Member Info for Pogo001

Blanchflower

This is how the terrestrial television advertising market looks like everywhere. However, ITV is a conglomerate of mutually complementary parts. This creates and multiplies the value of this company. That is why I do not believe that the main shareholders will agree to divide and sell it into parts, same as this CEO. The advertising market is evolving, regulatory changes are coming in the EU, and after this these changes will lead to the adjustment of regulations in the UK. These changes should allow terrestrial television to take a larger piece of the pie of this business. So generally it is a mistake to look at ITV only from the position of an advertising recipient, scrolling through recorded fragments and devouring another packet of crisps. This business make money - good money with low risk and if you are comparing ITV's valuation against its peers, it is clear that it is undervalued by 50 to 150%, depending on the method of valuation and assessment of the prospects for even the next half-year. That is probably why there is a quick attempt to take over this company, wanting to outpace the increase in profits probably shown by ITV in next 6 monts. All because (If I am right) in a few months the starting position for a takeover will not be 70 pence per ITV share, but maybe £1.2, £1.5 or more. In addition, a potential buyer aware of changes in the market, improvement of ITV indicators or inevitable reduction of interest rates, he knows well that the valuation of ITV shares will finally start to be more realistic. Consolidation on the television media and media production market is inevitable. And this means that it will also include ITV. And it should be happend maximum in the next 2 years, although there is a good chance that it will happen much earlier. The earlier the higher the premium for the buyer, although I repeat here, I do not think we will go below £2 per share together with a possible equivalent in shares of the acquiring company. It is also possible to make an external acquisition from outside the industry in order to quickly build additional value for the company with a premium for the buyer when he decides to sell his purchase in a year or two.

Be an investor not a chips eater..

ITV shares situation at this point

I think that we have a large amounting (to about 1/3 of the visible shorts amount and not secured by held shares) shorts position and probably same at least 1-1.5% not visible from our small speculators like Tomaley. Now the question is how the market will behave, although I think there will be more demand than supply. If so, we will go with the ITV share price above 75 pence to 75-85. The rest is guesswork, but I bet 70:30 that the current speculations regarding the takeover of ITV are serious, so this should cause an inflow of additional stable cash. Such a move should result in a return of visible shorts to the level of approximately 2'5%.

As for the buyback and its temporary suspension, December is coming soon, so the cash from the company will probably flow out and we will return to aggressive share purchases. Today, for me, transfers from ITV to dyvi went and those going to the buyback were simply limited a little. And long-term investors in ITV shares should remain calm and patient. And in my opinion, accumulate shares as long as you have free financial resources.

Patience is the basis of success.

Greetings to the real investors in ITV shares. I suggest that trolls and ignoramuses immediately book a good psychiatrist and rather not count the money that real long term ITV shareholders earn.

As a reminder.

I do not argue with the Russian troll and all of his sub-account or with people - accounts that are typical troll accounts that heat up discussions and usually disgust everyone around them or the ITV management with bad investment decisions.

I do not argue with trolls or people who do not actually invest money in ITV shares, try to manipulate the market or emotions or clearly play shorts when it comes to ITV shares.

I do not argue with idiots. And no offense, but a person who decides to invest their money in company shares and has no idea about the basic principles of economics, what the market is guided by and also in the end blames all their failures on others, is simply an idiot to me. Or at least not enter into the discussion with your idiotic theories without understanding the overall market situation or the changes and restructuring at ITV. I invite them to a casino and not to invest in shares, because there they will have a better chance of winning.

We are on the same side of the market. Playing together, we are strong. Otherwise, sooner or later, the weaker of us will lose all our capital.

Having a specific education and over 30 years of experience in investing on the stock exchange, I only try to present my point of view, share my vision and concerns. This doesn't mean I'm infallible, but that I have a pretty good perspective when assessing the stock market as a whole.. Everyone makes their own decisions. I am happy to listen to the comments and dissenting opinions of people who explain their opinions factually, present logical arguments, often share their knowledge - and at the same time have invested their private financial resources in ITV shares and bear the financial risk of the decisions they make.

I block all the accounts of morons and trolls as a matter of principle and usually warn on this forum against using the advice of these people. As for my predictions of the ITV share price, I suggest tracing their history at least from 2024. I recommend carefully reading the explanations of such and not other forecasts. Moreover, as I always say, these are only forecasts based on specific assumptions often independent of ITV. However, from my own history I know that most of them come true and certain shifts in the time frame do not change the final result.

After the last purchases after the dividend payment ( only ISA +3300 at 68.74 with fees, on standard account bought before), I have a total of 423300 ITV shares, the average price is 64.3785 pence. I am informing about most changes and forming them on an ongoing basis. And this is what will happen when I leave this ship.  However, as I wrote, my minimum investment horizon has been set at 5 years, i.e. until around February 2027, and the target price is in the range of £2-£3. Which means I still have some time.

