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Good Candlestick developing on the Premier Chart. Bodes well for next week. Enjoy the weekend one and all, should be beautiful

A respectful Elliott Wave to Andy who is still an avid reader of the board and clarified some of yesterday’s points. Warrants being exercised yesterday causing dilution was the main driver for the share price drop along with the dump in flat price crude. And it’s 25 days after July 28th for the forced conversion of the bonds. I hope some of the naughty little tampers have helped him with some of his investment decisions as well. 5 steps forward, 3 steps back. Enjoy the ride.

US holiday has been known to bring a bit of an enthusiastic finish to the markets, let’s see if there is a pre holiday buying spree today in the oil markets and indices. Big draws forecast at Cushing again. Not out of the question to speculate on $80 ti as the tanks empty quickly through this month with the Canadian problems.

Geo, I don’t subscribe, could you summarise please. Thanks

Where were you last week? This story currently has more impact on the market than OPEC. Canadian syncrude outages. 360kbd loss. Likely out most of July. Cushing tanks draining fast. Cushing is the pricing hub of TI. Very Bullish just like the Libyan problems. Just small issue of Trump and Chinese demand lull to resolve to get this back above 80 bucks......

Navion Oslo already back at Catcher after a week. All good on the operational front.

Anything possible in Mexico but DEA officially signed the contracts as operators, of the new blocks awarded in March, 5 days ago. DEA’s Delgado has connections to Obrador, and Obrador only last week said that they were happy with the contracts awarded so far in the previous licensing rounds and would only stop the process if they found widespread corruption..... Forced conversion of the bonds can take place from 28th July, should the prior 25 days have a closing price more than 140% of the agreed conversion price. Watch Polygons short increase

Anybody off the top of their head remember the date that Premier can force convert the final bond holders? It’s sometime this month if I recall. Somewhat disproportionate move today. Either polygon and friends hedging or we have news coming about adding more debt/acquisition in my mind?

Those sales have to be convertible bond hedges against the likely forced conversion next month. An increase in short positions by Polygon et al will confirm this. Certainly got absorbed pretty well this morning

Maybe spoke too soon on break of the consolidation and looks like we still in the triangle formation. Tested the horizontal top 3 times now at 120.50 and this looks like the key resistance holding back the floodgates to making new yearly highs. Bottom of formation slopes up and cuts in about the 105 level.

This decision to set up a seperate National Oil Company in Eastern Libya to handle oil exports can only lead to an escalation in tension. Crazy move. Will deter many western oil companies from picking up oil in Libya. Sweet North Sea crude is the perfect replacement for the Med refiners. Another bullish factor for Brent that doesn’t look likely to be resolved quickly.

Brent now on verge of breaking out of the downtrend from 80 bucks, which it’s been in since the end of May. Key area..Decisions decisions....

Gap to fill from Fridays close and mini double bottom on the hourly chart with neckline around 75.10ish, worth 1.35 to the upside if she breaks. Let’s see

That Canadian oil sands processing plant problem knocking out 360kbd for the whole of July looks like It’s sticking two fingers upto Trump. No wonder ti/br has moved over 6 dollars, and Goldman are referring to it as more significant than OPEC meeting. Yet more ammo for the bulls and not helping to drag those pump prices down

Fridays rally has emphatically broken the period of consolidation that we’ve been in the last few weeks and should mean chartwise that we go on quickly now to make new yearly highs. There should also be some decent momentum in oil stocks now after that OPEC decision that I don’t think we can rule out a test of 150 before the trading update and much higher before year end.

Apologies Biffadog, skim read your post too quickly. Glad we concur and nice to have some reasoned debate amongst the 1 line bloodbath, tin hat, roofer, lift off, 60 and 80 other highly informative posts.

Surely Polygon are back locking in ahead of the forced conversion of the remaining CBH coming up? So not an outright short. Middle America relies too much on their FAANG and other stock market gains to keep consumerism alive. Trump can rattle but will not kill his golden goose. Let’s hope those apple products don’t get any more expensive....OPEC are at least a little more predictable and as usual leave very few surprises for Friday. Amundsen Spirit heading back to Aberdeen for orders. A lifting as soon as this weekend would reinforce that greater than 60kbd pump rate at Catcher. Still looks in dip to buy mode to me.

Apologies being thick this morning meant 50day MA. Thankyou for the correction. Candlestick forming well. Still amazes me how much more this gets punished more than its equivalents, despite the recent change in stock ownership. Few more changed hands this morning it seems. Good luck to those rebuilding their positions. I’m still in the camp that OPEC will not over react and let this gradually move back up towards 80 bucks with reassurances that they can dampen the spikes. Supply damage has already been done.

Bounced nicely off the 200 day MA. Let’s see how the candlestick ends up tonight.

There’s an argument that many of the funds have already bought, as if you look back at the shenanigans of inclusion day, the volatility and optionality was massive as we went through the will they or won’t they scenario. And there is also an argument that you see a gradual buying of shares in a systematic fashion, especially as the funds are becoming comfortable with owning oil and gas companies once more. But the most important trait is that it provides support and stability, as there as been a mass transfer of shares from pi to ii. In my mind we are now more highly linked to the crude price until the next projects get sanctioned and reserves get booked. Probably worth 4-5 points for every dollar of crude moving exponentially the higher we go. Just got to break out of this consolidation period. OPEC meeting should be fun, but overall I think it will be a war of words to stop the crude price spiking too far from current the range and then they let it gradually increase to the 80s to avoid economic shock. The supply damage is done. On the negative side for us dated Brent is pricing weakly at the moment as their is a lull in Chinese Demand, no doubt as the tea pots await for new import quotas. Catcher looks to be 60kbd or more based on the liftings. The MOL news must be coming soon as we have now reached plateau on Catcher. Have to think negotiations are already well advanced. Let’s see. To repeat yesterdays thoughts, these simple trends in oil and commodities don’t come round very often. Not out of the question that we have the same trajectory as some of the miners did.

Few of the tracker funds starting to appear on the roll call. Scottish Equitable, Zurich, Invesco Perp. Probably stops the share from falling too far from these levels. Consolidation the name of the game on the chart. Breakout soon, usually continuing the trend in direction the previous move.