RE: Potential !!!!!!!7 Jun 2020 09:05
Marvellous, let’s follow up RDs hypothetical scenario. We’re alright jack, we’ve only cases in Skeggy... what happens when people from Brazil or India fancy flying in? How long do you fancy keeping international borders shut? Fancy a summer holiday? Tough, they don’t want you at the moment as they don’t know if you’ve got it. I’m not suggesting these tests will remain in place forever but in the short term you need them in use as widespread use as possible and flights are an extremely obvious place to start due to the risks. If it’d been contained in Wuhan you wouldn’t be sat typing on this BB.
I’ve said all along, this whole thing could be resolved in weeks if everyone on the planet agreed to perfectly isolate at the same time. That’s not happening. If you were extremely aggressive with testing, say the entire globe was tested for a month with everyone positive isolating for 2 weeks, it’d be gone. That won’t happen either. Mass screening in some form is the only way to get back to a genuine normal, not this ‘new normal’ nonsense. If screening is not entire populations then it makes sense to do it at the main high risk points, aviation is definitely one of them.
Let’s consider public transport as you’ve mentioned it. We’ve fewer cases now, should everyone pile back in the tube en masse? Millions of people shoving their faces in each other’s armpits every day? The r value is 3, that’s a fast way to a second wave. Unless there’s mass screening.
Want to go to the gig/theatre? Can’t see that happening without a test if they want to open soon etc etc blah blah. Looks like DM is staying in for a while too, apart from the pub you’ll go to, with it’s great socially distanced atmosphere. I doubt it will happen, but if there was an govt approved app and you had to have a negative result within 24 hours to go out normally, I know which night out I’d prefer. Don’t be fooled by the ‘new normal’ being the solution. It’s not normal.
These are all short term things (<6m?) until it’s globally contained. That will be achieved quickly by rapid antigen tests being used in extremely high numbers but only initially. I wouldn’t be shocked to see national government testing to help them drag themselves out of the mess they’ve made of track and trace. I do see it used in other key industries, aviation being one, until it is contained globally. In addition, unless everyone wants to live 2m apart, you’ll have employers wanting to look after their staff. Ocado bought 100k tests for example.
Ultimately though, we’re psssing in the wind, who knows? So typing all that was a waste of time. Hopefully Awacta will have a test that can potentially be used in all those scenarios and one day we can pop back and see how well these posts have aged. As you’ve said, modest levels will see fine returns, so we’re debating how big our private yachts will be, not a bad position to be in.
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