2

And here I think that my intelligent interlocutors underestimate the potential group of people willing to take over the company that ITV has become in recent years. I think that on the market we still have underestimated potential investors from the US or the United Arab Emirates looking for either typical financial investments or wanting to enter in this way the rich media and production market in the UK and Europe, due to a similar business profile or European legal regulations for their own business. Markets, large growing revenues and potential increase in the value of all components of the company. And this is what guarantees them the takeover of ITV.

So although all the noise is earlier than I assumed in my assessments and valuation of ITV shares, the whole thing promises to be interesting and very nice for the state of my account.

How was it supposed to be in my predictions??

£1.2-1.5 at the end of 2024

£2-£3 at the end of 2026

As you can see, it seemed stupid for some people before, but it may be more realistic than all other assessments, especially when we are thinking about predictions those of our trolls about 50 pence and less per ITV share and the collapse of the company in the next few years.  Well, you just have to be born a fool......

And finally. You have to be aware that most investors will find out if this is another false alarm or if a real serious game of external investors for ITV has begun when the price of its shares moves more. Then whether you will have this share in your portfolio or you will have to make a decision and assume again that this is not just a speculative move will probably be divided by a limit of several dozen percent of the difference in valuation. And this regardless of whether we are talking about a move to the level of £1.5 or £3. What position we will be in then depends only on us.

1

How nice it is to be back from holiday!!

What was I writing last week... something about that the year not being over yet and (by implication) that it is not yet time to talk about its summary regarding ITV.

It also seemed to me that we had already thanked the local trolls led by Tomaley, who has recently been multiplying faster and faster more accounts, and the local idiots, at least when it comes to any sensible and logical discussion.

As for the current commotion, I am not very pleased that it broke out before the dividend was paid out. After all, I had to pay much more for the new shares than I had expected a few days earlier.

I was certain, I predicted and wrote earlier that we would return to the issue of the takeover, although I thought it would enter the topic at the turn of 2025/2026 and that it would be much more realistic then. All this results from the current and forecasted valuation of ITV shares, which does not take into account the real potential of the company as of today.  The clearing of the financial results from the impact of last year's strike together with the fall in inflation, should in itself raise the stock market valuation to at least £1.20-1.50. As I said earlier. I don't think it is likely that the current largest financial investors in ITV would be willing, taking into account last 5 years inflation and a fair return on investment and the usual 20-30% premium in such of takeover - to sell their shares below £2-£3. Of course, due to the liquidity of the shares, a hostile takeover can be attempted, but it will cause a sharp increase in the price with a relative fall in volume. The buyback also had a significant impact on this situation. So to sum up - without their consent, NO ONE will simply takeover any part of ITV. Which I also think the current board will not allow. Therefore, writing that someone will made it for £1 is stupidity, or chasing idiots to sell their shares cheaply.  Because if any talks start, a potential buyer must think about spending £2-£3 on ITV shares in the form of cash or with a partial equivalent in their own shares. And I think these are the realities of a potential transaction. And regardless of what some people think, that the valuing ITV shares at this level would seem absurd. Therefore, I still believe that decisive talks can only begin when the aforementioned effect of interest rates or strikes is offset

and finds its effect in an increase in financial profits and consequently also the price of shares to the level of £1.2-£1.50. And this would potentially mean the second half of 2025 at the earliest.

Now today's realities!!??.?

The fact that such information is already appearing indicates that either we are artificially heating up emotions for a speculative rebound in the share price, or - more likely, the potential buyer wants to get ahead of the competition who may be waiting for a visible improvement in financial results.  And here I think that my intelligent inte

I'll take a break from my holiday for a moment. I see our little troll Tomaley is still creating new accounts... Well, what's left for him. ITV may not look the best, but the companies recommended by our homegrown experts are still in a downward trend, and THG has lost about 16% since a buy recommendation at 47.5 pence. That's not much less than ITV at the time. I prefer my ITV... After all, the year is not over yet, the fun continues, and maybe it will be. only worse?

All the best for the real ITV shareholders.

One thing is certain. Someone with a large portfolio has been selling ITV shares for some time now, or is building a large short position on borrowed shares. Or maybe is selling borrowed shares and at the same time building a long position in shares? On this scale second one is rather doubtful, although fear is probably driving the sale of shares sellout. But again... the almost 100 million ITV shares bought back in a month and a half through buyback did not come out of thin air. The disclosed short positions generated only half of this supply during that time. Does anyone know something that investors don't? We will see what time will bring.

Almost 81 million shares purchased by buyback in November up to today. As I said, at this rate we have a chance to complete this process this year or at most by mid-January 2025.

