Member Info for Pickuzawinnah

CB - absolutely no delay in reporting 2020 financials. Look at the historic RNSs.
2018 FY results published in June 2019.
2019 FY results published 15th June 2020.

There was a commercial update published late Jan last year. But go back further and you'll see similar published in 2018 in late March.

Seriously stop winding yourself and others up. I know it's not easy when there's unexplained reasons for losing money, and I'm probably more calm as I still sit in (reduced) profit. But just for the sake of your mental health, dude. Unless I'm missing some massive news, this appears to be a large over-correction and once news arrives about the next site/contract we'll see ourselves climbing again. And with a more solid base of investors.

I asked similar an hour or so ago, JLP. Seems sector/market sentiment possibly coupled with director sale a couple of weeks ago. Doesn't seem reasonable for such a prolonged downturn. The only other reason I can fathom is that there might have been a great amount of speculation in the recent price rise, and if a swift delivery of new projects didn't get announced then people have moved on.
Daft, really, if that's the case. £100M cap for a company that's got 18 deals in the pipeline. I'm not expecting EQT to win even half of those. But if it converts 25% that's 4 projects this year. That's good growth.

I'd welcome others' better-informed observations.

So right now the MC is c£100M. About a month ago it was c£200m. Can someone - with evidence - show to what extent it was over-valued a month ago ? Or explain why there's been 2-week decline ? To my mind it's been hugely overdone. But I'm happy to learn from others ( so long as it's based on fact and evidence, and not on assumptions - those I can do myself ).

btw, a few weeks ago we were predicting end-of-year prices. I was one of the lowest at 6p. Right now I'd revise it to about 4.5p.

Similar. Unlike some, I don't expect an insane MCAP in a fortnight - this is a junior explorer after all. I'll be happy if we're at 3p by year end and set for 5-7p end of 2022. Really happy if it's more than that !
It's going to take proven deposits in the iron, silver, and copper than we're anticipating (and more than the analyst's note which applied all the bottom-range estimates). Then identifying and securing permits on another couple of sites latter half of 2021 into 2022, and we could be onto a rocket.
I try not to get too excited except when I'm bored and calculating the value of what COULD be inside Alien's hills.

Have a good weekend all.

I keep looking at those companies that trundled along for ages at a very low SP and then over the period of a year or two just kept expanding, and imagining what it must be like to be in early on one of those.
And I wonder if my average of 1.1 is the starting line.
And then I have to remind myself that UFO has already ten-bagged since 12 months ago.

Nice to have you on-board Dartmoormal. And good luck everyone. Hey, next week might bring news. Or the week after. Of the one after that. Don't mind holding - just means a longer runway before lift-off.

Really good observation Leicester. it has become a little edgy here. Understandably so. We're all in breathless anticipation of results which could go either way. It might be time to set stop losses to prevent catastrophe, but not so's you'd get caught by MM artificially dropping the price. On balance (70/30) I think we'll see positive news so holding and optimistic for 15p+.
Admittedly no science behind that other than last year's N4P RNS track record and the general sentiment of scientifically informed investors.

Ha ha cynicalinvestor. I did the exact same. Threw a few hundred at INTU as it was on its knees in a "well, you never know" moment of madness. I think I pulled £100 out of the wreckage. Much better judgment this time round. Good luck.

Well that was unexpected, wasn't it ! Spent most of the day hoping it was a tree shake for a major buyer.
Ex divi ? Nope. Director sale ? Nope. Cash positive through combination of last summer's placing and recent contract. Since it's the day after UK Gov announces infrastructure bank and continued investment in renewable energy, I can only assume some investors had hoped for more from Rishi yesterday and decided to put their money elsewhere. Nothing appears to have changed to the Eqtec business. Maybe a little bounce up tomorrow and then trundle in the 1.5-1.8 until another commercial RNS. Which should be along relatively soon given the pipeline.

Again - apologies to isalingebruik for earlier confusion, and thanks to whoever reported it so it got deleted.

Am I being a bit dense, latpulldown ? Just checked HEIQ (always look for new opportunities to shortlist and evaluate) and they appear to have a market cap of £250M already. The investor section on their website looks very promising. It does state on there that one of their product lines is expected to grow to $250M (with another growing by another 25% and another growing to an estimated $500M - but without stating their current position). Forty products in the R&D pipeline looks good though !
Anyway, enough cross-ramping from me. Thanks for the heads up latpulldown. Glad the holders are winning here on HMSO.
This is my only victory at the moment (having a tough week) as I got in at 16.8p - just about the only time I ever timed a purchase exactly right. Makes up for all the times I didn't :-)

If we see the SP pop up at CoP each day then might that be a sign of speculative investors/traders anticipating morning RNS and then selling early doors if no news ? I'm probably being naive, but seen similar in AVCT last summer when news was imminent for weeks.

I sincerely hope so, Ollyandpatch. I'm currently cursing my luck that I bought last Monday. At 79p with expectations of an irresistible march towards £1.20. "If I'd just waited a few days" = the cry of probably every investor ever.
I'm sure these are early foothills for MODE, and expect we'll be in a very much better place by the summer which is why I remain holding.

