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Despite the headlines, Brent bounces off the 200 day MA with a decent looking candlestick. More than likely in my opinion that we heading back to top of recent range around $75.80. Should bode well for PMO tomorrow, building up to hopefully a more volatile September. Dollar income, decent sterling cost base. Anybody any idea how much of our Fx is locked in, as strong dollar seems to be favouring us.

Genscape predicting builds at Cushing this week, as some of the Canadian syncrude starts to work it’s way back in. Pumping station still not fully operational though and not expected to be til Sept. China slow down and tax changes on the verge on bankrupting s number of the tea pots has allowed NSea barrels to back up, hence the contango at the moment, which has caught out a number of trading houses. N Sea Maintenance should tighten things up a little and expect Chinese buying to come back in the Autumn. The other danger is the protests in Iran as sanctions start to take effect on an already struggling economy, although heart of hearts can’t see them backing down to the US. Agree that Aramco IPO is unnecessary as long as crude is in the 70s and they will keep kicking it down the road. Stuck in summer range for now, September can’t come quick enough.

Amundsen Spirit due back at Catcher later today. All good

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/15KQ/13736867.html

All pointing towards September, which could be a good month. How about this for a logical sequence of events, or is the heat making me hallucinate....? Next drilling results from Zama. Bond holders mandatory conversion. Cairns arbitration starts 20th Aug and should last 2 weeks. Joint bid for MOL catcher assets results announced, which should become instantly accretive if won. Merge with Cairn, massive debt reduction freeing up cash to develop Zama and buy out the other partners. Bankers more than happy. Share Price somewhat higher....

Remember the cbh have less to lock-in this time so the selling pressure won’t be as intense as last time. And the funds and institutions are mopping up the fidgety PI holdings. Interesting to see Royal London and Old Mutual now on the team sheet with reasonable sized holdings. Still believe we break resistance on this up move and establish a new range for the Autumn push, especially with all the solid institution buying. Zama update should be soon. As an aside Cairn arbitration hearing starts Aug 20th at The Hague. September usually a good month for oil. Stars are aligning once more

Exactly ROS1. All a bit deja vu. Have been on holiday last 2 weeks and the range is tight and harry hindsight would love to have traded it, as the signal was so obvious like last time. On the plus side, there are less bonds to convert this time, so you won’t see the shorts reached the previous time and oil is still well supported and the institutions are firmly embedded. More importantly once they are gone, the lid can be removed and we should be able to break resistance, all be it in a more diluted state....higher range coming in the Autumn? Still in uptrend and still like dip to buy mode. Probably means that no more MOL catcher news until September. Cairn arbitration result due this month....,

Or a merger with Cairn to pay for it? Arbitration decision sometime in August May free up a decent chunk of cash for them......

As well as beautifully filling the gap this morning, price action bounced strongly off the 50 day MA, just like Jun 18th. Bullish Candlestick forming to take us into next week.

Saudis don’t like $70, Trump doesn’t like $80. Looks like a decent range to play and well within the range for paying down debt.

Now where is that MOL news? Do we have to wait for the arbitration decision from Cairn before anything can progress?

At least chart looks better now with gap filled. Another dilution day from bond conversion?

All the bullish headlines appear , as soon as we get near 70 bucks. Houthi rebels drone attack on an Aramco refinery. Also the huge Amuay refinery shuts down as gasoline demand soars in the states as well as Cushing drawing down once more on the back of the Canadian issues. A real shame that we didn’t close the gap on the PMO chart, still bothers me a little, but looking like a positive start in the morning for oil stocks.

Seer, all the dips are getting easily bought despite lower crude. Trend is solid, higher lows and higher highs. The institutions are adding and the percentage of PI is diminishing. 135 area is a minor resting point. The momentum is very much with this share and wouldn’t be surprised to see 150 tested by the end of the week. Let’s see what Trump and Putin can come up with later. But US corporate earnings are good and so far counter acting the trade war fear factor, which again many believe to be bluster. Most of the tech stocks report next week which should make interesting reading. Dow crept back above 25k. Good Luck

Next resistance are the highs from early 2015 around 190, lots of free air on the chart.

Bizarre day, brilliant candlestick sets up well for tomorrow’s price action. Higher lows, higher highs? On trend. Most of the energy sector held up well today and the miners also mainly positive. Feels like movement of big money flowing into the sectors dismissing Trump’s trade war as hot air and bluster, and taking advantage of the dip. US quarterly earnings starting to roll in better than expected. Money also flowing into PMO today, seemingly little worried about the rate that the debt is being paid down, which has been the BB’s topic de jour. Will also check in with IR early next week. Good to question but don’t see any huge concerns in today’s update.

The infrastructure is already there and the seismic data appraised, and some oil is flowing; rather than starting afresh somewhere new. I am sure they are diligently trying to get a workaround, as the oil is definitely there, and others are also working hard around the West of Shetland area. They just need to try and correct their initial miscalculation of the reservoir. Geo should probably be able to explain in better detail.

I suspect another priority is to secure the Catcher barrels from MOL. Replaces natural production declines in the portfolio before Zama comes online. Banks should be appeased for extra capital spend with extra hedging to comfortably lock in the margin. Anybody remember when the Solan redrill was happening. At one point thought it was during this summer’s maintenance period but think it got pushed back to 2019. Another relatively cheap production fix. Shame we didn’t fill the gap below at 120 this morning, as still a bit of an outlier but instead went for the gap up to yesterday’s action. Beautiful bullish candlestick developing again so far today......

As I keep repeating these clear trending commodity based opportunities don’t come along very often. Good Luck and enjoy the wave.

Just means that when the resistance does break, it will rally all the harder. Norway strikes, Libya exports halved vs some possible waivers on Iranian oil. Powder keg, only to be dampened by a trade war. Fun trading times

Funny how two little ducks the muppet factory hasn’t posted over the last 2 sessions......at least it’s consistent. Apologies for wasting oxygen

Very well put ROS1. Just remember the ‘dilution’ dips just help to keep the mcap in line on the days they happen and have so far proved very useful dips to buy for the 10% trade. Otherwise the trend is still clearly up. These type of oil related events don’t come along very often and am happy to ride this move. The debt reduction accelerates over the next 2 quarters unless our MOL asset bid is successful. But even that will be a positive. The 130 resistance should break tomorrow with current momentum, which will bring with it plenty of auto traders. Very few resistance lines then til we get to the 2015 highs in the 180-190 area. Good Luck