Member Info for Pogo001

Ups...of course Stong sell

Shorts...? I'm going to bet that every exit of the Wizzar share price above the level of 1120-1150 will cause a sharp increase in the number of short positions. We are in a strong downtrend and without specific information confirming permanent and positive changes nothing will change in this topic.

Iss it just an another accident at work today? I know that this time we quickly went below the price,.., but personally I don't believe in regular miracles and coincidences. In any case, unfortunately I won't do anything that's on my mind. A bigger injection of cash only in the second half of the month, and this time I can't afford to charge my credit card. All that remains is, as usual, to wait patiently and observe the situation. We'll see if my hunches have come true with this, giving a chance for at least a solid several percent, even speculative, but still profit.

I remind you. In order for the price of shares to grow, they must be bought dynamically. And this must be visible on the volume. Praying for growth of the owners of shares and not the disposers of capital usually ends with a standard fart and a return to the trend. And in the case of Wizzair, this trend is strongly downward. Living in a world of fairy tales is clearly affecting the majority on this forum.

As we can see, morning miracles don't happen without a reason...

Now it's time to wait for tomorrow's replay or maybe an explanation of today's opening. If of course there's anything to explain.

My forecast for Wizzair share price after the release of passenger numbers: under 1020 (70% chance), 1110 (20% chance) or weekly stabilization in the range of 1050-1090 (10% chance).

Sapi72

Looking at the current market valuation, forecasts and assessment of the situation, it seems that you are really living in a fantasy world created by the owners of Wizzair shares and the company's management. Let's add - the management which is really well paid, takes advantage of benefits generously paid by the company, spreading visions of its miraculous development for years, and blaming the reality and the shares price drop on unforeseeable technical problems or force majeure. Well, keep dreaming...

If we look at the trading volume generated in the 1050-1150 range and that from the period of the sharp price collapse from around 1700, we will come to certain conclusions. *First, the increase in the share price must be associated with the return to the WIZZAIR share market of capital in the range of £50-100 million (or at least a significant part of it) that has escaped from its shares over the last few months. This will not happen without a significant improvement in the revenue structure, a decrease in costs or a situation beyond the company's control, such as calming down the political situation or solving the problem of faulty engines. So we are talking here about a period of probably at least 12 months. *The second option is a drop in the share price, making its valuation more realistic to market forecasts. And here we are talking about a correction of at least 20-30%, assuming positive changes in the company. In my opinion, as time goes on, the market will increasingly value the increasing costs of servicing the purchase of new aircraft and their impact on the level of profit. This will cause discussions about a new share issue or a loan with an option to convert to shares at an appropriate discount to the market price. The coming period is a time of burning capital. So, in a negative market scenario, the price level of £8 (at which we should have a chance for a multi-month consolidation) may turn out to be too optimistic.

As for me. If someone is going to discuss, I suggest using factual arguments and not stupid rhetoric. So far, all I hear are pleas for a share price increase based on the fact that it's cheap (and it shouldn't be cheaper) or that it should be better (because it should be!!).I heard similar opinions from the same people at the 1300 level, and everyone who listened to them is seeing over 15% losses today.

In any case, everyone can live in a fairy tale world, but when they wake up in the real world, with an investment model based on fairy tales, it will be a painful financial wake-up for them.

I will repeat. Revenues from additional fees constitute up to 70% of the average price of a ticket flight. So saying that depriving airlines of revenues of more than half of this amount will not hurt and will not cause the necessity of increasing the average ticket's price by 20-40% is either stupidity or an attempt to manipulate other participants of this forum. In the first period (let's say for at least 3 months) the new regulations will probably cause a sharp drop in profit, and on the other hand, testing the consumer's resistance to price increases in a smaller range (combined with the practical abandonment of all promotions such as "flight for £9.99"). Then we will probably expect another price increase, limited, however, by a drop in demand and a simple calculation that when a customer chooses once another regular airline instead of a low-cost one, they may want not use the supposedly cheap ones again. Because it will turn out that similar prices and the comfort of travel together with the lack of problems with the carrier, are worth changing your travel style. When traveling on selected routes, I often use more expensive flights. And sometimes in the season it turns out that low-cost airlines have more expensive tickets than regular ones. It is also better not to discuss the differences in service and support.