With you completely M135i. I got into EUA in July on the basis of it being a relatively quick turnaround !! Seven months later and the SP is about where I joined. Not gained or lost (actually I did slice some profit at 40p). But I remain optimistic for it finally securing the deal so we can release that tied up money.

Good find, t.rat.
What I find interesting is DP's assertion that they could pivot to hydrogen because the tech allows it but he's clearly more focused on the core business. This is excellent imo because a cat chasing all the mice catches none. Nail down the gasification/energy production to establish EQT as THE player in this sector, and then know that you have the potential to continue growing in a second or third market.
That is why watching the daily fluctuations is the wrong move here (though it's only natural to get frustrated).
Just as a reminder, we've already seen EQT triple in a 6 month period. It's ten-bagged in the last year. And most people here are predicting significant continued upwards movement over the next 6-24 months. Just have to wait.

Not what you want to hear if you're in at 2.3p+ but hopefully useful if you want to make money and can wait.

I'm with you normbeef.
As frustrating as it feels to have my largest holding sitting in this narrow band while watching others fluctuate (and it's human nature to focus on the "Damn - I could have been on THAT one !"), this company represents a terrific potential for growth. We all know from the advisory note that, at the lowest of all measures, the company is undervalued. Which means for those accumulating at the current price, it's going to come very good.
Just a matter of patiently waiting.

Anyone else ever looked at a hot stock and seen the long tail before it started multiplying ? That's where we are right now.
By comparison: GGP on the 2-yr chart. ECR on the 1-yr chart. EUA 2-yr chart.

As I understand it, actually directors are only restricted from buying/selling within a month prior to announcing financial annual or mid-year results. Otherwise it's impossible to "police" if a director buys shares and then the next day a major development occurs by coincidence (eg: receiving takeover offer, or a pandemic).

I think I reached about the same conclusion dadean.
Honestly, no science behind it - seriously who can predict what's going to happen to reach a specific SP value - but my sense was somewhere in the region of 40-50p. Maybe more if two factors: 1/ Hammerson leadership team innovate and take decisive action in one or two areas because I suspect the pandemic will be a seismic event in retail with new challenges to "business-as-usual", and 2/ the return to physical retail consumer experience is on the higher side than expected.

You know, even if it "only" reached 35, I'd take a 40% increase on my money thanks.

On reflection, I'm feeling very confident here. Picked apart the note today which confirms the low side of what's known (by" known" I'm tipping a nod in agreement to HappyHaddock's post earlier).
The price has held, and I think gone up marginally at CoP. In every aspect of the report on UFO operations the analysts have applied the negatives and still reached a conclusion that makes the market cap 15% higher than today. Minimum.
And - crucially - that 80% discount on Hammersley will soon be reduced by the assay results due soon.

As findings percolate during 2021 (and after, of course) that 80% early-stage discount is turned into more certain findings (60% discount, 40% discount, etc), and we'll know if Hammersley is 74mt or 100mt or 150mt or more. Maybe less !

So as things stand right now, unless I'm being a complete imbecile (not a first for me) then UFO should be 15% up. Today.
But if Hammersley turns out to be 100mt (30% more than broker note) and turns out to confirm 60% ore (20% increase on broker note - ie 50% ore plus 20% of that 50% = 60% ore) and the assays reduce the early-stage discount by 20% then we could be looking at a 50-70% increase.

Please can someone shoot me down before I raid the back of the sofa to increase my holding ?

I find this interesting right at the end of the section on Hammersley:
"Our downside valuation of the Hammersley Iron Ore Project is based on an assumption that a 74mt iron ore deposit at a grade of 50% Fe is discovered at the project (37mt contained Fe), similar to lower end of the exploration target for the project. Several junior companies that own iron projects in Western Australia currently trade on an average market capitalisation per attributable tonne of iron of £8/t. To this we apply an 80% discount to reflect the early development stage nature of the project. This gives a downside valuation for the project of £30.2m"

They're using the lowest estimates from their previous indicative range of 74mt - 245mt (which is an absolutely sensible decision, imo) and using the lowest %age ore content in the range (50%, when early surveys at surface are circa 60%).
And then there's the 80% discount because of the early stage.
So it's painting a negative picture which will likely improve.

So what I'm getting from this - and please pick this apart if you have more insight and experience - is that the document from Turner Pope appears to be the absolute downside.

There's up, and then there's UP. One of those three should increase value. All three would be great.
All three within a month would be phenomenal.

Always lovely when we're in agreement, latpulldown.
There have been one or two on here a few weeks ago suggesting it's all going online. I think the points you make reflect my own belief. I'm not a big "shopper" but many people are, and the smarter retailers will balance both routes. Centres will become experiences; a day out where events, activities, and retail combine.
The vaccine (incl future tweaks/boosters), continued (lat flow) testing and improved filtration of air-circ systems (eg: copper-infused virus-killing filters such as those soon to be produced by RMS), all point positively.