Member Info for pickedpeck

I agree there should be a Chinese wall, but they often have bricks missing particularly on AIM.

FTC7 - they may have 'approximate' knowledge of date, equity volume, and potentially be involved in negotiating the strike price.

Tenders are likely to have a time limited validity, when I was doing large engineering projects we would give 90 days as a standard reply in the tender process or you'd have to revisit both the scope and pricing. It would be very exceptional to give 180 days, too many moving parts to hold a price or bill of materials that long.
That likely means they believe 'finalised in Q3' won't be the 30th of September.

If it is the house broker that has been helping keep the price down, then I wonder when they will flip into accumulate mode. They will have inside knowledge we won't be privvy to on the timing of finance. The current price smells fishy, but not because it is threatening to go lower ever.

Even if post finance it 'only' goes back to 10p, that's a 50% plus gain from today. That may not be most long term holders end game, but even for traders that's a healthy short term mark up. We know the equity dilution is coming, but even with 3Bn shares in issue 10p is only a £300m mkt cap, a fraction of the NPVs as nickel rises. £500m would be more reasonable, depending on the equity portion that would be 14-17p ish.

I don't have free cash at the moment, if I did then I would buy more right now. Nothing is certain except death and taxes, but this is getting pretty close to a sure profit.

One HZM mine = one Giga factory of nickel demand.

Bobby - there seems to be some confusion as only some of the numbers drawn were the correct ones. I have appealed for a redraw, and whilst I am waiting for the VAR decision on that I shall contact HZM to see if they are interested in the same split for the initial £3.90 the lotto have sent me. Alternatively I am considering selling two HZM shares in order to enter two attempts in the Saturday draw.

£66m Euro millions jackpot tonight. Just bought four tickets for a tenner, when I win I am gong to put £50m up for HZM to make raising the rest of the debt easier, and fritter away the rest trusting that my HZM dividends will kick in about the time I need to have the super yacht in for its first service.

Anyone else got plans for the weekend?

While I am waiting for the lotto money to arrive I am keeping myself busy fitting a kitchen into one of my flats Retiredish in January, busier now than I have ever been, not really had time to think much about sleep.

Twenty minutes before the time stamp that was the ask price, a trade that size would be negotiated, given the price moved up around that time it seems more likely to be a buy than a sell.

Either way seems like some buying momentun building this last few trading days.

TDT - I'll be 83 in 2050 and probably not care over much. Any predictions out that far are wild assed guesses anyway!

I am much more interested in what happens over the next five years, as in the longer term massive additional capacity could be brought online to meet the long term needs, by which point Horizonte will be just another couple of mines in a Teck / BHP / Anglo American / Big Miner Inc estate.

The cash cow period for Horizonte will be 5 - 10 years from now if they manage to stay independent and bring both mines fully online by then.

Basing some calculations on the Tesla Berlin facility...

Initial production capacity 100GWh p.a. Rising to 200 - 250 over time.

One Tesla Model S has a 100KWh battery containing around 60Kg of Nickel.

100GWh is 1m 100KWh batteries, translating to 60mKg or 60,000 tons of Nickel p.a. I'd round up a little to 75,000 tons for wastage in manufacturing.

I saw an article linked here that there are around 30 Gigafactories planned for Europe. If they are all 100GWh facilities the demand for Nickel just from them will 30 x 75,000 tons, or 2.25m Tons annually.

All figures are obviously rough, some factories may be bigger or smaller, and battery make up may vary somewhat. Manufacturing may be less wasteful and some recycling will contribute eventually, but the order of magnitude is correct.

That would be Europe alone consuming 75%+ of global nickel production just for batteries.

Bearing in mind the demand for Stainless steel is also still rising and currently accounts for that much Ni and more, plus US and China likely to want similar or even more Nickel then competition for this scarce resource may become very fierce.

Also it struck me that Horizonte's full production for Araguaia and Vermelho would supply just one 100GWh Gigafactory.

Blimey.

Soundbuy going zzzzz.... Zzzzzz...
:)

Seriously not much to talk about. Nickel still going up with demand still spiralling and emerging protectionist behaviour by big producing countries driving it, business case getting better, not much action likely on Araguaia until finance which is now expected sometime between one week and three months, possibility of a bid always lurking. Vermelho DFSnews could leap out unexpectedly.

Apart from speculation about the unrisked value at Peel Hunt's £500m what else is there to talk about?

Just as a real contrarian thought, imagine finance does not get done, what then.
The obvious answer is sale of one or both assets. What cash valuation would be put on Araguaia, a tier 1 nickel mine project with an NPV of around $2Bn?
Wouod the company sell Vermelho to help finance Araguaia? When they bought it off Vale for peanuts nickel was less than half the price it is today, and the mine not economic as a result. Now it has a huge NPV and the asset value should have risen accordingly.
Even if they sold both assets for 10% of NPV that would be around 3x today's share price. The current mcap is about 3% of the combined project NPVs, stripping out the cash it drops to about 2%.

