Member Info for pipsjunky

Poland going to veto EU fuel restrictions, if forced will ignore them. Germany next. The cracks are beginning to widen. Makes a deal more likely.

Someones going to dismount the high horse.

Lol you two must be on the same medication. It’s over and out from me on this one, you can’t argue with stupid. Not many others commenting as most have already blocked you.

You are funny, you know nothing of corruption. Where did the Russians bring their money to hide it from the tax man? Yep, you’ve got it…London, the Mecca for dirty cash. Golden visas and shell companies. After the down fall of the USSR people bought state owned businesses and did well out of it, stood those companies back up. Now we like to call them the oligarchs, to perpetuate the Marxist hate of anyone who’s rich. Yet, we don’t call the Saudi's the same, though even more corrupt. You are selective, just the media narrative you’ve been spoon fed.

Did Russia just turn the gas off? Or did the EU sanction Russia first trying to economically cripple Russia? What did you expect them to do?

Did Ukraine mine the ports to stop Russia invading? Was it this that stopped grain exports? If Russia didn’t want grain leaving, it wouldn’t…it would’ve been incinerated.

As for businesses leaving, who’s loss is that? You think other countries won’t fill their place? Russia is now significantly closer to the majority of the worlds population, who have larger growth prospects then those economies leaving. Who’s the silly ones?

As for a mining company leaving a country with the largest deposited globally, I think it more likely POLY leaving the LSE. Time will tell.

Blue - then your conclusion is based simply on emotion, not reality.

Like Julian Assange?

One must not question the picture, it is simply a picture, but knowing the motives of the artist will change your perception.

Blue, to say "the world doesn't need Russia" is not what I think you mean, I think you mean "the world doesn't need Putin", there's a distinct difference. I know that if you were Russian and the boot was on the other foot, you'd see things very differently.

Russia has the largest land mass at over 11%, nearly double that of second place Canada. We can then consider its natural resources, all of which are very much desired and needed by westernised industrial nations. Those resources are currently valued at $75 trillion. (the next part I plagiarised):

*************

Natural resources potential of Russia is over 20% of the world’s reserves. This fact places Russia on a special place among industrialized countries. Natural resources used by the economy of Russia account for 95.7% of national wealth. There are large deposits of fuel and energy resources: oil, natural gas, coal and uranium ore.

Russia is ranked first in the world by gas reserves (32% of world’s reserves, 30% of world production), the second in oil production (10% share of world production), the third - in coal reserves (22 coal basins, 115 fields, including those in European Russia - about 15.6% in Siberia - 66.8% in the Far East - 12.9%, in the Urals - 4.3%). In terms of reserves of iron ores Russia takes the first place, in tin – the second, lead - the third. Russia also occupies a leading position in the world in wood provision.

In 2005 Russia was the richest country in gold reserves.

In Russia there are five major oil and gas provinces located in European part of the country and in Western Siberia in 10 regions and 11 provinces and republics: West Siberian, Volga-Urals, Timan-Pechora, the North Caucasus and the Caspian Sea area.

In addition, metal ores are mined on the country’s territory ores: iron, nickel, copper, aluminum, tin, polymetals, chromium, tungsten, gold, and silver. There is a great variety of non-metallic ores: phosphates, apatites, talc, asbestos, mica, potash and salt, diamonds, amber, precious and semiprecious stones. Very common are construction materials: sand, clay, limestone, marble, granite and other materials.

************

To say the western industrialised nations don't need Russias resources is simply not true. To think like that would be to stimulate cheaply the eastern industrialised economies. The west have put sanctions in place, to buy them second place.

My feeling is that curtailing NATO expansion many years ago, in order to allow peace, would've been the better road to travel. Our resource/power hungry nations, unfortunately don't play like that. We British are world renown for it throughout history, indeed you might call us toxic. Putin is still in kindergarten compared to our imperialism. All of those suppressed nations are now getting their heads together, unfortunately. Whilst we busy ourselves giving them pole position.

We must be careful not to stifle our own economic future, for nostalgia purposes.

Ironically Russia enjoys one of the lowest debt to GDP globally and sits on massive lands, full of significant resources (along with Iran). China and India will hover those resources, leaving none for the west, to sustain their continued growth. I think these sanctions can be summarised by the scenario; going to the petrol station and saying "I'm not buying petrol from you", ultimately the station loses a sale, not the petrol it owns, it s you who's going to run out of fuel and not get to work, who's it hurting most?

