Member Info for Pogo001

However, leaving aside all speculations regarding the takeover of ITV, it is worth emphasizing that separating Studio from the ITV structure is a very good solution. It opens the way to the unhiding of the real value of ITV shares on the stock exchange, while making a hostile takeover more difficult. For 3Media, regardless of who the potential acquirer would be in the future, it is also a bridge to the consolidation of its own business with the largest and strongest player on the market. This gives a real possibility of participating in negotiations and, above all, selling its entire business at a good price. That the situation may look different for them than they expected, different from the dream? Yes, but in business, economic effects count, and these on the scale of the overall investment will certainly be positive, above the market average. And for us small and medium-sized shareholders, the whole process means only advantages. That someone lost ... probably. However, reinvesting dividends definitely limited these losses. This confirms the principle that if you do not believe in investing, you should either ignore it completely or continue it to a reasonable extent.

Rumors

Not being a supporter of conspiracy theories, and at the same time not wanting to rely on unverified gossip, I will however touch upon one of them. Since the beginning of January, I have come across several "information - gossip - speculation" about an American investor interested in taking over ITV and an initial offer of around £0.95 per share. If there was a grain of truth in this, it should be treated as a definitive warning to the company against an attempted hostile takeover, as a probably unacceptable offer for most of its investors - and consequently a situation requiring a quick defensive reaction from ITV. And here, at this point, one can understand Dame's greater favor for spinning off part of ITV's assets, while maintaining their control, and significantly increasing the company's stock exchange valuation and at the same time making its takeover and then division by its largest shareholders more difficult. 3Media has been supporting the board's actions for years, but in my opinion it had a different view of the future of ITV, striving to take over part of it. They didn't make the board work harder, but waited for a possible mistakes.The low ITV share price reflected on the stock exchange was irrelevant to them from the point of view of their own valuation. In my opinion, they treated the drop in the price of ITV shares as pressure on the board, so that if Dame failed, it would make it easier for them to take over cheaply. Again in my opinion, the whole game, as I have already written, is collapsing. Why? Because ITV has rebuilt and really strengthened its position, "fat" years of profits are coming, global consolidation of media and advertising giants on world markets is preparing - bringing an increase in interest and valuations, and above all, potential buyers with high value of money in pockets are appearing on the market. Will Dame turn away from 3Media? Is that possible? The process of transformation and reconstruction of ITV is practically over. At the moment we should finally see its effects. Dame is a successful woman. She will not resign from management until she confirms it again. Especially since ITV is practically the end of her career due to her age. Such a victory would probably be the takeover of ITV on her terms, at a price at least in the range of the one when she was started your work for the company on the verge of collapse. The sale of ITV at a capitalization level of about £8 billion, as a strong and healthy business would certainly be the desired ending of her career for her (and us shareholders). In the context of takeovers and changes in media owners, I suggest observing the Polish market with TVN television. The valuation of the largest private television in a market of 38 million people may be interesting here, when there are probably 3 competitors in the fight. Returning to the issue of rumors about the January offer. Has anyone else come across this rumors?

I am not surprised about today's share price moving. This whole week should be very interesting.

Nice to see that my last two buying 4k and 7k are profitable, but as a long term investment "I am still in the game" and we never know. Which does not change the fact that the chances of a permanent breakout to the level of 84-95 pence are definitely increasing. Buyback still has an amount of about £11.012 million, so this problem will disappear soon.

Monty888

You completely right, but remember that on this forum we have a lot of pseudo ITV investors,whose goal is not to increase the value of ITV but to earn on changes in attitudes towards these shares. I will also ignore the group of typical trolls who only pollute the air. From the point of view of an institutional investor, after the current buyback phase, the value of ITV reflected in the shares held by him will increase by about 8%.

Added another 7k ITV shares with average price 72.78 + fees. In my opinion good price.

(434300 average 67.4688)

I hope that after today's turbulence we will see a bright sky.

