Member Info for Plebleens

Will be at Catcher Sat am. Call that 7.5 day t/a roughly. Steady rate again.

Geo, those Statool results were excellent, let’s see how BP and she’ll fare next week. Great cash generation at these levels.

Close above the 200 day MA again hopefully. Brent finding its support on that MA. 2 bounces so far.

US recession? Unlikely whilst the tax cuts are propping up the economy. Fed is the one that can do the damage but that unlikely for a while. The herd will inevitably come back bargain hunting. Most commodities holding up well on this move and Chinese policy throwing plenty of lifelines.

To counter that, the likes of BP and PMO tend to perform better with a stronger dollar. Sterling costs, dollar revenue....just demand gets hurt in emerging markets.....

That was 104.9 on the 200 day MA ;)

Lines also seen as a must hold on PMO chart and cluster of support

200 day MA at 114.9
50 week MA at 99.8

Weekus horribilis, few lessons learnt by myself about greed once more. Stairs up, elevator down.

So far this morning we have bounced off the highs from Early January that took an age to finally breach, and Brent bounced just above the 200 day MA this morning. Prefer this support level to the 99p one many are talking about, but volatility is so high that could be gone in a blink of an eye. Daily RSI are also in very oversold territory, but I guess we all know that.

Let’s see EIA export numbers this afternoon, as they were low last week due to storm Michael. API number looks to be catching up. Crude buying 6 weeks out for post maintenance runs should start to happen from now. No Iran vs what can the Saudis really pump, and how many refiners want more Arab Heavy? Chinese crude imports not slowing and country still growing at 6.5% according to their officials. Demand bull or demand bear that’s the one to solve, as production can’t hsve that much room in my opinion.

Stena Natalita at Dutch anchorage awaiting orders and unlikely to go to Glen Lyon.

Good luck all

BP reports q3 results Oct 30th and Shell Nov 1st, so will be interesting to see the cash generation at these levels of crude. Not comparing apples with apples as they have major downstream parts, but will provide some colour to gauge the industry.

All valid points Ros, and with demand over 100mmbd now.

Export figures were skewed in yesterday’s stats after disruption from hurricane Michael, but saying that physical diffs on land locked oil are terrible due to logistical vonstrsints, which are restricting output growth in the shale gas. Venz, Angola, rates still suffering. Iran barrels going into floating storage, with their vessels turning off their AIS. No insurance company will cover the ships, so only a matter of time before the oil runs out of places to go. Trump has the tapes from a Turkish intelligence, let’s see how the game of chess plays out.

Dark, 30 days after BL, Standard industry practice, and brought up during conversation with IR. Don’t get me wrong, I believe debt is very much being paid down, yesterday’s comments are more to counter some of less realistic comments about paydown. And that there will still be a caped stagger between q3 and Q4 (overall less than 1h).All looks to be operationally going well, Catcher is in a ‘more sheltered’ part of the NSea so less likely to have weather delays at this time of year. Despite having a 10 day turnaround on last lifting, the 3 previous liftings more than made up for it and will be interesting to see the subsequent pattern now that the drilling rig is pretty much finished. Remember hedging for balance of year is only 40% so plenty of upside to the cash flow at current oil prices compared to the plan. Gas prices creeping up as well. There are few reasons why we shouldn’t be looking towards the higher end of guidance. Shorts are not sinister and more a play on the oil price. Current geopolitical events, oil demand over 100mmb and dwindling supplies from certain OPEC countries, should mean that the oil price doesn’t drop too far imo.

Finally has destination Catcher for Friday. Don’t think I missed a boat so there was 10-11 day lifting after 3 7 day turnarounds.