I feel that you could be correct in saying that the sanctions imposed by western nations have been economically significant to Russia, or at least with the way they used to do business...but that isn't the end of the story, they are simply transitioning to a new economy with the rest of the world, and doing quite well at it, it would seem. BRICS are simply rewriting the rule book and creating their own global economy. The west is a capitalist establishment, it would be sensible to understand that it will ultimately want to do business, no matter who that be with.

The largest and most significant point to understand is "who writes the rules" is changing. Its a rude awakening when you can no longer enforce your rules on someone else, something the west has enjoyed for a long time. This is the point we are at. I'm 100% sure the US don't want to put boots in Russia, or Ukraine for that matter, they want to keep it proxy, therefore the winds are changing, the book rewritten. Truth be told, Taiwan is more their concern.

Western posturing was always going to be a self inflicted economic pain, if you believe the Germans or other EU countries are going to simply endure a cold winter and their economy to be wrecked, you're probably not appreciating the larger picture.

I fear the most significant outcome of these sanctions, will be putting BRICS on steroids, lest we forget the population size of China and India, they will be the ultimate winners. Handed on a plate. What's the old saying "keep your friends close, and your enemies closer", we now have unwavering determination by the worlds future powerhouse economies, to break away from western imperialism, and in someway get us back for the colonial days.

Time to subdue the political posturing and smell the coffee.

Chippy, I think the work is "redacted"

I think Switzerland did get a specific mention in the Sanctions...I'll have to have another read. There was some reduction of existing sanctions too.

@Newdealz - My interpretation of these sanction 7 articles, is that they shouldn't cause issues.

Firstly, the EC only has jurisdiction over EU countries and the import, export or trade with those Countries. Neither the LSE or the countries POLY sell/transfer too are within EU. However it gets tricky when head office is in Cyprus, which is in the EU, therefore within the reach of EU Law. You could say that POLY an EU entity, is brokering, but they don't deal in jewellery. My guess is that the UK authorities will just cut and paste these articles into UK law.

I do like that the EC has flexed even the harshest of rules for cultural needs to cooperate with Russia: lol

7. By way of derogation from paragraphs 1, 2 and 3, the competent authorities may authorise the transfer or import of cultural goods which are on loan in the context of formal cultural cooperation with Russia.

Some benefits of not being an EU member anymore. Though I fear the UK will dance to the same tune.

You have to use an Arnold Schwarzenegger voice when reading item 5. "Diplomatic immunity".

Article 4q

1. It shall be prohibited to purchase, import, or transfer, directly or indirectly, gold if it originates in Russia and it has been exported from Russia into the Union or to any third country after 22 July 2022.
2. It shall be prohibited to purchase, import, or transfer, directly or indirectly, products processed in a third country incorporating the product prohibited in paragraph 1.
3. It shall be prohibited to purchase, import, or transfer, directly or indirectly, gold jewellery if it originates in Russia and it has been exported from Russia into the Union after 22 July 2022.
4. It shall be prohibited to:
(a)
provide technical assistance, brokering services or other services related to the goods referred to in paragraphs 1, 2 and 3 and to the provision, manufacture, maintenance and use of those goods, directly or indirectly in relation to the prohibition in paragraphs 1, 2 and 3;
(b)
provide financing or financial assistance related to the goods referred to in paragraphs 1, 2 and 3 for any purchase, import or transfer of those goods, or for the provision of related technical assistance, brokering services or other services, directly or indirectly in relation to the prohibition in paragraphs 1, 2 and 3.
5. The prohibitions in paragraphs 1, 2 and 3 shall not apply to gold which is necessary for the official purposes of diplomatic missions, consular posts or international organisations in Russia enjoying immunities in accordance with international law.
6. The prohibition in paragraph 3 shall not apply to gold jewellery for personal use of natural persons travelling to the European Union or members of their immediate families travelling with them, owned by those individuals and not intended for sale.
7. By way of derogation from paragraphs 1, 2 and 3, the competent authorities may authorise the transfer or import of cultural goods which are on loan in the context of formal cultural cooperation with Russia.
8. The Union shall take the necessary measures in order to determine the relevant items to be covered by this Article.’;

Does anyone know who POLY's present creditors are? Has this changed recently? Something has changed as they now have better terms agreed.

