Member Info for Pickuzawinnah

Good points, latpulldown. I suppose the risk here is that HMSO is a secondary link (IE: consumers don't pay HMSO directly, while the likes of CINE and CCL derive income directly from consumers).
Ultimately, imo, much of it boils down to whether, in the medium term, people will have switched to online or whether the experience of shopping in a place - almost as a social event - will have a massive pull after nearly a year of being isolated. And whether retailers will return with the same strategies, or whether they'll have taken the last year to revise strategies and use retail units for experiential branding/presence.
Fair to say I am holding for a LOT longer up the chart over the next 6-12 months.

Thanks streaky1. Helpful.

Agreed. Just pent up spring unleashed by clear evidence of vaccines' impact and path to end of lockdown and then Morgan Stanley's people seeing the opportunity for a significant gain.
There will be profits taken along the way, but imagine triple-bagging off a FTSE250 company within a year !

oh God - Peter Schiff is going to be unbearable on Twitter.
Intrigued why the SP has dropped a little here. Tree shake, perhaps ? It's looking good for ECR holders soon though !

It'll fluctuate, but definitely trending up over time.
Added to iron assay results we could be in an amazing place soon.

Me too Donold. Half my portfolio's been battered today and much of last week. But all anticipating good news or - in the case of DVRG - actually delivering it. Maybe just a short term correction or a migration of speculators to crypto ??? Either way, patience required to win.

Sold another holding this morning to join the MODE family on the various confident predictions of a stellar week. Down 8%. Timing, as they say, is the essence of comedy.

Agree with you silverhorse, but don't see GGP is "dangerous". Sleeping now, and undoubtedly (imo!) Bitcoin is absorbing some of gold's potential, but quantitative easing leads many to think gold will increase in the next couple of years along with a sharp rise in inflation. Anyway, plenty of room for both GGP and UFO. At least I hope so !

Don't be daft, silverhorse. :-) It's not a binary race. GGP is nearly half its recent high and due news soon which means it could rise. It's in a VERY similar situation to UFO and I'm in both, as I suspect many here are. And gold is tipped to rise by many experts, much as silver is (though maybe by not quite as much). Excited for UFO this week.

Yes, pops, completely. Expectations versus reality.
I'm in EQT, too, and even ignoring the people being silly, many of the more sensible predictions on SP are very optimistic. I'm predicting around a three-fold increase and my expectation is the lowest. Similar here. Short term can be good. Maybe double or triple. Long term possibly phenomenal.

. . . wouldn't want to be out of this over the year ahead.

I'd just like to point out that when Pfizer announced its success in November, two of my holdings got pulverised: AVCT and ODX. I made the mistake of leaping out in a panic and lost a lot of money. Now look at them. Both back up to about where they were. Within three months.
So while today's announcement has clearly ruffled feathers and raised harsh words on the BB, I believe we're seeing a sharp drop that'll be followed by a steady increase. Maybe some bumps along the way but we'll be back up to high 2s / low 3s soon.

The engineering issues dogging early production will be resolved - otherwise I'd expect there's a specification in the contract with LEMU about output productivity that will trigger significant compensation. We know the machine is actually working and producing. And they've secured materials (trust me - procurement in organisations like an NHS Trust or TfL will definitely want to know supply chain is safe). These are two absolutely critical foundation stones that must be in place before securing commercial orders. So we'll soon get news on orders and increased production volumes, and in the next few weeks this will have been seen as a blip. All IMO, of course. but on the back of experience.

Hi pops.

That "astronomical" rise in the SP you mention has surely largely evaporated. Late last year there was a silly UFO bubble from 0.5p to 3p before a very quick descent to around 1.3. We're now at 1.1p; double the pre Capstone JV news and to my mind suggests that much of the anticipation that was factored in has since sold up and put its money elsewhere.
Agree that some (SOME) of the current price is speculation of news that's been factored in. Can't deny that I have invested because I'm anticipating positive news, for example.

One thing's for sure, we'll soon know, once the assay results are published, we know to what extent they compare to expectations, and we see the market reaction.

Yes somerset - thanks for adding that. I had focused on a single venue night out. Perhaps reflecting that the pub crawl days are a long distant (sketchy) memory for me now.

