technicals and fundamentals31 Aug 2018 11:04
When technicals and fundamentals align, I put my portfolio sectors or individual shares to max bullish.
Oil looks strong as the recent overhang of physical has started to clear. Chinese tea pots are back out buying after a lull after the summer tax changes. They are being forced to buy more west African as Iranian crude is now a no go. This has had a knock on effect to N Sea barrels as refiners need to cover for the pick up in demand in Q4. The floating storage is clearing quickly and finally seeing signs of backwardation back in the Brent curve, as demand outstrips supply. Dated Brent diffs also moving back up, which is good for Catcher barrels.
US has expensive bottlenecks curbing supply.
Angola and Venezuela production is dropping, and Libya and Nigeria are unstable.
Demand expected to be up in Asia and India as shown by the IEA numbers.
Crude technicals pointing to post 80 bucks, based on that double bottom neckline crossed at 75.80. Just need to clear the corrective channel at 78.
PMO chart has one of the best positive monthly candlesticks seen in a while developing and next week or the week after the 50 week MA will golden cross the 200 week MA. These are highly bullish mid to long term signals. And we know the fundamentals are good with oil above 70 dollars and current production rates. Bond holders gone next week, then we can look at purchasing those MOL barrels. Then there is Zama to come, and of course Tolomount. Debt on a downward trajectory 2h.
So in my mind both Oil and PMO have technicals and fundamentals aligned. Powerful combination. Good times?