Member Info for Playboy007

It's a miracle!

Ha, I am braced for significantly worse. Cash at the ready. Speed read RNS and then I expect to double up here. Wasn't last year's in February though? Might not be tomorrow.

It seems clear to me that 20k won't be achieved for Q4. It seems likely that essentially no ounces were added after the last announcement. It also seem likely that January will have had low ounces and high AISC. Why do I say that? I've been going over details of the Yanfolila deposits. The main pits needed dewatering, so nothing was being mined until that was completed. It takes more time to get ore out of deep pits. Gonka should be coming online, but mineralisation doesn't occur there until about 40m down. So there is a lot of expensive stripping to do in Q1. After that the improved grade at Gonka should provide a significant boost to ounces mined and AISC. SE looks pretty good and I am keen to see the Q2 updated resources estimate. Kouroussa is a different kettle of fish. The resource starts at a shallow depth and is very high grade for open pit. They are going to make decent money off Kouroussa when it comes online. There is a reason the development asset comes first on the presentation and Dan emphasised they were more than Yanfolila in the recent interview. In summary Q4 is going to be terrible and Q1 is going to be fairly shocking too. After that there should be a dramatic and sustained improvement. Then Dugbe DFS and finally Kouroussa coming online. I will continue to add aggressively through Q1.

You have to wonder if hedging at least part of future production might be a good idea at this point. If there isn't a significant improvement in performance from the imminent update, I personally think they should hedge to limit the risk of Yanfolila becoming cash negative. Add that to the lost of questions.

12p was meant to be my entry, but I got greedy... Doh!

They have clearly taken some steps to address the operational performance. I wouldn't want Dan removed before seeing how these play out and corresponding Q1 AISC at Yanfolila. If it is another disappointment I will personally contact Ruffer et al. to see if they are prepared to support the removal of Dan. I don't think it is in shareholders interests to do this at present.

And you weren't wrong. Another big dump from the large seller. At some point enough people here are going to look at the assets and the valuation and jump in. There are 3 decent assets and we are priced like a total gamble explorer. It's looking ridiculously cheap at this price and that's factoring in the risks and Dan's inevitable imminent bad news RNS.

Q4 is two fold because clearly the current operators are cowboys and we would be better off switching back to the original operators. Second, if it all goes tits up I want to have an idea of how much cash and exit from Mali will burn.
Finally, in the interests of transparency I am buying hand over fist and if I accumulate many more I'll have to fill out a declaration. GLA

12) Can you talk us through changes to the team. Why were they made and made you choose these specific people. Why was Murray Patterson replaced? Did he mess up? If so, did that have a bearing on Yanfolila AISC? Tell us about his replacement? Is resource modelling her sole responsibility?
13) Has the extra excavator had the desired affect on ore volumes? Are you now at or near 100% capacity?
14) Are the army still there and has there been any further expression of discontent.
15) When did you last go to Mali?

Any ideas for questions then?
1) What is a realistic expectation for AISC going forward and why?
2) Are you now mining Gonka and how is this likely to affect volumes and grades?
3) Have you identified any supply chain risks due to the implementation of sanctions?
4) How quickly could the Yanfolila mining contract be terminated?
5) What made you choose current COO and how do you rate his performance so far?
6) Are there any supply chain issues with Kouroussa build e.g. Concrete.
7) Where are long lead items being purchased from?
8) What is your plan for Dugbe. Are you going to sit, sell or dev. If see are Pasafino's backers a potential suitor. Have you had conversations?
9) When are you buying more shares and how many?
10) Are you intending to ever issue more 1p options. If so, please justify for a laugh.
11) Why are you still holding Bunker Hill? Surely you should just sell it down? Please don't tell me this is still on your radar?

Kaiser the new mine is funded with debt from Coris bank already. The CAPEX is $115m including pre-mining and $100m is already agreed. The production from Yanfolila should be above 100,000 pa as they are now mining the high grade Gonka deposit with another excavator to ensure ore volumes. This should lower AISC considerably, hopefully in the 1200-1300 range as an approximation. The figures you have quoted for the reserves are incorrect by more than an order of magnitude. That was just the increase in reserves with the last update. The next update will include 40,000m of drilling and if you look at the intercepts it should be a substantial increase. Then there is the imminent DFS on Dugbe and its 4M ounces.

We've got a big seller... again.

Careful what you wish for haha

I agree that Q4 will be worse than you can imagine. However, I believe they are now mining the high grade Gonka deposit and have an extra excavator on site. So the hope is 2022 will be a different kettle of fish. There could be more disappointment, but equally I could see a case for this going up many multiples in the next year or two. A fair risk/reward proposition in my mind.

Does anyone else think the accounting review sounds a bit like a euphemism for, stop people knicking gold!
PROCESSING REVIEW
Plant sampling and metallurgy accounting review
Maintenance audit and gap analysis

So we are all calling BS on them being able to raise rates.

Pasafino is getting some live. I wonder when that news will drop.

Somethings going on here. Can sell a lot of shares, but can only buy 50000.

You'd like to think they are still well stocked after mitigating Covid related supply chain issues. The Q4 numbers are no doubt going to be awful. Dan sounded very dejected during that interview and was very keen to point out Yanfolila was only a part of HUM. I don't mind discounting Yanfolila to nothing at this price. The reality however is that it could easily be a negative. High AISC already means there is little room for manoeuvre if there are any issues which affect mining and contractors still need to be paid. The question is can they turn Yanfolila around this year and stay on track elsewhere. They are not exuding confidence. Does anyone know anything about the track record of this new COO? As always with HUM this is a high risk/reward play.

Assuming,
Special dividend from sale of Dugbe. Announcement of third project.
Turnaround at Yanfolila.
Second mine nearly online.
I am going to go for a year high of 36p.