Member Info for Plebleens

Onedb,

There is a degree of sense in that theory but the CFDs and swaps started at similar time to the fresh shorting activity, so lock-in levels not quite as potentially lucrative as they seem. Am away this week so not got time to look through the individual dates for each. The bigger shorts are also much smaller than the cfd/swaps position? (I know there are more shorts under 0.5%, adding to 7-8% as per euroclear) unless there has been some major amalgamation.

Definitely a client position. Who you think is the other side of the cfd and has assigned voting rights and why?

Other throries are cheaper way of building a position in the company pre takeover? Or accumulating a position ahead of a rights issue to play the volatility around the nil paid rights shares? (Which I slightly discount as the share price is so comparitively low now and amount raised will be small in current climate, so doesn’t make sense.....). More importantly had anybody asked IR? (Job for next week for me).

Have been rebuilding position again as I believe the OPEC stance is solid, post the black swan of khashoggi. Believe Iran sanctions will happen in May, once Venezuelan politics has realigned with Trumps plan and the demand picture for oil improves post t/a season and with an easing in Sino/US relations. Interesting times, with a few curve balls thrown in to make it more complicated.

Techs also good after the H&S broken on Brent. And totally agree with your RSI deviation.

Good Luck all

Million dollar question GTLD but I think we’re back in dip to buy mode having broken the range. Good luck with your re-entry tomorrow. Feeling the love?

Apologies mixing up HK Phooey with Doo

Good shout MO, lock it in to clear the decks and allow further acquisitions or being acquired. Proper Scooby Doo....if it wasn’t for those meddling bond holders.....we’d all be .....

Geo,

Why would it be insider dealing if they are just writing an option to protect a deal, and lock in the deal price. Trading around the optionality to remain delta neutral? But after the CBH debacle of last year, who knows? Certainly wasn’t played with a straight bat. Then again 1MDB springs to mind....,

Pure speculation on Goldman but the way the cfd position changes with the share price movement, they are trading around an option.....an option that ends up with a position that is 6% of the company’s equity as a hedge, has to have more to it than a simple punt. RI in current environment doesn’t seem plausible at current share price level.

This cfd position started being built in October, when the share price was on a whole different level and crude outlook was somewhat more positive. Any deals done, would need some level of protection, against the main driver of the deal. Ex Goldman employees are deeply embedded in Riverstone, who are affiliated to Talos. Also deal makers for DEA. Or could be a Mol catcher purchase..... something’s afoot. All random thoughts appreciated

Capra chart from early on shows it clearly. 2nd shoulder starts around 11th January. Not perfect but is also a mini H&S itself or slightly upward slanting channel. Break out last night after hours. Bottom of head was Christmas present for the lucky few around 50 bucks, which I assume is the dojo reversal on the weekly chart that you were referring to.

Still applies on the weekly chart for h&s. Target over 13 bucks higher... production outage, Iran sanctions, demand increase as sino/us tensions ease....mid term target so had time to develop.

And more than happy that we have decently broken and closed above the 100 day MA

And that Brent inverse head and shoulders breakout working well. Even came back to test the neckline before bouncing resolutely. $77 dollar target....yikes....more positive news on the way to fulfill that target....falling in love with the position once more tonight after a decent positive day ( and no massacre), blue pills all round. hopefully not a one night stand for those day traders. FCF . Debt reduction...accretive assets...job done

So Goldman reduce on the 12th, an up day, and will no doubt see a reduction in holdings tomorrow and Monday vs the last 2 days of the share price rising. They own a put or a floor price option with a strike price no doubt much higher than current levels. They are trading around this position which is a locked in floor price for either a deal that PMO are about to do, or for a client ( riverstone, DEA, Equinor, sovereign wealth fund etc) that is potentially after an easy way into the Mexican assets, with negotiations on going and having started in October, when we were in a different share price environment. Doesn’t feel like an RI to me but not my field of expertise. Answers on a postcard, whilst this slowly plays out.....

Nice explanation Lemarc and it has a link to why GS are trading around a floor price or put option and have been doing so since October. Would like to assume a strike price nearer October levels than current levels judging on the amount of delta they’ve had to buy.....

PMO Gap filled and crude broken inverse head and shoulders neckline.

Slog back up the stairs to true value.

Nudging that neckline of the inverse head and shoulders around the 63.65 mark. Decent upside if you measure the tip of the head from the Xmas Brent low. Brent now likely to close above 100 day MA.

And S&P closing above its 200 day MA. All positive signs. Should fill the gap on the PMO chart finally. Keep checking Talos for after hours news.

