Member Info for Pogo001

This year is still not over. Although my target of £1.20-1.50 by the end of 2024 is still out of reach, it looks like I may once again be within a few months of the error. That "error" could still mean around £250 k or over in my pocket. To remember I have 423300 ITV shares with an average price (including dividends) of 67.3485 pence per share. Not bad as I started this year with about 210600 ITV shares and an average price of 72.649573 pence per share.

As I said lots of times before. I don't think so, that any deal under £1.50 + shares or £2 for cash is possible. Always patience, but now I started to look around for new good investment after ITV. But... not before will more than double my money there.

All the best for the real ITV shareholders.

Fu__ch the trolls.

And I wish again for shorts holders ..... a stress-free bowel movement and proximity to a toilet (to the end of this year and for any next day next year as they still got any money in yours pocket invested against ITV stock holders). Stupidity costs money, but nothing teaches you better than an empty pocket.

£0.7625, nice.

The whole situation shows what will happen to the ITV share price and short positions if there is a demand for a few million shares. The morons here are pretending or not realizing how shallow and oversold the ITV share market is and how much it relies on supply generated by large investors holding and trying to keep a fixed percentage of ITV share capital. There is a modest supply of ITV shares generated by small-timers playing short and daytraders too. At the current rate the buyback will end in about 10-15 trading days. Let's add another two days for investment portfolios to balance out. And then it's time to wish the short holders a stress-free bowel movement and proximity to a toilet. And one more digression. You really have to be a complete idiot to suggest that the company will not redeem the purchased shares... Idiots and stupid trolls,.., that's how this world and this discussion forum is. By the way this move over 76 pence it had to hurt today, especially since not everyone uses stop-loss and this means that the systems themselves automatically closed today many shorts on impressive, several dozen percent losses of equity.

Hey boys, have you got today a full of the sh... on yours stinking panties?

As for me, BOA made a bad decision. The situation that is creating on the markets will force him, in my opinion, to make sudden, unannounced and interventionist changes to the interest rate. For me, this is stupidity, because they should anticipate the facts and mitigate all possible sudden changes on the market. They have already screwed up by delaying the start of the interest rate hike cycle. Today they are risking a recession.

Fingal

I do not want to discuss the principles of BOA's actions here. However, it does not operate outside the markets. Current interest rates are too high for the current and forecasted inflation rate. In addition, it is stifling economic growth and, due to the upcoming threats, may cause recessionary trends. Maintaining too high interest rates in relation to competitors, i.e. the US and the EU, threatens to strengthen the value of the British pound too much, which already creates problems for exporters and the entire British labor market. With the forecasted increase in inflation on an annual basis, unless some extraordinary situation occurs, I think we have room for interest rate cuts (from today's level) of 0.25 to 1%. The forecasted deterioration of the economic situation may increase the aggressiveness of the cuts to 1.5%. It is better to agree to inflation slightly above the target than to a collapse of economic growth and recession. This is what pure economics says.

ITV has the right structure for Amazon. Thanks to ITVX, it also has a good base for the development of a free, ad-supported streaming service. And the customer base would be expanded by Amazon's takeover, creating a solid source of revenue once and for all. The role of STUDIO does not need to be praised. A small financial injection will guarantee the buyer both solid revenue from external production and a reduction in its own costs. It will also allow it to compete with Disney or Netflix. Traditional terrestrial television is a complement to the entire vision of this business. It will also bring profits and attract viewers if it only receives more new content, and does not constantly replay old programs or films. In addition, it will be the window into the world of the older part of society for many years to come. This is something that the market seems to have forgotten, about the ageing society of the whole of Europe, where the importance of terrestrial television transmission is growing with the increasing age of the recipients. From Apple's point of view, ITV does not meet expectations. Too small to seriously start an adventure in this market. Yes - but as an addition to a bigger cash takeover.

Returning to the possible takeover. I believe that all speculations aimed at reducing the price of ITV will be very quickly put to rest by the CEO. The announcement of the division of the company will very quickly increase its valuation to over £4 billion. And her age - 63 years and possible retirement are another argument for the takeover to take place on very good terms. Because the current CEO is a person who does not leave the field defeated. She is the one who dictates the terms. And as such she will end her career.ITV is her next success and will be remembered as such even when it falls into other, stronger hands.

NigeCo

From my own knowledge and assessment of the market due to the structure of ITV, I believe that Amazon, not Apple, will be willing to pay more for ITV. And it is Amazon that will be most determined to conclude this transaction. Other competitors will remain in the market, unable to guarantee either a share price above £2 satisfactory to the largest shareholders, or the integrity of the ITV structure as a whole and at the same time fulfillment of the concession obligations as a public broadcaster. ITV has everything that Amazon needs to expand its expansion into almost the richest European media market and then all of Europe. But of course this is only my humble opinion. As well as my opinion that we have at least a few potential buyers on the horizon, and the CEO will have a lot to choose from in the future. It is also always possible to spin off the value of streaming and Studio into separate companies, increasing and making the valuation of ITV as a holding more realistic (although here I bet on the spin-off of Studio + ITVX remaining in one capital form together with terrestrial television).