Thanks Deever - I'd forgotten the date on the hearing.
The sense that the SP is being held artificially low may come from the echo chamber of "EQT is going to be phenomenal" versus the wider perspective of traders taking short-term profits and other investors looking for something more obviously well known/recognisable. And the Aries thing probably dampens the mood a little, too.

I for one want the train to stay at this < 2p station just a bit longer while I load on my luggage, some of which is on another train that's delayed. Hurry up EUA.

So here's the scenario as I see it. There's an interesting see-saw here on pricing; the lower the BT consumer price the lower the per-unit income, but potential for wider adoption. Much depends on production costs and shared licensing across three or four different organisations.
I'll be negative and say the test is £6 per pop. So meeting up with friends in London you take a tube Zones 1-2 is around £5 for a return. Not dissimilar to a Covid BT test. In other cities and towns you might take a bus (£3 return) or taxi £20 return (I'm using approximate figures). And then you spend somewhere between £15 (gentle night 2-3 drinks and a round of crisps) and £80 (couple of rounds of drinks and your share of a meal) or even something like £200 (few drinks, bite to eat, and tickets to gig), or £50 (access to a sports event, drink, and a sandwich or pie).
Suddenly £6 to enable you immediate access seems like a drop in the ocean to escape lockdown and see a major event live.
For me the question will be in the balance between "Covid passports" and instant BT.
The compromise will be for the venue to invest in the processing units if the punters pay for the consumer units.

@Bottomzup - my take on it is that the irrational exuberance last autumn around the breathalyser has maybe spooked a few investors. It may have tarnished the reputation when reality didn't meet expectation. How could it when expectation was so crazy ?
This is why I see today's news as a platform offering stability and the next couple of announcements will be what attracts buyers. IMO we'll soon see high 30s and maybe further. Trying not to get too excited.

@Happy - glad you didn't take it personally. no urine on strawberries here - it's all very encouraging and should trigger a solid upwards chart. Especially if this is additional to expectations and they increase 2021 guidance !!
@Paulcon - I may have misremembered that 2021 forecast. I thought it was £10M including all operations, on the back of their first profitable quarter. Either way, today's news certainly stopped mugginsthedog from yapping.

Looking at quotes from January's announcements, the big news we're all invested for is either imminent or we're all being shafted.

Dispatch/delivery announced at the start of the year . . .
RNS 5th Jan: "It is likely to arrive in Nottingham at the earliest on or about 8 January 2021, subject to any routine traffic or customs delays."

Let's say (most of) the machinery arrived on the 9th. One full working week later we get the following RNS, suggesting commissioning/testing was expected to take about a week . . .
RNS 18th Jan: "Assuming that commissioning proceeds as expected, the Company is working towards producing between 0.3m and 0.5m masks before the end of January" (production cannot start until the machine's signed off, and you don't produce c400,000 masks in a day so they must have been anticipating approx 7 days for set-up, allowing a few days for production.)

Then, of course not all of the machinery had arrived . . .
RNS 22nd Jan: "Commissioning of the machine at BioCity, Nottingham, commenced this week but is taking longer than anticipated, as parts have been delayed in transport from Spain, and will extend into early next week,"
So that 7-10 days of commissioning/testing couldn't start until (according to the RNS) roughly the 27th Jan.

Then the news . . .
RNS 1st Feb: " . . . without the Lemu engineers to assist in the completion of the commissioning of the machine, this will now be delayed until after their 10-day quarantine period has ended "

So by my estimates (and using RMS's RNSs) the commissioning/testing was expected to take around 7-10 days, has been delayed multiple times, but if quarantine started on 1st Feb for ten days then we should be on the brink of news in the next couple of days. Or we're on the receiving end of a hoax that'll have the FCA all over it.

I know which option I believe. It's frustrating, but I choose to hold for a big positive RNS in the next few days, followed by another one a few days later with confirmed orders on it.

I am not deramping, just keeping accurate because I'm invested and don't want to see false expectations.

The guidance was £10M. As in GBP, not USD. Today's deal is for £3.6M ($5M)
So that's 1/3rd of the annual revenue guidance in one sale, in one branch of the Deepverge world. So it's still terrific and puts us well ahead of the pace. But let's not start mixing currencies and setting the wrong expectations.