Good Luck in the morning

And install new Govnt in Venezuela, allow oil imports back but counteract it with sabre rattling about not renewing the waivers for Iranian oil in May.....

Counter seasonal draw in last nights stats, see what the EIA brings, as the OPEC cuts and Venezuelan sanctions start to feed thru to inventory levels.

Interesting juncture on Crude charts with both Ti and Br bang up against the 100 day MA. Also more obvious in Brent but close to breaking the neckline of a deep inverse head and shoulders pattern.

Gap to fill on PMO chart. And no doubt slight reduction on GS holdings by end of the week....

Just to point out again that the RNS refers to action 0n the 7th Feb, when the share price was falling. They buy on the way down and sell on way up, hedging some sort of option they have (possibly some sort of floor price or put). Strike price had to be higher judging from the volume they had to buy on the way down. Still not grasped if they are protecting an asset purchase for PMO or position building for a client such as Riverstone, DEA or a sovereign fund.

Oil is in a tight range and the share price needs a new fundamental injection or oil stocks to start reducing over next few weeks, (unlikely til maintenance season stops, although Chinese buy 6 weeks ahead, so not long to wait ( and Iranian waivers are up relatively soon). Lack of love rather than manipulation as seen by the bond holders.

Gap still to fill above

Bored but patient

I personally think he’s a decent poster. His Technical Analysis is solid and well reasoned, ditto the financial analysis, which he is picking up from his CFA course. Some of the fundamentals, like many on here, a bit spurious, and sometimes can appear a bit hindsight, but mostly honest with his position posting. Appeals to my permabull nature at this point in the economic cycle. Andy never liked him, because of his Mainly positive arguments and the fact that he used to work at Blackrock....I wonder why....? Or as Branson summed it up one bored sunday, maybe half the characters on this board derive from the same keyboard with the intent of creating more volatility than an episode of East Enders. Time to watch another episode of cracker

EIA saying US crude production up 345kb in November.....grrrr...let’s hope the China talks Go to plan

Looks more like they have an option on something. The holdings RNS are always delayed from when the position crossed the threshold. i.e todays RNS relates to 25th,,,all the RNs are 3-4 days delayed. Pattern not totally clear but seem to add as the mkt comes off and reduce as we go up, which if true means they have either bought a put or sold a call (or maybe both) and are trading around the position....As I have said before it must be a substantially sized option that gives a delta of 6% of the company's stock. Its CFD related so not being loaned out to the shorters....And seems to be client driven....there's a massive connection between GS, DEA, Talos and Riverstone, which could be 1 line of speculation....or they could be underwriting a purchase or asset swap for Premier. Will keep digging.

Tim Cook obviously has heard some chatter from the top, and the next round of Chinese talks well underway, and supporting the market. Saudis shown their clear intentions, just need to chew through a few stocks at this time of year, where there is a seasonal lull. Gasoline cracks are higher than fuel oil cracks, which is causing havoc with the refining margin ( a few cutting runs). Loss of Venezuelan barrels doesn't help, and extra shale oil, needs to be mixed with something heavier. Feels rangebound for next couple of months, albeit at good levels to pay down debt, helped by a decent hedging program.

Gap to fill to 77.87 still and we back above the 50 day MA

Apart from poor refining margin, negative RBOB cracks, ( brings refinery maintenance forward) post Chinese New Year buying lull, and excessive shale oil hedging from the banks to protect their capital (verlegrrs articlr was a good explanation of the recent drop). On the plus side Davos seems to be sorting a few world trade problems out , which should change a few demand forecasts going forward, Venezuela will get worse before it gets better (also takes too many heavy sour barrels out the market) and OPEC compliance is looking good, just need the Russians to follow through. Buying on support, just may take a few months for the rally to start, no doubt around April time.

FCF is much better than last year (catcher at full tilt) so debt being paid down at these levels. Goldman still orchestrating a mystery option for their client (not lending CFds out to shorters, which has remained static in recent weeks). Chevron assets will be cherry picked hopefully, as in current NSes firesale, prices should be depressed. IMO 2020 still the unknown but certainly screwing up the refinery margin.

Don’t let the remoaners affect your investing decisions. Most on here have an agenda or love getting their strings pulled....

Harami candlestick. All good

Looks to be closing this mornings gap. Another 4 points or 5% to go. Will leave a decent positive candlestick as well. Shorts still to close and Goldman likely still stake building for their ‘client’. Feels like a customer driven order to me. Let’s see when they next show their hand, and which party wants the shares more...