Remember oil payments have a 30 day lag.i.e the company only receives the money 30 days after the ship has declared its bill of lading. The company guidance is for net debt decrease 3-400m which also includes asset disposals. I think we are more likely to see net debt reduction 1-150 for 3q and 2-250 for 4q. Financial hedging transactions are usually settled 5-14 days after the pricing period (usually the end of the month) so there will be some discrepancies there. Also capex still higher in the early summer period with continued drilling and commissioning costs at Catcher. Ensco 100 is just finishing its last drill of the program at the moment. But with bal of 2018 only 40% hedged, I reckon that the lions share of debt reduction happens 4q. Many need to manage their expectations for this trading update. It hopefully shows that we are heading in the right direction and hopefully at the higher end due to sustained higher quarterly Brent price. As usual there will be plenty of hype before to build this up and then a contagion if bulletin board disappointment to shake out a few and cause some volatility. Good luck however you play this.

-2.13 crude draw vs expected 2mmb build.

Along with strong finish on Dow and FTSE futures up, we should close that gap tomorrow.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/mexico-oil-contracts/rpt-mexicos-lopez-obrador-pushes-big-oil-to-hurry-but-offers-little-idUKL2N1WV1UY

Usual from IR, that all going to plan and they don't get bogged down in specifics, and that if anything was going dreadfully awry out there then they would have to log it with stock exchange.

Catcher performing well and they have over performing days and lower performing days as they are still testing parts of the field, and the FPSO. There is capacity to outperform the nameplate capacity but unlikely to do that for a sustained period so as to not to cause any damage. Wouldn't be drawn on whether we are at top of guidance range and whether we are outperforming debt reduction, but currently they have no issues with what has been previously said. Higher prices obviously help with only 40% of remaining 2018 production hedged.

Zama, will start appraisal drilling before the year is out, hopefully in November. They have a very good working relationship with Pemex and don't see any issues with the installation of the new President, on licences that have already been granted.

6-7% shorts are within the normal range. Retail/Institution ratio is now 25/75. Many of peers are nearer 20/80. they have not seen any institutional holders offloading on the volatile days and most of the trading has been via the retail brokers.

More detail in 3q Trading update.

Geo,

They were apx 8-9 days apart then we had a smallish break followed by 22nd Sep Stena Natalita, 29th Stena Natalita, 6th Oct Navion Oslo. And either missed one this weekend or they are changing something in the field. Will let you know after I have spoken to IR.

Evening,

The last 3 liftings were 7 days apart, implying a 70kbd rate, but we haven’t had a boat this weekend that I have seen. The AIS has been playing up recently, so I could have missed one, but with the Navion Oslo still at Dutch anchorage, have to think they are tweaking with the Wells or tieing in new production wells at the moment. I will check with IR tomorrow.

On the Brent price achieved it will be tied into the dated Brent price, which is the cash settlement of the 4.30 pricing window each day. It’s been very whippy over the summer being sub a dollar discount (to the front line Brent price, which is the 7.30 settlement price) but is positive at the moment, although the forward curve is showing roughly 20c discount. Assume there are some pricing agendas going on at the moment. Also believe the hedged price likely to be the dated number. Overall though price is higher than forecast in last update snd believe that we are at the higher end of production, with potential to go higher in this quarter. Saying that debt reduction in 3q will no doubt surprise many as the accelerated pay down is only really happening this quarter.

Interesting late rally in the share today. RBC upgrade on top of Barclays last week backing up the confidence of the institutions. Gap to fill at 131.5ish first.

Better week hopefully

Thanks MO

I wasn’t totally clear on my last post. Ensco 100 had an 18 drill program on catcher 2, due to finish early September. Is this over run or extra drilling?

Ensco 100 is back at catcher. Drilling new wells to increase capacity? Anybody remember the website that Matrix Observer uses that summarises the activity.

Gap to fill on Pmo chart as well up to 132 ish

Looks like there may be a rush to rebuy liquidated positions this morning.....Strong Asian markets overnight and start of reporting season. Shakeout seems to have been quicker than Feb.

Good Luck all

Watch out members you’ll be on Andy’s Christmas card list if you carry on with those emotive scenarios. Maybe you already are ;)