debt reduction. The question is? How will this be achieved? I also note that shorts have been creeping up recently, and I fear that they still have higher to go. We need to start seeing a huge reduction in Covid19, and the sooner the better. Atb.

HNS_77 - Thank you for sharing. Obviously the information is limited, but I can access that information myself. What is the post tax profit forecasts for 2021-2023? Atb.

Please share the modeling forecasts. I would be interested to see them??? Net interest payments for 2020 were 717.20M. Factor those interest payments payments into the 2019 revenue, and add a bit more, as we know debt and interest payments have risen since December 31st 2020 accounts. I look forward to seeing the forecasts.

MoneyPit - I think Trendz has raised a valid question. In 2019 Cineworld's profit was 180m with greatly reduced interest payments, to where they are currently. If Cineworld could get back to the revenue of 2019 it would still be a loss making enterprise, with their current interest payments on outstanding debt. Personally I also question the $1bn mkt cap??? I certainly don't think Cineworld will disappear, but they definitely need a massive refinance, and that will entail a massive dilution to existing shareholders. Also putting money into escrow, and making access conditional for liquidity purposes is also worrying. Basically Cineworld is being run by the seat of it pants, and this in no fault of the management, it's all down to a worldwide pandemic. The financials for 2019 were not that impressive, unfortunately Cineworld embarked on a massive expansion and the wrong time. It's only a matter of time until they restructure the balance sheet, and unfortunately as always shareholders will feel the brunt of the pain!!! As always, the banks and the bondholders will be absolutely fine, as they will end up with the equity. Good luck.

bernard76 - Thank you for clarifying. I appreciate that you can buy and sell BHP on the NYSE via Hargreaves Lansdowne, but I don't think you can trade shares on the ASX. Will I end up with ASX shares, when BHP make their main listing on the ASX? Atb Popeye.

Pig - Thank you for your analysis, it's much appreciated. So far the SP hasn't dropped the entire dividend. Let's see where we are by the end of the month. Also I think there will be high demand for iron ore going forward, with the world opening up from Covid19. My personal opinion is, countries will embark on massive, and ambitious construction projects, to kick start their economies. Good luck. Atb Popeye.

Pig - Did you hold for the dividend or sell? I'm not sue what happens if they do make their main listing on the ASX. Will I keep my original shares? Hargreaves Lansdowne doesn't accommodate for ASX shares. Will it make a difference, because they will still have an LSE listing? I would be interested to know.

Bonkers - You certainly won't here me saying that. I don't think for one minute, anyone takes BC comments seriously!!! Unfortunately we lost a really good poster in Funinvestor, because of BC, I do hope that he returns, because like yourself he has a level headed balanced approach to the stock. Cineworld is still a very high risk play, they're certainly not out of the woods yet, although the climate is gradually improving for them, but there is still a few bumps in the road. My concern is that for full year 2021 and 2022, they will not cover their interest payments, hence why the shorts are there. Cineworld will always be there, but I'm not sure in what form. The company most definitely needs finacial restructuring, and the sooner the better, until then the price will continue to move sideways or downwards. Good luck. Atb Popeye.

Hi Capitalistpig. You have a lot lower average in BHP than me, so I fully understand and appreciate your thoughts regarding selling prior to ex-dividend. Today was absolutely brilliant, we made up all the losses from yesterday, and also got a little bonus on top. I agree, I still think 2400p is doable by next Wednesday. It may not close at 2400p or above by Wednesday, but I do believe that it will get within touching distance. I think with regards to Cine, it will move higher, given time and an improving Covid19 situation. Unfortunately coronavirus is still with us, and we need to see some real improvement, with regards to the daily numbers coming down significantly. Good luck with Cine, you don't need any luck with BHP, because you've already made a packet!!! Have a great weekend. Atb Popeye.