Member Info for Playboy007

https://www.france24.com/en/20200829-divisions-emerge-between-mali-junta-opposition-leaders

Personally, I think you are mad if you think this is over. There is a power vacuum in an already unstable country and the military are trying to cement power for at least 3 years. It may all pan out well for HUM, but risk has increased significantly. I think HUM has tremendous potential, hence I am still watching. For me, the current risk is nowhere near priced in.

Different conclusions make the market. Mali is too big to have the choke point you refer to. If what you suggest where true then the armed groups wouldn't be running people and drugs through the country and the French wouldn't have been needed in 2012.

Personally, looking at the UN peacekeeping forces track record, I lack the optimism in their ability to maintain order. They couldn't do that when there was a government. Mali is a huge country, if it was 10,000s in Andorra, I'd have more confidence. In my opinion the risk is nowhere near priced in here yet.

I really feel for long term holders here. I hope this comes out the other side as the winner it should be. At least the recent deals have moved some risk to different countries. I will be taking a large punt if it goes to 10p region as I suspect.

The instability in Mali has been building for a while now. It seemed inevitable there would be a regime change one way or another. This potentially has implications for many of my other investments in neighbouring countries, if a power vacuum leads to an increase in extremist influences. That said, if you look at Tanzania where Alacer and Shanta are, there was a similar set of circumstances which let do their share prices being hammered. It turned out to be false panic and Shanta has recovered nicely. Nationalising the mines is great in the short term, but financial suicide longer term, as inward investment would cease. You don't have to be that smart to work that out. So even with a regime change I'd expect HUM to continue to prosper and I have a buy price plugged in which reflects the evolving risk/reward dynamic.

To you lot! Well deserved after such a long road. Hope you hot £1 before Christmas. Not bitter I sold out at all...

Well I am out again. I think fair value is significantly higher here, but I don't like the political situation in Mali at present. Good luck to you all. I hope you hit £1 by Christmas (won't be bitter at all).

One of the things which first drew me to Dan Betts was his response to being asked about the outlook for gold. He said, anyone predicting the gold price is either an idiot, a liar, or both.

Haha, I think we have lift off. Only got a small holding here, but after 5 years or so of being in and out, it's nice to see it coming good.

Wierd to use g/m though.

Those intercepts are fantastic. Very high grade, decent intervals and shallow.

Looks like regime change is inbound imo. I wonder what economic reform will look like for miners.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-53117095

HUM's share of CORA looks like it will be around 5% by the end. Could have been 50% easily. I don't see it as a case of either or Tiger, I think they could have done both. Don't even get me started on BNKR or AGG. I agree the news of late has been good, hence I am back in for a small amount. The Mali security situation deters me from further investment as much as the Dan show these days. Still, looks good value at these levels even after discounting the aforementioned.

HUM should never have diluted their stake and should have financed Cora themselves. This new deal is part equity, so more dilution for HUM and they are paying 10%. Madness when they only need $20m and it pays back in a year.

More misery in Mali. It sounds awful out there. I hope things start moving in the right direction soon. Looks like it need has deployment from France or preferably the UN.

I did completely agree that it was time for a dividend. However, now they could use the next 2 years profits to build the mine without taking on additional debt. That would save us 8-10% per annum on a large sum. So, if they are going to build this second mine, save the cash and consequently the interest payments. I've been in and out of HUM for years. I can wait another 2, if it is worth the wait at the end.

I would like to see a Crux Investor interview, or a conference call with shareholders. The contempt for shareholders continues.

I am back in for a small amount. Last RNS is exactly what I wanted to see when I got AAG and BNK instead. Dugbe farm out doesn't really matter, as was worthless (or worse) to us in existing form. Damn, if dodgy Dan was ousted I'd be putting a lot more in. Role on Q2.

Olddrongo, what makes you think Betts is behind ARX and who are the Dattels? Just passing as saw the drop, so apologies if I missed something obvious. On a side note, the drill results don't look great to me. Deep and short intersections, that said, it depends where they sit in the bigger picture.