Member Info for Plebleens

Look at Goldman’s cfd position in itv last year. Came to nothing apart from some bid speculation. Was I’ve 20% at one stage with minimal shorts....not had time to check the stock on loan data

Surprising fact was that Average Stock on Loan for March showing as 19.13%. When I spoke to IR mid month they said total shorts were 14% and decreasing....

Still in 2 minds as to whether Goldman’s long CFDs to lend stock out to clients to net off shorts. Today’s RNS was an increase based on April 1st action which was an up day...which was virtually reversed on the 2nd April, in the latest RNS.....stock to Lend was minimal. Anybody found the company yet with similar patterns? Pearson group?

Assume there will be a sino trade update later....$70 oil and a close above 200 day MA going into the weekend?

To waiver or not to waiver is the main outlier at the moment, that stopping this market rocketing. Getting Maduro out is taking longer than expected, so increase in supply from Venezuela not going to happen any time soon. Saudis happily filling up storage for summer burning (particularly low exports at moment)and rest of OPEC want the price in 70-75 area. IMO 2020 skewing the refinery margin but all in all good for distillate rich nsea oil. Need a steady controlled rise rather than October’s spikatron. Gut feel is that he comes up with another round of slightly less strict sanctions, although this time he has the FED on side and light at the end of the Chinese trade tunnel so has the stock markets in a better position to absorb a gradual increase in commodity prices

To be more precise, he has had a 3 week sabbatical as gk10 and andypop1, ever since the share turned northwards.

Frustrated? Suppose it is a bit of a frustrating job having to spam the board repeatedly with negative sentiment, especially on down moves and volatile days....certainly managed to keep in character for longer than most.

200 day holding us back for the moment; a break of which should provide a pop to the 105-108 resistance area.

Be lucky

Funnily enough Andy stopped posting as well, after the share price finally moved out of its depressed, tightly controlled levels. Does make you wonder......

GS still have 7.28% length despite a decent chunk of shorts closing

Self fulfilling prophecy as the quicker the share price rises, the quicker they have to cover, triggering others to cover. Oil fundamentals and Pmo fundamentals aligned and looking good. Imagine doing all that hard work in 4q2018 and having to cover in 3 digits....basic execution...

Members, you forgot to mention that Premier has recently hired the ex Afren directors to handle the revenues from Zama.....Good luck

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-27/offshore-drilling-makes-comeback-after-years-in-shale-s-shadow

Press article on the conference Talos attended.

Shorts still need to cover before the Zama news hits. Takes a strong nerve to cover in such a systematic way, poor execution imo, ezpecially when so many have already started to buy back. Wouldn’t want to have to explain to your boss, why you are the last one to cover. Move should be exponential as the momentum increases.

Brent candlestick indicates further upside tomorrow. Uptrend continues.

Stock on Loan was 18%ish at its peak this time round, have to think under 10 by now, with recent action. IR get the daily Markit number if you call them.

AHL reduction accelerating.....

Market ignores Trumps hot air. Seasonal demand picking up, along with Chinese buying, Saudis will store oil at this time of year for domestic burning over the summer. Great Brent candlestick today, onwards and upwards to $70...

AHL reduce again, steady buying each day, whilst Voleon creep back above the 0.5%.

Crude demand is picking up again post turnaround. Chinese Teapots assume have been given new quotas and picking up decent volumes once more. If OPEC doesnt blink then stocks will continue to draw as seasonal demand picks up and $70 should arrive sooner than later. At which point expect some hot air from Trump. Saudis want this 70-75 bucks...so do the shale outfits

Paid disruptor disguised by a cardigan whilst, sucking a werthers original . Alfa can’t believe you had to justify yourself.

The other poster boy of the bulletin boards seems to have gone quiet....suppose no longer needed to try and keep it in the vwap range.

Following similar pattern to last year as the shorts reduce into a rising crude market.

Still looking to test the 200 day just under 100 then stall around the 105-110 consolidation range, hopefully after the early April Zama news. Get Brent above 70 and 125 should be insight.

Good luck all

Hawkey,

We are in the FTSE 250, and have been since last year.....? Currently ranked 220ish, with plenty of headroom..,,

Remember last year when shorts reduced....momentum now on our side....200 day Ma just under 100. 0ctober consolidation area 105-110. Looking a decent target before end month. Crude above 70 and see us nearer 125

Good luck

Shorts decreasing....200 day MA tomorrow?

Somebody’s trying hard this morning....as per update next Zama news end of the month/early April

Next major stop should be the 105-110 area where we consolidated for a week in October on the way down. Also the level we go to when they force converted the bonds and the ftse 250 entry wobble day. 200 day Ma around 100. And count from the low of 55 to the 80ish neckline, gives us 25 points upside from the break or 105 level once more.

RSI slightly overdone but we’ve been overextended before for a much longer period.

Have to think we likely to see another reduction in shorts tonight or tomorrow....wonder if GS gets longer physical shares...RI, Asset swap or Takeover? Apollo and Riverstone still to show their hands. So many portfolios for sale that there has to be some decent bargains to be had, the longer the negotiations drag on

Demand picture robust, OPEC compliance good. Refinery maintenance peaked, Chinese buying is back and stocks are drawing.....strong weekly candlesticks on oil, pmo and the indices with record cash flows back into equities. History tells us how momentum treats pmo once it gets a head of steam. Next target is to back above the 200 day MA to the 105-110 area, which with current momentum is easily achievable in a short time period imo.

The shorts are closing, have to think total stock on loan has dropped to nearer 10% having been 14% 2 weeks ago. Goldman increasing position. All the good signals are lined up again. Look at last April, if you want to see what happens as the shorts reduce. Handbrake off, will be adding once more, and looking for above the October high. If GS increases again....,have to feel they could be acting as bag carrier for somebody.

Good Luck all

In which case GTLD best you go buy the Dow or S&P...same candle and MA, but with different set up, 50 MA also about to cross 200 on the Dow. Should be a positive week.

Funds increased oil length last week, which is also encouraging. Norwegian sovereign fund still needs to get a Parliamentary approval before switching strategies....although seems inevitable, and they did mention the same last year. Nsea crude very dediranle for distillate production...imo 2020 still to bite.

Good luck here and at Prestbury Park next week...

And beautiful dragonfly doji candlestick on Brent. Very positive for next week

Triangle/down channel broken with this mornings action. Should get to 80 now and close above 100 day ma. Target 105 area, where we held last time, before production numbers let us down....

Buyers market for nesa assets. Tax credits have huge value attached to them.

If GS reduce on the upmove then they pricing an option of sorts. If they add...game on?

Indirect voting rights attached to somebody else’s shares. Extra 1.27% non cfd related. Decent chunk. Somebody’s going to have to show their hand soon. Interesting timing ahead of the results. Hopefully questions are asked at the presentation....