Janus1

I am not use AI.I don't need.

Maybe you need..

Janus1

On this forum, there is a group of accounts that have been insulting the current management for years, negating any policy pursued by the company, facts and not theories flowing from ITV and the market environment. Political contexts completely detached from the group's topic often appear here. Similarly, threads littering in the same style, often also promoting investing in shares of other companies as a solution for local shareholders. Those who took advantage of the advice know exactly what the consequences are. Trolling also includes stupid posts aimed at manipulating the feelings of long-term investors, of whom let's not hide the fact that a significant number may be suffering losses to this day. Basing emotions on false information, promoted hatred of Dame, and above all lack of knowledge people posting here and the lack of knowledge of people visiting this group serves (which is often visible) to fuel negative emotions and sell shares. Some accounts also troll here for their own economic purpose and profit, betting on positions opposite to those promoted by them. They do not inform about it, but after when where caught, they try not to remind themselves of it. Another group of trolls - morons are those who often use several nicknames, building general tension in the group and reluctance to invest in ITV. It is difficult to say whether they have ever invested in ITV shares and suffered losses, or are simply frustrated idiots looking for an outlet for their emotions and fantasies. I remind you that this discussion group should serve the exchange of information or own observations regarding ITV shares by people investing in this company. Such a discussion makes sense when these people also clearly define their position on ITV shares, and also explain their forecasts and base them on their own knowledge and experience. Using any publications, they do not try to change their meaning too. When publishing my opinions and predictions, I also try to show my way of thinking and the facts that build this particular opinion. And this is what I considering as a good habit, as well as a principle according to which I separate my emotions, my private attitude towards people and my investments in life.Otherwise, the statements can be considered trolling. Otherwise, Janus1, I would also put you on my "filters" list. However, I have nothing against discussion, even when I think that my opponents are wrong. In addition, in my opinions I always take into account that we operate in a specific economic and political sphere. And this means that not everything can be predicted. It is important to understand the market as such and the place ITV in which we invest our money. And so that in the long run we can enjoy victory and not defeat.

I feel a definite sense of amusement and satisfaction observing the number of filtered posts. I have a lot of fun reading both those questioning the truth of the ongoing merger talks or their meaning, and therefore their impact on the valuation of ITV shares, from the fall shares price under 60 pence, no impact or to grow"maybe" up to 90's (but what does that .... nothing). And of course opinion, that eventually this merger is downright bad and harmful to ITV because no one will buy ITV anymore. Interesting words coming from people who claim that ITV is generally worthless and no one is interested in taking it over. I can also count well, so I will leave it to the real demand on the market whether my calculations are correct when, firstly - the buyback ends, cutting off the additional supply of shares on the market, what created before the safety of the shorts game, and secondly - the market suddenly will be able to see the potential for an increase in the valuation of ITV's stock exchange in the face of information flowing into the market. However, I think that I will have reasons to laugh, and "FILTERS" less work. I recommend our trolls to find another object of complaint. where they will be able to pour out more cry and complaints after another financial failure.

Conclusion.

The growth of ITV shares requires a strong external impulse. I think everyone will agree with that. The issue of discussion is how one piece of information can affect the market and the overall perception of ITV. In my opinion, it will cause a kind of shock, and as a result the market will remember the stable dividend paid and next one soon, about buyback or real valuations in relation to the EU or the USA. This will allow for the space to mature for decisive increases in the share price. It must also be remembered that realistically today to the level of the price of £1.0-1.2 it will be difficult to "squeeze" more than 5-10% of shares from the market (I think it will be closer to 5%). This is the real supply of shares from small investors willing to get rid of the shares. This situation also has a decisive impact on a potential takeover. Returning to the issue of the regulator's consent. I advise you to watch the European market closely, which has been signaling the coming consolidation and the accompanying change in regulations for some time now. Does anyone really believe that the UK will do otherwise (I explained before why I think politics will be not able to stop changes)? Once again, let's just be patient. The changes are not driven by our prayers or dreams, but by very large amounts of money which will on the way. This money is slowly returning to the sector and as history shows, at some point there will be a lot of it here. At that point the price level of 70 pence for ITV shares will be just a memory and another missed opportunity.

