Member Info for Pickuzawinnah

Hi all. Seen GGP go flying over the last couple of months and assumed I'd missed the bus. Joined today with my smallest ever holding at the lovely price of 20.75 - only because all my money is tied up elsewhere and I'm waiting for a couple of other things to pop before getting a bit more serious here. Research looks positive - especially like the £6M in the bank; that is a big AIM risk taken care of - and the level of disbelief and frustration on the BB from seasoned/informed posters is very encouraging. Look forward to seeing green over the next few weeks and months.

I know. And I know it's silly, but at the moment I'll enjoy any cause to celebrate. Apart from anything, it echoes the wider sentiment that we might be starting to turn the tide against the pandemic. I expect the SP will bounce around for a bit as various buy/sell orders are executed. But the direction of travel is encouraging.

Literally punched the air in celebration.

Sorry to be lazy - when's the initial Aries hearing ?

All the numbers are going in the right direction - not just for HMSO but for society. This current lockdown is buying time for vaccine rollout to cover the vulnerable who account for 80%+ of the hospitalisations. Further vaccine tweaking and annual boosters may be required but clear signs we're on the way back. Those broker ratings will shift soon enough.

Am I right in understanding that MWG was acquired by Integumen ? And you're saying many months prior to this acquisition (IE: Feb 2020 at the absolute latest) MWG didn't pay a group of salespeople and owed a fair amount of money. Then quite some time later got bought by another firm in which we (most on this board) have shares.
I'm probably being naive - how is this related to GB ?
And if the sales were in decline for years - as you claim - then how would the sales team be owed so much money ? I mean that £340K is the full annual remuneration of 4 or 5 high quality B2B salespeople. Or the annual bonus of maybe 10-15 (depending on a whole LOAD of variables).

Sorry, I'm only seeking to clarify because your points seem to suggest this is all Deepverge and GB's fault. But as far as I can tell he's only really been involved with the MWG story in the last few months.

Oh, and finally Muggins - the last Blue day was Tuesday. Just saying.

Every once in a while I look back across key RNSs to get a sense of a company's direction and pace of progress.
Here's a quick summary for DVRG in the last three months (ignoring the obviously major development of acquiring MWG).

Breathalyser
License of patented breathalyser for Microtox BT COVID-19 breath test and initiation of Phase 3 field trials – datasets anticipated to be complete early 2021. ((So, update due very soon, and the applications for this once the AI datasets are concluded would be tremendous: sports venues, holiday industry, transport hubs, entertainment and events, etc))

Waste Water
Commenced deployment of near-source wastewater contamination test equipment ("Microtox PD") into water treatment plants in Ireland, with first shipments to China and the US expected by end of 2020. ((No EoY update on that yet, unless I missed something, so hopefully progress will be announced soon.))
Working with multiple universities and wastewater utilities since June 2020 on COVID-19 related projects . . . involved in many projects in the U.K., Ireland, Italy, Michigan, US, Shanghai, China and Japan. ((Looks pretty positive to me))

Labskin
New Labskin R&D service 'soft launched' in August already nets £400,000 in completed orders in Q4
Personalised consumer skin microbiome profile service in Beta test. ((Updates to come soon.))
Populated and maintained Covid on skin models so scientists can experiment and study the virus. ((No update yet, but can’t believe this hasn’t been jumped on by household chemicals companies.))

So the news should start filtering through with progress in a few areas.

Overall commercial
Unaudited 2020 revenue increases in excess of 300% to £4.4m
£10 million revenue guidance for 2021 (( with more cross-selling and fewer acquisition distractions we may see guidance increased.))
Several large projects, including two multi-million pound opportunities due for decision in 2021 have the potential to drive higher growth ((note, that’s two from several, btw))
£2.97m cash and debt available at year end (unaudited), £1.47m cash and cash equivalents at 31st December 2020, and £1.5m flexible loan facility available to be drawn. ((IE: No need for further (near-term) cash calls.))

I, like many I'm sure, am frustrated about the announcement of Mrs B's MSYS switcheroo, but actually more annoyed by the over-reaction. An update in the next week or two on ANY of the above is likely to bounce us up significantly.

