Member Info for Pickuzawinnah

@martinu. Someone did a few calculations on the board here a few weeks ago (it'll take about a week to locate the posting) outlining the likely income from EQT installations at different sizes (by MW). I honestly can't remember the details but one of the key positives was the the firm gets paid an amount (25%??? - probably not remembering it correctly) at project initiation and with a large number of prospective deals in 2021 the income could leap significantly.
Now, of course, on the one hand you don't count on a deal until the ink has dried. On the other hand a little pragmatism says that a standard rate of converting (1 in 4?) of the deals would lead to a BIG step up in the commercial results.

I agree with your subtext - some of the "predictions" are just speculative nonsense where I suspect either someone's misunderstood the question or is on the wrong BB. But it does look like 2021 will be the breakout year for EQT.

So, finally, to answer your first question, I would put 6.2p as my EoY prediction. That's based on tripling current Market Cap with EQT signing six medium sized contracts, and a bit of market sentiment for green stocks versus a bit of trading headwinds because of Covid.

. . . just wonder what the hell is going on ? This company is listed as one of the hot tips for 2021. It's about two weeks away from announcing a de-risking update on two major potential assets. The silver price is 50% higher than a year ago and headed upwards (today by c2%). Who the hell sells in any meaningful volume ?!

Fair to say today's was not the kind of RNS we'd ideally like. I find it massively irritating that the SP drops this far on such news. We all know it'll bounce upwards again in the next day or two, but just frustrating to fall 20% in a little over a week when we all know this company has so much going for it. Hopefully we'll soon all be basking in a more lucrative RNS pretty soon. About time we got news on the breathalyser and the waste-water analysis installations.

Yep, take your point. But encouraging signs. The roadmap is signalled with gov't comms indicating dates for announcements. I see this consistent slight rise (accelerating possibly a little today ?) as early speculation on that recovery. May yet be a few potholes to navigate, but the road looks a little less risky, imo.

. . . I see we've closed UP every day this week. A nice steady climb.
Time to add to our investment to benefit from the momentum ?

Covid vaccines have been available for less than 2 months. Look at Israel's early data on transmission after vaccination. And look at the work being done by the likes of N4P (yes, I hold them, too) to develop vaccination-by-pill. It is not impossible.
I appreciate a contrary view because it sense-checks the reasons I invest in something. A critical friend is a very useful ally. But my goodness, it's like you're obsessed with arguing everyone down.

Added to which, I would remind you that developments continue in the fight. We haven't simply developed a vaccine and then sat around mothballing the R&D departments.

Yes, that's precisely what will happen. Like when you go on holiday to a country which carries greater risk of fatal diseases and you get a shot form your doctor. It's not revolutionary, whatamess.

To be fair to PJ, he did post here early December that if there was logic to AIM share prices then Spock would be a millionaire (or words to that effect). Maybe he forgot his earlier correct interpretation of AIM shares.

And to be less sarcastically fair to PJ, there's been a bit of disbelief head-shaking from me, too. That's a great RNS, full of positives and supported by factual statements. A drop of 5% is silly. But an opportunity for some to join/top up. I just hope it doesn't fly until EUA has finally reached its conclusion.

Hahaha. Yes. Not a good performer. I'm 80% up in three months. And it's very clear that there will be considerable growth to come. I know the RNS is long so you'd probably lose interest by paragraph 3, but look at the summary below and consider the wider sector direction of travel.

Yes - Rsmithy007 - 100% yes. A more comprehensive version of my own views at 4:00 this afternoon. There is as much conviction on this BB about it falling as there is to it rising. But facts are not the same as opinions and the facts won't be apparent until after the event.mThere may yet be a further slow descent but equally there could be news which suddenly sends the price leaping. Which could happen tomorrow. Or next Tuesday, or in a month's time.

FWIW, I'm in for the medium term. I think there will be a slow and unsteady return when warmer weather comes and vaccination across Europe and the world reduces the danger of both transmission and fatality. If the price triples from here it'll still be 1/3rd its pre-Covid level, and we're talking about a leaner, potentially more commercially aggressive firm, targeting diversified opportunities and with Brexit trading uncertainty behind it.

Back in Sept/Oct I sold my shares because derampers were predicting a cataclysmic drop in the RR price. They seemed well informed and confident. I'd lost 10% so thought I'd cut my losses and buy in again when it's reached the nadir.
The following week the price rocketed over a few days to nearly double in a week.
Not trying to say this is going to happen again now. Just pointing out that the price can suddenly turn unexpectedly positive while some predict doom. We may yet see a bit more drift. But we might also see a sudden sharp bounce on some positive news or announcement. I sound like a weather forecaster predicting a 50% chance of rain.

Just so glad I'm holding for longer term. This slide is as frustrating as it is inexplicable given the sector's direction, recent positive news derisking, and the ongoing commercial pipeline. I don't mind myself because one week's retrace can be next month's dust. Now if only EUA would get on with it so I could release some funds to add to my holding . . .

Yes, I'd imagine the decision to prioritise Iron is to create income cashflow to fund the other endeavours. That's what makes UFO so appealing - the company should be able to turn itself to significant profit relatively quickly. And THEN have two more aces up the sleeve which it can unlock without placings.

@ Knowbodyyouknow - "Janssen is owned by J&J - it's the same one." Sorry, I'd jumped in because the title refers to the Oxford vaccine. Which I took to mean the Oxford/Astrazeneca. Not the Janssen/J&J.

Am I going daft ? They ARE different, aren;t they ? It's been a long week.

I concur. Of course we all want infinite rises but current position feels about right. Should see a steady(ish) grow throughout the year as pipeline gets converted to new contracts, and attract further opportunities.
I love a stock I can largely ignore day-to-day.

Different vaccine, Knowbodyyouknow.
Janssen - developed in Belgium.

Phoebus: "Probably be easier if they report how many meters are NOT iron." Genuine laugh out loud.
Which is miraculous given the inexplicable SP movement. How is this down c9% when we're a day closer to assay results on the iron, silver price is up 8% across two days, and it's one of the most watched stocks ?
Honestly, the longer this goes on, the more you sense it's going to explode rather than climb. Sorry - I know I sound like I'm ramping, but too many positive indicators to keep this market cap for long.

@Libero - couldn't agree more with your post at 8:33 today. We were just starting to approach realistic value a couple of weeks ago. This slide down is ridiculous (I'm only frustrated because I don't have spare cash to top up with).

I do think the one thing the company could improve is its investor comms in terms of announcing . I've noticed our beloved BMN tends to save up news and splurge out in one major RNS covering a variety of activities. Perhaps the fog-of-war in the intervening time allows the price to drift a little ? Still - looking forward to a major growth year here.

I can only imagine a lot of investors taking profits to bag a bargain somewhere else because of the carnage of the last 24 hours - or is that just MY portfolio ? :-)
Nothing's changed here and the company is in a great place. In a couple of months we'll see this week as a small downward blip on a generally upward trajectory.