ITV is like the entire market segment it represents, definitely overlooked and therefore undervalued. This undervaluation in relation to the European market is at least 50%, and when it comes to the USA, the average level of indicators can be 2 or 2.5 times higher. Even taking into account the size of the markets, these disproportions are too large. So a sector correction in ITV share prices is simply inevitable. It should bring an increase in the share price to at least £1 -1.2 and a P/E of at least 10. The media and advertising market is generally forgotten and overlooked in terms of investment by large funds throughout Europe. However, the situation is changing and improving. There are also visible changes on the market to improve the transparency of valuations of this business, an example of which is Vivendi. In the case of Vivendi, we already have a total valuation that has increased by several dozen percent in a short period of time. In addition, on the European market, through American corporations, changes in the owners of television media are being prepared in the near future. This will contribute to greater interest in this sector, but also, I think, to showing real valuations based not on sentiment but on the real transactions. Currently, the stock market momentum directing the flow of investments towards the AI ​​sector is also becoming more and more risky. Trump's policy and the changes in European policy should force to more pro-growth move in to the old economy sectors (but not only because of Trump). This is another reason for the shift in investment flow to this market sector. In the case of ITV (but not only), I will deliberately not elaborate again on the attractiveness of this company due to its relatively stable level of income that guarantees dividend payments, or the buyback that is always perceived by external investors as a long-term incentive to buy.So you just need to get rid of your investment prejudices, start counting and be patient, because the expected reward will be many times higher than the market average.

I am also not surprised by the participation of the largest investor in this whole mess. As I have already written, according to my observations, he has not reduced the number of ITV shares he holds since at least mid-October. Having additional time to go below 10% thanks to other buyback regulations, he can currently control an additional 50 million (or more) ITV shares, which he should theoretically sell. In the perspective of firstly - the difference in price, let's say by £0.50-£1.00, we can talk here about the desire for additional and impressive earnings. Moreover, these several dozen million ITV shares above the 10% limit are, contrary to appearances, a lot considering the shareholding structure, if only there is a potential fight between buyers who have to gain a majority of votes. A company with such a distribution of majority shareholders requires a different - much more spread out over time approach to its takeover. And the progressive accumulation could be noticed since December 2023. In addition, in my opinion, now is the last moment to play the ITV takeover in 3Media's own way. When big players with very big money enter the game - there will be nothing left for them but to accept the best price offer. Dreams of building something bigger around them will disappear forever - lost due to earlier indecision and constant counting that the management will turn upside down and the drop in the ITV share price will cause the rest of the market to accept every offer. Thinking: buy cheap like Dame won't work, and for now sharing shorts, collecting dividends and waiting has not worked. And it will cost a lot more, if it is not already too late.

These are a few of many observations that at least since September 2024 could suggest that something bigger is in the air. And I do not have to share all of them here. Trolling definitely makes perception of seeing more difficult. But being idiots is, judging by some nicknames, a matter of genes.

As I have been saying and writing for a long time. I am not interested in selling ITV shares until the company starts generating a decent level of profits and the market environment improves, starting a growth cycle of several years. This is associated with a specific valuation in the range of at least £2-£3. At the moment, I do not see any sensible investment on the market, burdened with such a low risk as ITV, which should potentially generate similar or greater profits. Several "gems" that should bring a profit of at least 50% currently have a longer investment horizon and greater risk. Investing in ITV as a long-term investment, where I counted on selling in 2026, continuous accumulation of shares as funds flow in and dividend reinvested in ITV shares - this is currently the best choice for me. This policy of reinvestment and accumulation has fully proven itself in 2024, bringing an increase in the number of shares held from 210k to 432k, and the average price from 72.6496 to 67.3485 - and finally bringing "paper" profits from the initial loss. So I will wait. My ambitious goal for the end of the year is 475k ITV shares in the portfolio.

