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B2, remember which board you’re on... post a different answer on each is my advice

I posted similar thoughts in an FDA thread yesterday. It was an excellent post, I had it down as a 100 rec banker, but it wasn’t to be. Michael Mina is pushing for lower S&S tests, but they don’t even exist so the FDA currently have no reason to change anything. The FDA are also aware our test is on the way, if we meet their guidelines, again, why change them. Currently I don’t see them budging.

Similar themes to those in the webinar. I agree with you, I think they’re pulling up the ladder behind them. It’s going to be very difficult for anyone to produce an LFD of equal performance and that could be critical for others hoping for FDA approval.

Also, good to see Klaus working hard with his white coat on.

That includes development time. We’ll have a world class CE marked test in a matter of weeks, well worth waiting for

Gazala, you can see in to the future, that’s a gift. Get yourself some lottery tickets... hang on, you already have - go on Awacta

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/09/coronavirus-test-shortages-trump-plan-rapid-392520

Doug Bryant, president and CEO of test-maker Quidel, told investors last week that demand “will far exceed what all of the manufacturers in the rapid antigen space can produce, for at least the next several quarters.”

BD, the only other manufacturer with an antigen test on the market, anticipates producing 10 million test kits from July to September. It plans to increase production to 8 million per month in October and then 12 million a month by March 2021. President and CEO Tom Polen said Thursday that demand for antigen tests will "exceed supply in the foreseeable future at least."

Click on the download, it says capacity of 10-15m per year.

Their website says 10-15m per year

I reckon it means COGS. I also think that’s what Mina is referring to, I can’t see any way you’d get to a retail price of $2.

This doesn’t sound like a man that’s not busy deciding on which tie to wear when he eventually becomes Sir Al for real...

‘I am immensely proud of what has been achieved by Avacta's diagnostics team. Their progress in just a few months would have been challenging under normal circumstances, but with the additional restrictions imposed by COVID-19, it has been an outstanding example of hard work, ingenuity and commitment from a world-class team’

This is nailed on and it’ll definitely be headline news soon

Completely agree and I hope Sir Al’s ambitions aren’t too small, but it’s currently a balancing act until you have approvals and orders. If we end up with every LFD manufacturer on the planet wanting to churn these out, even if for only a £1 net, I’d take it.

B2, they will be, I think working with BBI is a great idea, a UK company to get everything sorted for approvals and issues ironed out and as you’ve said the onboarding of the other manufacturing partners will be smoother. Can’t remember which of the interviews, but he described talking to manufacturers- plural - and said ‘they’re up for it’. He knows who they are, what they’re capable of and as soon as we’re ready I’m sure capacity will be increasing quickly.

Hopefully there will. Same is true of the billions of pieces of PPE, the majority of it is disposable

JRDC, interesting info on PCR costs. Sir Al has said $15 for bulk buyers so £11.5. He’s said costs would be $2 dollars, but it’s never been explicit was that includes. Same goes for Michael Mina when he talks about cost of tests - are those just the input costs to physically manufacture them. Using the only two figures we know gives a healthy £10 gross margin to cover all other costs. For a high volume product I’d expect them on a per unit basis I’d expect them to be tiny. What’s left?

Packaging and distribution, tiny if you’re shipping in bulk to govts. B2B would incur additional costs for sales and distribution. For DTC you have more cost, but then the price would be higher, up to $30, so there’s an increased margin to play with.

We’ve no idea what the commercials of any profit shares are. We know we shared development costs with Cytiva so they’ll be getting a significant cut. Let’s use 60% as a net figure, so £4 of other costs as above to get £3 for Awacta and Cytiva. Effectively sell them at a tenner to Medusa, they have another £11.50 margin to play with and we have a profit share with them so there’s extra cash there.

It’s pure guesswork, but net profit per unit could be £3+. It then comes down to the volumes, but given demand of 100s of millions per month and as the only saliva LFD we’re currently aware of, this is a multi billion pound opportunity.

Once developed, the PR will take care of itself. Matt Handjob will be all over it and I wouldn't be surprised to see Boris at a lecturn telling everyone about it. Same goes for Trump due to the great American product we're developing.

A lot of govts look to the FDA and their approvals. Mina is only lobbying in the states so it’ll have little impact if the FDA hold firm. Looks like he’s realised that which is why he’s now trying to get individual states to go their own way. Bill Gates agrees with him and might have more global reach, but in this interview he just sounds weary from trying to best that drum in the US....

https://www.wired.com/story/bill-gates-on-covid-most-us-tests-are-completely-garbage/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=onsite-share&utm_brand=wired&utm_social-type=earned

Re: rapid test thread.... it doesn’t need a change in thinking, Awacta’s test will be the best of all worlds. That’s the jist of my waffle. The FDA know about Awacta, why would they change their opinion if they know that tests that pass their hurdles are on the way? Supporting Michael Mina would suggest the FDA will approve any and every antigen test. Given they’ve taken away EUAs for poor tests, I can’t see it happening.

WHAT?! Must have missed that.... that’s a shame...

Great choice sir.

It’s a great example, there’ll be loads of small businesses itching to use an Awacta.

Which hair?