Returning to the buyback for a moment. I will emphasize once again that I believe that its termination will significantly limit the current supply of shares. At the same time, the risk of betting on shorts will increase. Well-informed investors or just well-counting shares (which supply of ITV shares should appear from large investors reducing their positions) will lose the strong expected supply impulse, because the real supply hanging over the market today and not generated by shorts is currently no more than 2 million shares. Such a low supply means that short positions not securing real ITV shares already purchased, can very quickly lose ground and to be forced to close. Well, as usual, time will tell. The nearest period is certain upcoming large fluctuations on the entire market. This is also an opportunity for still, I think, very cheap purchases of ITV shares. As I think any price under £1.2-1.5 should stay a good investment.

One more

Tomorrow we have a BOA rate decision.

0.25% down and in my opinion similar or 0'5% in January. This means that dividend companies like ITV (at their current valuation levels and up to around £1) are becoming more and more attractive to investors.

... But, as the trolls will probably say, this is just another piece of information irrelevant to the valuation of ITV.

Buyback

The buyback will end soon. Our trolls, like the some part of the market, assume that this will cause a drop in the price of ITV shares. I suggest that we follow the history of a similar process for other companies. And what are the facts? 80% of shares of companies with dispersed share capital, without dominant investors, after the end of the buyback noted an increase in share prices. In the case of ITV, the information about the potential takeover will be accompanied by the one about the cancellation of 8% of capital and an increase in the theoretical value of shares remaining in circulation. In addition, the supply generated by several large investors (it was visible yesterday) striving to maintain a constant level of involvement in the share capital will cease. This will additionally limit the supply of ITV shares. And now the question about a possible takeover? Will large investors simply will write off the losses money for the shares they had to sell in the buyback process for 1/3 of the purchase price, or will they add this value to a potential takeover offer they would be willing to accept? Let everyone answer for themselves.

NigeCo

Thanks.

That's why I use FILTERS and don't read stupid posts. After al they are intended for people like the trolls who write them, people who call themselves investors abd think that the Stock Market is a roulette that will make them millionaires. On the other hand, you have to be a real idiot to think that this cr__ap, dripping from comments written by trolls and their assessment of the market or ITV, has any influence on investment decisions. Those who have invested in ITV shares years ago have had a developed opinion both, about this investment and the trolls. And to be honest, I think that there are simply on this forum no new investors with more cash in their pockets, apart from the one week bargain hunters. And it will be like this until the press catches the ITV story in the sail and the ITV share price breaks the £1 ceiling. Then, however, today's troll statements will only confirm the stupidity of those who write them.

As for increasing the dividend amount next year - I don't think so. Because of taxesand chance for takeover I think that more likely is a buyback at £100-150 million level.

Our Russian troll Tomalley keeps opening new accounts. A local idiot with an oversized ego that is underestimated by the public.

The buyback will take about 8% of ITV shares off the market, which, when taking into account those sold by large investors who do not want to increase their percentage stake in the company, means that at least 280 million shares have disappeared from the market. And such a significant restriction of free float significantly affects the share price and, above all, speculative capital playing on these shares. It will be more expensive and the risk of failure for short-sellers will increase. In addition, thanks to this operation, the value of profit attributable to ITV shares will increase by about 8%, and all other financial indicators will improve. And something that is not visible - the buyback together with the regularly paid dividend is a clear incentive to invest in ITV shares. Our trolls don't talk about this, although it's easy to read by looking up the definition of buyback and its impact on the shares of each company.

PATIENCE. We've waited long enough, let's wait a few more weeks. Let's not let ourselves be fooled by stupid trolls.

Information about plans to cooperate with YouTube was published a few months ago. Also by me. Why am I not surprised that it is causing a sensation on this forum again...

It's always interesting to read the comments of people who are either prejudiced against ITV based on their previous investment decisions, or never invested any penny in its shares... they just like to throw in their intelligent advice here and there.

£4.5 billion looks much better than £2.7 billion and means around £1.22-1.25 per ITV share. Still a bit low for a public company with this valuation, burgeoning profits and position in the FTSE100 index (if we see this valuation on the market). Where is the minimum 20-30% bonus for shareholders?