Thoughts here are.....if the creditor is Russian or European this would be an indication of which side of the coin POLY will falling on.

And....if you were scalping/day trading, you'd have entered a long position at the pivot confirmation, bottom of the water fall, for the +18% bounce, we have just seen last two days on MOEX. Taken a nice 10% and already be planning the next scalp at pivot. Waterfall is history. Consolidation and sideways ranging is the order of the day now, until further news. Which hopefully indicates a bottom support is forming. Negative news could change that. IMO

That's a negative Pippa....

Three consecutive down candles
Three consecutive lower closes
Each down candle has a larger range than the previous one
New 50-day low

Dependant on range/timeframe, that would be closer to correct on the weekly view. But waterfall ended on the 18th July. No waterfall patten now treacle.

That said, trading this with TA is folly.

Not sure what POLY chart you're looking at but the MOEX chart has risen 20+% in the last two days, looking to form a bull flag. Average trading volume is also nearly double average. The LSE is losing steam in comparison.

Blue, I'm no scientist, so can only listen to a wide range of academics, most say there's an issue with too much carbon and it's warming the earth. So ok, who Am I to argue....doing something for the environment must be a good thing, a lot of us have kids...pain now for a better future, is ok with me. I do believe this has become a political weapon for the likes of the WEF however.

When it comes to going green and investing, you've only got to look at the people well connected, like Buffet...who's just put billions into Occidental an oil producer. He's not risking without knowing. Though he does understand the simple metrics of supply and demand. The Americans know they won't hamstring theirselves because the Chinese won't, but the Europeans will shoot theirselves in the foot for some moral brownie points. Europe will be hit hardest by the zero carbon directives.... oil is not a never ending supply, so it's going to happen sooner or later, for everyone.

I do believe the slow drain, of transition to electrification is not the pending problem, its the FED and skatter gun interest rate hikes to stall their economy. Another 75 basis points this week has been speculated. If they squeeze too hard, bond markets will falter, then financial markets, then stock markets, then housing markets, we have a domino affect into depression, back to the 70's we go. No-one can afford a heat pump or electric car and its the perfect catalyst for the technologies, back to oil and coal we go.

When the FED tank their economy, the the backside drops out, bond market implodes, ensued by attempts to drop interest rates a lightening speed, Dollar dominate will slide. This is when you'll see the gold price increase. Businesses going from IG to zombie companies. All because of transitory inflation......or is it.

It's a tricky tightrope they're walking.

As we'll be going sideways for a while, let's have some constructive conversations about the wider economic world. Such as potential bond market implosion and potential alternative reserve currencies. We all hold many different assets and stocks, therefore the wider picture is most important. My belief is that gold price will begin to increase significantly over the medium term. If we do become a more polarised world, arbitrage is a fruitful playground.

With POLY my feeling is that they will ultimately want to be on the BRICs side, much larger growth opportunities and less regulation and bureaucracy. The CEO has "a substantial amount of personal wealth" on the MOEX, he's not going to want that jeopardised. As geopolitical and economic circumstances change so will companies to best exploit the market.

POLY buy their equipment from China now, produce in BRIC's countries and sell their product to Asia, what benefit, apart from institutional investment and credit lines does being registered on the LSE have? Sanctions, regulation, uncertainty and declining market are the downside.

https://news.bitcoin.com/targeting-the-us-dollars-hegemony-russia-china-and-brics-nations-plan-to-craft-a-new-international-reserve-currency/

Blue, Ultimately his hand was forced when the Americans installed Zelensky, it was a given that Ukraine would eagerly wish to be a NATO state. In which case Putin had to choose the better of two evils, fight Ukraine on its own, or fight Ukraine and the other NATO countries on his doorstep, to protect strategic access to the Black Sea. I know if I was getting in a punch up, i'd rather fight one than a gang, even if the gang were supply knuckle dusters to the one I was fighting.

It'll be the same as Taiwan soon, imperialism on someone else's doorstep. It's not if it will happen, it's when it will happen. It's glaringly obvious, it could be addressed now, but the situation will be left until it descends into chaos, China can be the pantomime villain then.

And don't get me started on the WEF lol