The downside for the market is the loss of the share price stabilizer, but it must also be remembered that awareness of its existence may inhibit investment demand blocked by its daily orders - limiting liquidity by up to 80% during daily market quotations until 4.30 pm. On the other hand, it confirms ITV's financial credibility (whereas the local trolls also tried to convince us that the company would withdraw from this program in part or not redeem the purchased shares). In addition, deletion of over 8% of shares from the register means, on the one hand, a decrease in the P/E ratio, an increase in individual earnings per share and at the same time a significant reduction in the free float of ITV shares in circulation (even when we take into account that about 0.5% of the 8% decrease came from long-term frozen shares of large shareholders). This should certainly be conducive to future share prices. And we will probably observe this positive impact when ITV finally gains better press and interest from shareholders. Personally, I believe that this is not the final word from the CEO regarding the ITV share buyback, which, combined with the regular dividend payments, is rebuilding shareholder confidence and ultimately, it will create pressure for a sharp increase in the share price combined with a cut in short positions that do not protect exposure to ITV shares.

Patience

Alk the best for the real ITV shareholders.

Divi payment in two weeks time.

Ups... sorry, correction

8-8.3%

At this rate, the buyback (with the remaining £80 million in the pocket) so will end at the latest in January-February 2025, with around 310-330 million shares bought back. I assume that the current daily buyback rate of 3.5-5 million shares (with an average of over 3 million shares) will continue to peak in the last week of November, and then drop to 1.8-2.5 million shares per day. Taking of minimum 250 million hot shares off the market (because I treat the rest as those sold by current shareholders trying not to increase their percentage share in ITV's share capital) should definitely cool the enthusiasm for playing short, increasing the risk of such an investment.

And then it is time to wait for the next move of the board regarding dividend and buyback. Let me remind you that these bought back and cancelled shares are a pure profit for the company in the form of savings of at least £15 million on dividends in the following year.in the form of savings of at least £15 million on dividends in the following year.

I also advise you to pay attention to the buyback in recent days, its scale and total size. Cho. Here, trolls will probably immediately respond, shouting about its quick end and the negative impact of this end on the share price. Except that we are preparing a write-off of 8 to 9.3% of the company's shares, which has a very large significance both for financial indicators and for the plentifulness of shares on the market. In addition, has the board really said the last word here?

Patience

Winstanley exactly as you said.

For those unfamiliar with the situation of recent years, under the current CEO the company has paid a cumulative £0.23 in dividends per share since 2019. A lot or a little? It's a matter of how you look at the financial situation of the company it took under management, the huge pension fund deficit, rapidly falling future income forecasts and above all the outdated structure of the company which was rapidly losing profitability. Overall it was a company fighting for survival, not a company at the top of its game. It is also worth remembering the period the CEO has been in under her rule, i.e. Brexit, covid-19 and Russia's aggression against Ukraine. But our trolls don't want to remember that. Fortunately, however, large institutional investors see this, and as a reminder, the CEO has been receiving almost 100% percent of votes in support of his actions at the General Meeting of Shareholders for years. So who is shouting the loudest here? Well, insignificant trolls with no capital and mostly not owning ITV shares, and speculators often betting on the decline of shares on shorts. I advise you to carefully monitor the financial situation at ITV. And read the reports carefully. Because the announced earnings per share look interesting and are growing year on year. And the next quarters, due to the comparative base, while maintaining current trends, will systematically indicate an improvement in all financial indicators....

Of course, if the market does not experience Armageddon in the form of further decisions by the Labour Party or Trump.

....

about time where my losses on the ITV shares I owned were higher in percentage terms in relation to the invested capital like today. Because today I am just 6% from my average price..... And what of it? In the initial phase I adopted the perspective of this investment as long-term for +/- 5 years, based on reinvestment of dividends flowing from ITV and investment of subsequent own funds. And nothing be changed up to the time when I will not change my perspective. There will be no profits or always more painful losses, which my investment strategy practically excludes up to the time when I will sell my shares. The fact that most people here consider speculation as something normal is due to the amount of investment capital they have, believing that having nothing or almost nothing, they will become millionaires overnight thanks to their genius. I have a different opinion on this, but let's let others count on being right.