So even if the company can't get the current finance deal done, the down side for shareholders is hard to see from this price point.

Apologies for grammar, editing on a phone with hay fever (me, not the phone) is not ideal.

So...
A - lowest quartile cost peoducer
B - Capex $440m vs NAV iro $2Bn
C - JM is credible, the team he has hired have long CVs of delivered major programs, Bod all experienced and with representation from Teck in the form of Sepanta Dorri
D - Teck, Glen ore, Canaccord and by proxy Orion Mon Finance.

I would add
E - World class ESG credentials for a green commodity.

The market is not rational. The base proposition of raising $450m by a $150m mkt cap company is the obvious sticking point. If the cash plus assets are valued at $150m now what are you going to offer as security? Rationally that's a tough initi pill to swallow and is likely leading to some hard negotiated terms. The potential multiple returns are just too tempting, the market too compelling, and the amount of money in circulation too high for it not to happen.

So here we are, shareholders and others in doubt from delays to what is a rationally difficult finance proposition being delayed. A contrarian would buy at this point, accumulating when others are afraid.

Speaking as an ex-exec that was often asked why I didn't always buy shares in the company at every opportunity, the honest answer was most of the time I couldn't afford to. Not every AIM C level employee is loaded to the gills with spare cash, it's amazing how fast a six figure salary goes, especially when half goes straight to HMRC and you're young enough to have a big mortgage. I know it's a first World problem, but I've known executives, especially younger ones, in extraordinary debt as they have a perceived lifestyle to fund, ridiculous as that may seem.
So the simple answer as to why JM may not have loaded up with millions of quids worth of shares is he might not have the cash to do so.

Sitting on hands, studiously ignoring the pressure to trade. When they train you in interrogation resistance techniques it's stare at the floor and sit on your hands and don't engage with the interrogators in any way. As the pressure rises then it gets harder to resist, trading that is.
So, I've been gardening, mending the motorbike, DIY, and anything else to stop me waiting for this particular kettle to boil, as boil it will.

The other way of distracting myself is thinking about what will be the expected RNS this time next year, and the year after. Sometimes the days to day needs to be a direction of travel towards the bigger picture.

Wasa - They need to complete the revised DFS (after the Vale 2005 one) before it is really investable. I am hoping that's a quick process as it shouldn't involve much if any drilling or lab work, but should centre on plant design and operating model.
I think they may fund the Vermelho DFS with the Araguaia equity raise though, which may add maybe $10-20m to the total equity raised.

It looks for all the world like we are being held at 7p, whether that is the equity raise price remains to be seen but in some ways it would make sense if it was, even if it would pee off those buying in the recent raise. It could also be a manipulation of VWAP to compensate for the time above 8, ie get the VWAP to 7.5.
Regarding valuations AIM is prone to having a small number of bubble stocks with wholly unrealistic prices. Those prices are driven by herd mentality and positive news reinforcement rather than economics. We are a long way past the hype on drilling stage and HZM will behave much more like a main market producer than an AIM hype rocket, valued on the basis of PEG and NAV rather than sentiment. You can take that as good or bad, but once derisked the future PE looks rosy enough to attract serious institutional investment. At the stage we are at those investors are the ones that are going to move the needle.
The other option still on the table that can take us back into the hype zone is an offer / sale process. Glencoe and Teck hold pole position there, but would they get all of those PIs on board to close the deal before a distracting outside bid came in?

Quietest day volume wise for ages. Last June was pretty dire volume wise too, maybe people really do sell in May and go away!
More likely positions are now all 'hold' until we see what happens with finance. Those that are going to buy in are in already, and not many dare leave in case finance lands the day after they do.

Tense innit.

Well I chucked a spare £40k in this week, obviously had zero effect on the price ??. Interestingly I had to break the buys up as all attempts at larger buys went n/t. Trade volumes are also seem very low, way below average, so this isn't some large scale sell off. I still think it could be a larger PI or two dropping a few million, enough to lower the price. I can't see any of the buyers from the recent offer taking a loss now, and the other large holder seem barely to trade either way. There are more PIs than just those that post here obvs given the number of broker holdings.
I agree it is weird having so few buyers ahead of the finance news, it's almost like everyone expects to be able to get in at this price after finance is announced, fomo has definitely not started. I think the morning the finance RNS lands the MMs will mark this up 40% by the opening, anyone selling after finance would need to be certified so stock should be in desperately short supply.

I was thinking the same way, but have been lucky elsewhere and have added more over the last fortnight. Now got just about half what you have wasa.
There is not a lot more to say or do here other than wait for what should be the next significant RNS.