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Rocket attacks on foreign oil company compounds in Basra (Iraq’s biggest export terminal) this morning feeding the provocation, like the ones near us military base yesterday

And you be careful on your execution tomorrow; hopefully the morning scramble doesnt spoil your buy in price ;), imagine getting those digits mixed up again and paying 76 instead of 67.

Will agree though that not an easy market. Good Luck

Brent chart showing nice bullish engulfing candlestick on daily chart....outside day

And ti developing double bottom. Key neckline resistance just under 55 bucks, targeting 4 dollars upside

Meanwhile Brent related premiums on the move as Middle Eastern freight costs jump...and Saudis reducing exports as they hit peak burning season for power generation over summer months.

Chinese refiners coming out of turnaround season.

More importantly dovish fed and stimulus in Europe and China

And keep looking for those Talos post market announcements...has to drop soon

Financial Crude Long Positions were at their lowest since Dec at the beginning of the week, so plenty of room to add, but what is more worrying for the bears is that the Funds had ended up net short on distillates on worry over an economic slow down. With IMO 2020 kicking in in 6 months time, and Trump showing positive vibes to China,there should be a decent short covering rally - probably as quick as it dropped. Despite major physical tightness in the front end of the markets the over bullish financial positions were the major damage to the price action, just like the October fall out, and caught many off guard, me included. Great turning candlesticks from over sold indicators on the techs.

Saudis still happy to support this market and with OPEC meeting delayed til 11th Jul (post G20), have to think the bears have run out of steam.....

Now whats the chances of normal seasonal draw for once.....on current price momentum, looks more than likely...

Bullish engulfing candlesticks on weekly Dow and FTSE charts....,.shame not translated to oil and PMO yet....

GS upped their price on Tlw to 3.37 from 2.60.

PMO probably due a couple more upgrades....

Can people please try and work out which Brent price they are talking about. Jul Br contract is expiring tomorrow and is currently 1.55 backward to August, as prompt supply is extremely tight after Norwegian and flirts outages mixed with the lack of supply of on spec Russian crude to European refiners. August Brent will have a huge contract rollover gap to try and fill especially with summer maintenance in the NSea around the corner

Dated Brent (off which most of the Nsea barrels price off) is over a dollar premium to front line Brent ( and Catcher barrels should be a premium to that)and is again a reflection of the current tightness in the physical market and price is set at 4.30 uk time. On the downside expensive crude makes refining margins suffer so need the product demand to stay strong as we go into the higher demand summer season.

OPEC meeting over a month away, just the small problem of a trade war to deal with, but with 900 US troops getting stationed in Saudi and Qatar, Middle East tensions should only rise. Iran exports down to less than 0.5mmbd, fighting in Libya and threats from the new niger delta rebels to attack oil installations from June 1st. To the downside the market positioning is overly bullish, similar to October. Great Dragonfly doji on Brent yesterday.

Crude about 80c higher than ftse close....double bottom at 81.75 or another false dawn.....?

Front month Brent spread 1.40ish, the highest since 2013, when crude was trading above $100. Physical diffs tightening daily in the prompt. OPEC meeting just over a month away, something has to give.....

3 days til Jul expiry and will leave a huge contract rollover gap.

But we traded positive circa 11 o'clock so the gap down was filled?

Either way golden cross on the MA

now just whether May resignation drops FTSE or press summons to the Whitehouse tonight about infrastructure package helps support the US indices

Only an Island top if it gaps down tomorrow and doesn't get filled.

Conversely have 200 da and 50 Day Ma providing support and about to golden cross

either way chart wise at a critical juncture

Sankeys, more likely very obvious which group bought this after throwing the kitchen sink openly talking about selling it......

AHL bought a big chunk back of their shorts on results day, suspect we will see similar pattern through this week, especially when we see what they bought yesterday. Trust very few on these boards....;)

Nah looks more like a ti/br repositioning. Green light for more exports with all these tariff postponements and no tariff on crude exports.

With a very real danger of an oil spike, I have no idea, why any institution would still be short oil stocks.....Should be buying them to hedge against the situation. With all the bullish headlines, surprised Brent not making weekly highs going into the weekend.....suppose just over 5 hours left to change that....doesn't felt me like a go home short into any weekend these days. only a week and a bit to go til Memorial Day.

Good Luck all

And the headlines keep coming, Flotta gold pipeline shut for repairs. 60kbd....no end to tight front end supply and steep backwardation in the front spread....,

Memorial Day 27th may, start of driving season and expected to be the 2nd biggest gasoline demand day on record according to the AAA. Gasoline stocks on east and west coasts at 5 year lows apparently.....,

Seem to be headline after headline for the oil bulls, more so Brent than ti, as stats countering a lot of the noise in US. Saudis openly blaming Iranians for the drone strikes on their infrastructure keeps trumps sabre rattling, but the Russian pipeline contamination problem is the bigger issue in Europe. 19mmb built up now that needs to be diluted 30:1 before being accepted by European refiners;logistically hard and with storage filling up, the fields feeding the pipeline may need to be constrained. That pipe carries 1% of world supply. Wouldn’t be the one explaining to Putin that they left the lid off the bleach bottle. Coupled with yesterday’s shutdown at Statfjord due to a spill, the tightness in the Brent front spread is manic, until alternative supplies can be found. Feels to me that all building to new yearly highs in a relatively short time period.

Great PMO update as was hinted from Tony 2 weeks ago. Solid outlook and should encourage more institutions, especially those that need to hedge an oil spike risk to the world economy.

Good Luck all

You’re welcome ;;)

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4262257-talos-energy-inc-talo-ceo-tim-duncan-q1-2019-results-earnings-call-transcript

Just to correct Steve73 on the other channel, the catcher production has always been quoted as BOEPD so 68.5 (from the MOL results) is above the revised plateau number from earlier in the year.

Bit early in the year to revise but would be nice to be near the upper end of the production target for once, the q4 number hit the share price hard.

April average stock on Loan 17.77%. Down a bit but still high. But not always used as an indicator for shorting activity....Anglo American, Whitbread, premier foods, btg etc all have similar or higher...all speculative takeover targets.....looking forward to Zama 3 drilling conclusion....