Interesting first hour of trading, with a significant increase in price and volume. Does anyone know anything or is it just an accident at work and the execution of long-term buy orders on the new month's first day? We will probably find out today or tomorrow.

I suggest not talking nonsense that baggage fees and penalties charged do not affect revenues or profits. I suggest looking at the balance sheet and then translating it into ticket prices. There is no chance of transferring the drop in revenues to the price of tickets. The consumer will not accept this. And even more so the one who actually travels with one hand luggage. Such a situation will automatically affect the drop in the number of transports, and in addition, too large an increase in the prices of airline tickets will convince some customers to use normal, not low-cost connections. This is already happening on the most congested routes where the prices of tickets of low-cost airlines such as Wizzair, Ryanair or Easy Jet equal or sometimes exceed the prices of regular airlines. So any price increase will have to take this into account, which is why there is no chance that these new regulations will not cause a drop in revenues and profits. I really advise you to stop thinking wishfully and focus on the facts. And think about why large aggressive investors are getting rid of shares of low-cost airlines.

Passengers could be allowed two bags free of charge on planes under huge law change

Https://news.sky.com/story/money-live-personal-finance-consumer-latest-sky-news-13040934?postid=9794162#liveblog-body

I have explained my point of view on Wizzair shares many times in recent months, when the market was singing about £20,.., £30 or more per share. I do not like to repeat myself, especially since nothing has changed in my opinion. This includes the long-term assessment of investments in this sector and in Wizzair against its background, the issue of the impact of the conflict in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East - which has only worsened, Trump's coming to power, and above all the issue of management inside this company. The conclusions remain the same - free drifting on a slippery slope until a takeover offer is made (in one form or another). The entire external confusion is deepened by the wrong policy of the management both in terms of securing fuel prices and spare parts, and building this airline's network connection. Too much politics and the obligations flowing from it, too little business thinking. But of course everyone has their own thoughts and opinions.

Kpa1

Your fairly clear view of the market and Wizzair shares unfortunately ended at the time of premature purchases. What should have ended quickly as an unsuccessful speculative investment becomes a well-considered purchase for you. This purchase at the level of 1264 from my point of view will bring you losses in the range of 35 to 40%. It's your money, so your decision.

1091 pence .... it will be looking interesting after another 25-30% drop in price. But of course no one forbids anyone from living in a fantasy world.

B777CAPTAIN

What makes £9 a buy and £10 not a buy?

Over 10% difference if you bought to expensive shares and you ate losing your money. And I not said that £9 is a good price. I just said that on this level I will recalculate my risk assessment for Wizzair shares... I try to respect my money, assuming that unnecessary risks in most cases end in loss. I stick to the principle "eat slowly with a small spoon, because most of it will spill out of a larger one anyway". And to tell the truth, at this point I invested my capital in such a way that it would bring me stable income with a good chance of a sharp increase in profits. I am not looking for a speculative opportunity, although Wizzair shares after another deep correction may create such an opportunity.

I admire the optimism here, probably based on portfolios full of Wizzair shares. Not wishing anyone failure for the umpteenth time in the last few months I believe, that such an attitude will simply hurt everyone, bringing with it large and specific financial losses. Time will show who was right, so let's stay in the world of dreams.

This 70% defines my own biases regarding what the report will show, and above all, what it will suggest regarding the next 12 months in Wizzair's operations. The fact that no one is officially talking loudly about what may happen, or there have been no voices suggesting that a new issue of shares to a specific investor (or convertible bonds) has not yet appeared - does not mean that no one is thinking about it or is not taking it into account. And the cost structure suggests that it would be a rational move. I do not have shares in Wizzair. Therefore, I am not overwhelmed by either the desire to earn money or to make up for losses. I try to look at this company rationally. Also so that when the time comes, I can perhaps take advantage of the investment opportunity. However, I definitely prefer investment laziness to too much risk ending in the losses. So I know that with this approach I won't touch the stock until it breaks £9. Then I'll reassess the risk again and make a decision.