I'm seeing similar across half of my portfolio today. No RNSs. Could just be a shift in sentiment as there has been murmurs of a market correction. So maybe some are reducing exposure to equities ???
Annoying though !

Not just Yankees, Slappy. It's a really good move for a few reasons:
1/ Talent Acquisition and retention - it's a mechanism for attracting the good people you need, and keeping them for a bit longer if efforts turn to results
2/ it means you can manage fixed costs (payroll) by offering more incentive than base salary
3/ It does act as an extrinsic motivator
4/ you can tie the reward to specific milestones

So this is an excellent move and shows the leadership is thinking about growth. I mean, we knew that were already, but it's an external positive flag to other investors. And damn good for the employees, too !

Absolutely Istie. But what's the point in buying shares on the fully realised assets ? not saying everyone should throw the kitchen sink at UFO today. But setting up a position now is the smart move, and increasing the holding as risk turns to realised assets. Someone on the EUA board was pointing out during its recent retrace, they'd started investing in it at 0.2p and increased their stake up to about 5p. We might have the chance to do something similar.
As ever, it's about risk and reward.

Week after. 25th, wasn't it ?

Yep, it's another day that doesn't make sense. So step back, view the forest not today's tree.

That's two excellent posts in as many days, StarBright. Cue a the lunatic drivel yang comments to your ying.

@jp1959 - thanks for the genuine laughs there. I have about three holdings performing similar stunts with my blood pressure. Maybe I should invest in a Bio-tech specialising in heart medication.

Just to add - market cap of £150M is way too low. If EQT can close and launch a couple of projects to confirm it can deliver its prospective pipeline then we'll wish we'd have loaded up more now.

Yeah, for me the Logik exclusivity is a lovely bonus that popped the price up for a day but then back to 2.1 simply because it's the promise of more deals and those projects may take time to analyse, prioritise, apply for, and win. For me, the deal is more about mid-to-long-term potential. I think what will get the upward momentum is a commercially-focused RNS stating income and projections. It's a good bit of news, definitely. But until projects are underway it doesn't affect the P&L.

I am all-in, btw. My second largest holding. I'm predicting loveliness by end of 2021 and an even better 2022. I trade elsewhere, but invest here.

Happyhaddock - I think you're right, but the converse is also at play here; how much of the risk is holding the price down ? In other words, those of us holding are confident that the RNSs will be positive. Others may be waiting for confirmation of values and volumes before parting with their hard-earned. So, yes, one question is how much of the anticipated good news has been priced in, but we might also see the impact of reduced risk, as others see what we've been bleating on about.

No call for that, comek2. Grow up a bit.

Starbright - my initial reaction reading the start of your post was to think you're deramping. I read on and realise you're making (I think) a good point. Some of these things have been partially priced in. For example, I've added money to my holding because of Hammersley. And it's helpful not to get too carried away by what COULD happen if . . .
We have seen sharp leaps in the last few months mainly based on speculation of silver. But the developments you list would each be a step in de-risking UFO in the eyes of many (assuming they confirm what they expect to find) so gains are more likely to stick.
And that accretion of marginal gains, is a valid point. If UFO posts RNSs that simply state the developments and then deliver as communicated, it will do a lot to reassure investors that this is a proper business led properly by someone with a sense of longer term investor value.

@aandi - sorry for not remembering it was you. Of course. Who else would it be ? :-)
Great work that day, and a humble thanks for your continued research and general drum-beating. And I must have misremembered - I had thought the pipeline included 20 potential projects.

So if it was 13, and given another few months of new opportunities added since the last commercial update and yet to be generated, we may be up to 14 or 15 by now, and maybe 18 by the summer. With a 1-in-4 conversion, that pipeline becomes 4 or maybe 5 signed and committed projects in 2021 a few lost/derailed, and a few decisions postponed to 2022 (I am using 1 in 4 simply as a very broad way to manage expectations. I work in B2B sales and no-one ever closes everything. Even a 50% success rate is insane). So my prediction would still be in the high-5/low 6 area, and a lot more solid than today.
And if Wood comes good then upside !