After today's Friday 74.15

VOTING

(3) Pogo001 73.20 (minus 1.3%)

Pogo001 : minus 40 points

TOTAL

(3) Pogo001 : 0 points

(1) WimbledonTom : minus 160 points

(number of predictions posted)

As usual, a group of trolls here are trying to convince us that ITV is a bankrupt company, not arousing interest or worth taking over. As the share price increases or information from the company appears, the group of commentators who, in my opinion, have not been involved in the investment in ITV so far is also growing, who suddenly come to the conclusion that they have already missed something, but it is too expensive..., that's maybe... Our avid short players, as usual, are talking nonsense, .. And of course, as usual, they are making money by losing capital. This is just a matter of observation.

And as for the existing situation, a solution is starting to emerge, which I mentioned as one of several after Vivendi and the November speculations about the takeover. I think that separating Studio from ITV in the proposed form makes a lot of sense. Firstly, as I have already written, it will make the company's asset valuation more realistic (in my opinion to around £1.3-£1.5 after taking into account the redemption of 8% of shares through buyback). Secondly, it will protect ITV before a hostile takeover, while raising the price bar for potential investors. It will also create a bridge for the overall sale and takeover of ITV, giving the possibility of expanding the group of investors interested only in its individual components - and at the same time limiting the time of the whole process, taking into account the need for consent from the supervisory authority.Although, as I have written, I believe that the government will not protest here particularly. Budget pressure and potential political pressure exerted internally and from the Trump administration (I have my favorites for the ITV bundle) will be, I think, sufficient not to hinder the transaction. Once again, I believe that the valuation should realistically be based on a P/E of around 20, i.e. around £2, but if American investors enter the game, the takeover price (together with any exchangeable shares) may exceed the P/E level of 25. This gives a price of around £3, exactly what I wrote about in 2024, discussing my forecasts for 2026 (where I originally saw the time for the ITV takeover in line with the policy of the largest shareholders and when the company will finally generate appropriate and high income).

My forecast for Friday's close today seemed unlikely at 3 pm. Well, this time I hope my technical reading (after a night shift, forecast made between wake up and another sleep) will not come true. If this time we see a breakout, I will not be surprised by any price level. In such a case any forecast beyond observation simply does not make sense. We are waiting for 75-77, 82-84, 88-92, 98-1.10, 1.2 -......

As I see the amount of filtered news, I know that someone is getting hot. I hope that our trolls still have shorts positions. Although as usual it will probably turn out that they have been making money on ITV shares since 68.

Just as a reminder: a similar situation with Vivendi caused an over 20% increase in share valuation. I hope that today's increase is only the beginning.

As myself from today, I will treat my last week short-term investment of 4k ITV shares (profits including commission in both directions and tax, from the level of 69.90) as long-term. So the current state of my portfolio is 427300 ITV. Total investment £287886. Average price (included reinvested divi) 67.3733 pence per ITV share.

All the best for the real ITV shareholders.

Patience.

We have 3 pm. Today's vote is closed

My closing price is 7320

Hello Winstanley.

Nice to see you again.

Some people will always have a problem appreciating someone else's success. That's what happens when you're a nobody your whole life, a regular zero.

Best regards

.... Over 300 million shares less in the trade, means we have more chance to go up like down share price.

Synic

Remember that any buyback should be done at the price as much cheap to maximize the amount of shares bought. That what want small speculative investors isn't in the company's interest. After this buyback any long term ITV shares investors have an extra 8% company in your pockets. If company will decide spend same amount of money for dividend like last 2 years, we should get not 5 pence but 5.4 pence dividend per share. But doesn't matter. Over 300 million shares in the trade, means we have more chance to go up like down share price.