Just as a reminder. Any investment gains or losses will only really occur when the position on shares is closed and the investment is transferred to cash. So until we sell the shares we have, all speculations here are purely theoretical and although they are based on the share price from the last close, they are still theoretical. Because the price on the next session can become non-transactional, fall sharply or rise theoretically for no reason. So someone's profit of £180 pounds, similarly to my losses (relative to the maximum close it's about £80k) exist only on paper in relation to the comparison of valuations from some period. It comes true in one direction or another if we close our position. Any "paper" gains will always look positive, similarly to losses which are by no means a reason for satisfaction. However, assuming volatility on the market, the long investment and that the company will not fail at the time we invest in it, the way of looking at it depends at this point on our investment horizon and personal approach to realizing losses or profits. ITV as such, thanks to its structure and large dispersion of shareholders, is a company on the market with a large amplitude of share price fluctuations. This gives the possibility of artificially inducing a speculative "sheep rush" but also wide investment opportunities for large institutional investors playing for a long-term increase in the value of the company. It is we who decide what form of investment we accept. In the long term, this should be remembered taking into account in the valuation primarily the prospects of potential profits generated by the company and also the impact of speculation based on real controlled emotion and controlled orders stimulating the sale or purchase of shares. When a company has an official large and stable shareholding with packages above 10-15% and covering over 65% of the total volume, such a situation as recently practically does not occur, and the movements of the share price are based mostly on signals coming from the company assessed realistically and not speculatively and are limited by large shareholders. ITV is currently used for short-term speculation, which in my opinion is realistically ignored in the long term by the largest shareholders, probably also conducting their own long-term policy here. In the last few years, playing short on ITV shares has mostly brought large profits (although there have also been significant losses). And this will probably be the case until the company starts to bring regularly increasing profits, the entire external market does not improve and speculative capital does not get a painful slap, suffering large losses. And I have no doubt about it, because statistically over 90% of such investments end up like this. For my part when we are talking about last two months losses I could always extend my investment horizon by a dozen or so months back and start taking about time where.....

At at the end today's story...

In any case, seeing the number of blocked posts, the rats have surfaced again today, although their numbers have definitely increased, both long-absent and newly created accounts. There is something to it... I will wait for analysts' comments, because the results were good, previously announced, and the future, contrary to appearances, does not look too bad. I hope that most of the earlier speculative purchases have left this deck, letting the shorts earn, and the shares have gone into stronger hands.

I have neither a good nor a very bad opinion of the Labour Party. They were given a chance by fate to return to power. They started badly and although the legacy of the Conservatives is what it is, they themselves had a hand in it by supporting the printing of money during covid-19 and blocking necessary restrictions in immigration policy. Tax increases are not the source of success. We need to cut spending, primarily on slackers who live on benefits and on a generous care system for people who come here illegally. And this would find much greater support in society than the 20% who voted for these governments. If they don't understand this, they will possible get kick off out in snap elections up to second half 2026.

Trump is not a best option but is a chance for the UK and Europe because the UK government will get a kick in the ass, and get a chance burying most of the stupid leftist ideas promoting laziness and living at the expense of others paying taxes (under his appearance)'. The scales will tip sharply to the right and it will take some time to finally achieve balance. And no attempts to gag society and its emotions with restrictive anti-democratic criminal law will stop this in the UK. Time has also shown that this is a double-edged sword.

And ITV is slowly doing its job. That it is painful for shareholders, yes - but if the company meets my hopes and requirements, I do not liquidate my investment portfolio hoping that maybe I will be able to buy back its shares cheaper. I started 2024 in losses. We'll see how ends. And as for forecasts... well, they are always forecasts verified by the capital market. And so in the case of profits and same in the case of losses, I make decisions, and I do not look for guilty people around. This is called being an adult.

On this discussion group, being an idiot and a troll is still very popular. For some, the election of the Labour Party and its next year's budget, Trump as the US president with the much more dangerous Musk in the background (desiring power without responsibility, an even bigger idiot and populist in the background of this presidency), or the still weak and with many question marks - the UK economy, all this is irrelevant to ITV. Just like all the work done in this company in recent years by the CEO. Because hatred towards her is for many an excuse for their own failures. Much easier than seeking help from a psychiatrist. I hope that most of the people here are still waiting with their purchases ITV shares for better times. Besides, it is not important anyway with the financial resources that the experts here have at their disposal...

Explaining the principles of economics or "the sheep rush" when selling/buying shares to such a person is pointless.

420k ITV shares, average price is £0.6789

Evs88

No money tree :(

Just used a reserve for unforeseen expenses. Debt on the card I will pay dividends at the end of the month.

Small correction.

..

I got 420k ITV shares. My average price is 67.089 pence, that means I am possible back today in red this year profits ...

Profits or losses should be calculated after closing the position. So, as usual, we will wait for more than one day...... (also for market opinions)

I feel pain.

Results nearly like expected after the budget scare ... As for me not so bad like we see at shares price... Everyone thinks for themselves, .. (except trolls). I bought 10k at 65.74 with tax and fees

My average price is 67.089 pence, that means I am back today possible in red this year...

Profits or losses should be calculated after closing the position. So, as usual, we will wait for me...... (also for market opinions)