Member Info for Plebleens

Tanking....comedy...like you’ve dusted off one of Andy’s scripts.....,although he never over posted after a couple ;)

Crude stabilised from this mornings fall. The Mexican hedge program although mainly option based still adds to a bit of flat price pressure. Along with other producer hedging further down the curve as we get over 60. Seems to come in waves.

Brave enough to buy back as see the mid term downtrend getting tested again. Close back near 61 and next week should be good. Extra Chinese stimulus announced and Saudi OSPs decent numbers should keep the demand numbers ticking along.

Mexican Hedge chatter sent the bots into reverse. Frustrating indeed

If you draw a line on the Brent Chart from the April high through the May high and the 2 July highs, it cuts in at 62ish where we failed so far today. This is the key downtrend crude needs to break to really get this show on the road...,

Pretty quiet from the so careful crew today.....

2 longer term chart patterns that so far proving correct

Island bottom

And the monthly candlestick, which is more text book bullish. 85 should easily go tomorrow and wouldn’t be surprised if we track back to triple figures relatively quickly. We all know how this moves.

Brent broken 60.60 and now heading for the downtrend resistance line somewhere near 63 bucks.

Shale will not buckle, rather it will consolidate, for instance Chevron still has a war chest to pick off the weaker companies.

IMO2020 only 3 months away. Don’t underestimate it or the Saudis need for higher prices.

XOM...?

Not my field of expertise but maybe unknown party position building without wanting to own physical stock or show ones hand....or a financial transaction/deal in process ...does not feel like the previous ones with the conv bond holders as the shorts over 5% are relatively under control..,

IR will know

For example Inmarsat has over 40% out on loan in Aug.....and they are subject of a .....

Average stock on loan for August 24.69% unsurprisingly high with the drop in oil price and the trading statement so late in the month.....but it’s not all loaned out for shorts.....somethings afoot...

Can’t see the headline and indices relatively unscathed. Chatter about coordinated computer sell. Cleared the stops (inc mine) pretty quickly. Seems oil focussed. Nat gas and other commodities off slightly in sympathy.
Russians production slightly above agreed rates but will catch up .

Cheaper rebuy now they’ve taken out the stops?

Yes Peltata, the most pertinent observation to be had is that PMO is now the wrong equity short versus the oil price.....has to be a shift/transfer of big money sooner or later. Remember not all stock on loan is a naked short....

Off to enjoy the weekend, Bon chance

Ever since Katrina, there has been a tendency for a pre labour day rally in oil ...so may defy the DBNO logic today. Brent above 60.60 should be the green light. The triple bottom on the Dow also helps

That island bottom key reversal pattern on PMO worked well, plenty of upside from here from the chart pattern. Monthly candlestick a chartist dream as well. If only Donald did technical analysis.....

Good luck and enjoy the last big weekend of the summer...

Assume MrD is long again.....

No golden cross....but St. Leger day soon

Also triple bottom in play on the Dow. Reckon new highs before the next tweet.

Brent needs another 40-50c higher to break its neckline. Physical market tighter than a gnats...decent premiums...just needs to translate into the futures market.

Short closure happening with a reduction in numbers today or Monday?

Filling those US pipelines draws a large amount of crude. Let’s hope hurricane doesn’t cause any demand destruction.

XOM my front runner for Sea Lion, with their vested interest down in Argentina. Asset swap some NSea relics, keeps production numbers up and kerching on the tax credits.

Looking highly unlikely that this mornings breakaway gap gets filled. Island reversal pattern in play. Minimum target 87 . Plenty of headroom here. Probably some Broker upgrades a plenty tomorrow and next week ?

Talking of brokers , Wonder who XOM main broker is.....? NSea assets for sale/swap, Mexico , and a presence down in Argentina. Juicy fees ....

Island bottom for now. Great signal.

Gap to close to the upside first surely?

With Zama sale , catcher upgrade and excellent fcf, all means next round of refinancing becomes a whole lot easier. Have to think the shortest will need to switch targets for their proxy oil price equity tracker as PMO no longer the obvious target. Should be very supportive for the share price. Big chunk of shares to cover and switch.

Well done MS once again....

That 7th Aug low on Brent has decent bullish divergence on the RSI. 200 day about to cross the 100 day once more. Bottom should be in

PMO has a decent tempting gap to fill up to 79 area. Will be Nice to have a gap up as well to put in an island bottom then close the monthly stick off with a decent doji.

Good luck for the week.

Holiday observations

MS is the interesting one; the trading arm must be gutted bailing out the position on what looks like on the lows. Wouldn’t be the first time over cautious management stopped out a commodity book position at an inopportune moment. Suppose it gave the rest a cheaper buy in.

Houthi are getting more confidence with this 10 drone attack. Americans likely to impound the Grace 1 somewhere off Greece. Difficult to be short oil at these levels.

Buy the trump driven dips still holding true. Fed cuts next, Recession a while away. Apple likely to make new highs. Big money hasn’t bailed out of the bill run yet.

Exxon love a bit of Argentina. Perfect farm in opportunity to swap for some tax efficient Nsea assets.

Oil up as Saudis agree to keep exports under 7mmbd. Not that hard at this time of year as crude burn season to power all the air con.

But also the downtrend line from end July broke yesterday and bullish divergence on the RSI. $60 should be back with us very soon....looking for $63 by end of next week. Trade length is small so plenty of room to add

didnt take long for the constant spamming to restart..... suppose need to fill the blank space to keep the click rate up for the advertisers....