That the last few quarters didn't look so good? Yes, but the US market and production orders are just getting back to normal, the UK advertising market is stabilizing and regardless of everything from the current level it can only grow. And the previous weaker quarters will soon be a good springboard to show huge growth in all segments of ITV's business. This is the basic argument for presenting quick and good offers for ITV today, because the upcoming improvement in financial indicators will force potential bidders to raise the bar. And as I said, contrary to appearances, there may be a few willing unnamed and shadowy candidates to takeover, willing with a large and deep wallet and a vision of ITV development that brings their businesses great benefits. Let's wait for specifics. The fact that the stock market has underestimated the growth potential of this segment of the advertising and television production market in Europe and the UK for years is true. But don't worry, those who have to see it, have been using it carefully and in the right way for years by buying undervalued shares. Because money is made quietly. In a headlights we are only looking for deer to cash in on our investments.

At least for me the buyback in the last week has been a bit too slow. There is still £55.4 million left in the cash register, and let's hope that this money quickly reaches the market. After all (allegedly ??) we have a very attractive price, and in the background a potential takeover of the company. So it's probably worth taking advantage of the opportunity?

I like this company when it comes to short-term speculation. The high liquidity of the shares and also the volatility allows you to connect to the next increases. I generally do not play on shorts. However, when it comes to a long-term view, I think that the price level of £30 is relatively unattainable until the second half of next year. What then? It's like reading fortunes from coffee grounds, especially since Trump's presidency, the green deal or an increase in inflation for a company with such a baggage of liabilities do not bode well. And what about full planes? Nothing,especially because in reality in 24 months one third of connections were eliminated, as a engines problem's, war at Ukraine and Putin's aggression, as that a company not taught by experience still does not secure itself potential increases in oil prices, believing once again in a miracle, etc. Costs are rising, debt is growing, and the unit profit per passenger will therefore continue to fall. So for me shares are good for fun not long term investment. In terms of forecasts, I think that by February 2025 we will break the last annual low at £11.38 and there will be a chance to test £10.00 as a psychological barrier of declines.

There is still about £54 million left to spend after November 2024. As I said I think there will be enough until the end of December for another 55-75 million shares. So far so good after the correction of the last 3 days of gains. What next? It will certainly be interesting and the year is not over yet. Greetings to all the real ITV share holders.

Link

Https://archive.ph/188HT

Solley1

I am tempted to say that those who think differently like me and you (without emotion evaluate the period under the current CEO), are people who have never invested private money in ITV shares, small investors repeating stupid opinions spread by our trolls, people interested in the decline of ITV's price for professional reasons or simply playing short., or what is often visible in discussions - a group of people who have no substantive preparation and knowledge and who build their opinion about ITV based on the series of their own investment failures. Many people still treat the stock market like a casino, dreaming about big money,.. without money, knowledge and experience to build ovn future.

Therefore, it may be worth reading the assessment below and drawing specific conclusions when it comes to the value of ITV shares. And as for myself although valuation of the presented takeover in this article on the level about of £1.3 seems to me to be definitely too low, the general wording of this article is significant. ITV share's price - it is cheap, definitely too cheap, and sooner or later it simply has to be more expensive, because the outlined development and restructuring, despite the unfavourable market environment, are proceeding according to plan. In addition, potential buyers should hurry up before a significant improvement in Studio revenues and the advertising market stimulated by the fall in interest rates do not cause the ITV share price to return to the real market valuation of around £1.2-£1.5. Because then the takeover offer will have to be closer to £2-3 that the valuation presedent above.

NigeCo

Maybe you are right, but in my opinion after next 6 months we should to get much better looks financial situation at ITV, and as I wrote before - the big shareholders and CEO will not get rid of it for next to nothing, below their purchase prices taking into account long-term inflation and bonuses for the seller of shares in the company which is currently showing the financial effects of several years of restructuring. And that this is the case is visible from the attempts of potential buyers several years ago, when they were left out by offering, according to unofficial and sometimes appearing information, about £5.5 billion. But that is only a price about I heard and maybe it's a fake (but as for myself very likely).

Just because the stock market seems to have forgotten about ITV and the entire sector, doesn't mean it doesn't generate stable income and at a time when most other investments have been overvalued, it's not being considered by the big players. Again: when the time comes, many commentators will be surprised by the potential group interested in taking over ITV, the cash involved, the potential valuations of the individual assets, and probably who will ultimately takeover ITV and how much need to pay.

NigeCo

You completely right with your valuation.

But remember, that

+ If we are over £1.20 - ITV is moving to FTSE100 index. That is a minimum +10% extra in valuation

+ As a standard any takeover should make for an existing shareholders premium +20 to 30%

That as I said we have many arguments in favor of a minimum share price of £2 in such a case. I would also like to remind you that such a valuation (and above) was already discussed many years ago when the market and financial situation and ITV's prospects were much worse than they are now. At the same time, the Studio had a fraction of today's valuation. Somehow many also forget about it and omit all this facts in their assessments.