Member Info for pickedpeck

Fairly sure I read in the Vale FS that it was more like a few thousand holes, 150,000m of drills.

In 2016 Horizonte had 113,000 Hectares or around 300,000 acres for the imperialists, that was pre Vermelho. Perhaps surprisingly the whole of Vermelho (acquired in 2017) is just 2,000 hectares, so you can imagine the potential of the rest. The total is similar in size to a smallish English County.

JM has repeatedly said this is a nickel District, not just a nickel mine. Over a long timescale this will become a globally significant nickel resource.

Wasa,

While we are all focused on LME, the Shanghai exchange price for Nickel briquettes suitable for cathode use has been well above $20k for weeks. This is the planned Vermelho output, we should probably already be using $21.5k in the Vermelho NPV calculator. I suppose it depends on the destination for the output, but cathode materials are already commanding a hefty premium

https://price.metal.com/mobile/Ni/spot

The hwol ftse took a hot today, hsbc actually didn't dare too badly relatively.

Oh I don't know, 5p divi, HSBA has already risen more than that (13p at the moment in fact) since the original post.

10 days since the original post and contrary to the doldrums comment we seem to have a fair wind, well breeze at least... 420-425 next weekend?

Mind you if it does get a wriggle on I won't be complaining...

Broken consensus seems to be in the mid 400s. Next round of updates will nudge that towards 500s. Its too much of a behemoth to move quickly, there is a whole industry around rating HSBC.

ii also bought The Share Centre (Share.com) , a lot moved over then, mine included.

I'm predicting a return of about 1% / 4p a week for the next year on average. This time next year (Rodney) 600p, Feb as a check point milestone of 500p and full restoration of dividends, so a 12 month 50% gain.

Anyone strongly disagree?

I think it is interesting that even an involved miner like BHP is probably still massively underestimating the demand spike for Nickel. So far increasing demand has far outstripped this rate of change.
This article clearly shows that a major like BHP is just starting to accept the change is real and happening, the article says that until 2019 they were trying to dispose of nickel assets! Never underestimate the bureaucratic strategy momentum of huge companies, it takes literally years to change strategic direction, a super tanker is positively nimble by comparison.

This article clearly shows that BHP have turned the wheel pretty hard, but that they are still a long way from understanding how much nickel will be needed or where it will come from.

Well..

https://www.mining.com/bhp-to-expand-nickel-operations-to-meet-soaring-demand/

Just bought back in on the results having last sold at 450, frankly can't believe I got a price below Fridays close. This seems a crazy price given the performance and reinstatement of the dividend.

I'd expect at least a 20% gain over the next quarter, but can't see it falling through this level unless some unforeseen calamity hits them.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/nickel

Nice summary of the current state of play.

ST - As the biggest and as far as I am aware only dedicated liar we have had here I find your tone comic rather than insulting.

Source was Jeremy Martin in thr last BRR Media interview. If you were actually at all interested in HZM you'd have watched it.

Hazbeen,
Cornerstone price might include VWAP as a factor but also potentially might not. Right now I would rather it didn't, justification would be the ability to acquire volume at scale not possible on the open market.

The company also said it would do an open offer too, presumably there will be a preset price for that which will not be dependent on VWAP.

Lawrence, appreciate the CAPS excitement, but Araguaia is the Hors d'oeuvre before the Vermelho main course. And for dessert the company owns an additional nickel asset in Serra Do Tapa which is around the same resource scale as Araguaia. Full production from Araguaia and Vermelho is currently forecast to be around 60,000 tons of nickel annually, but as they share a 4m ton resource base that could be significantly increased with additional production lines, particularly at Vermelho.

If successful the company will not develop a nickel mine, but a whole new glabbally important nickel district. The geopolitical importance of a resource accessible by the US and Europe and not tied up by the Chinese like Indonesia and Australia is being massively underplayed.

HZM doesn't need ramping or deramping here. This looks set to be a globally important resource company within the next 5 years, and the big miners and finance houses are absolutely aware if that. Us PIs are on the coat tails of of a development program that could potentially take HZM from AIM explorer to a FTSE100 miner with annual revenues measured in the billions.

A1 & A2 + V1 = 60,000t P. A., SdT expansion and V2 + expansion additional 40,000 t P. A. (reality check : Vale planned 46,000t P. A. From Vermelho alone from their more aggressive FS with a 40 year mine life! http://www.vale.com/china/EN/old-investors/information-market/press-releases/Pages/a-cvrd-iniciara-o-desenvolvimento-do-niquel-do-vermelho.aspx )

100,000 t P. A. Production by 2030 at $25,000 per ton is $2.5Bn revenue, about $1.5Bn would be gross profit after production costs. That's a cash factory farm let alone cow... $1Bn profit after tax, pe 10 or so, $10Bn market valuation still with upside.

Of course the mining majors know this, and at some point will pounce and buy us out. But the further the company gets, the high the intrinsic value will become. Finance is just the next hurdle on this longer journey, but it might pay to think a little bigger after some of the recent BS that had been circulating here.

4% drop on 17 trades so far this morning, none of them big. Conspiracy theorists should be having a field day.

There feels something entirely artificial about the share price at the moment, it doesn't seem based on market forces.

Having listened to Saint-Tropez and Contrarian I sold my 9.5m shares for whatever I could get in the firm belief that I will be able to buy them back at half the price. I even used the money raised to put a big short on, and now with today's turn in the share price the only ones going to profit are spreadex as my margin call approaches.

Not really obviously.

The recent drop has been on no significant volume, a reversal is equally likely on similarly minimal volume. The general market in mining minors across AIM was spooked by the rising covid cases and the threat of the 'real' 2nd wave and a return to the continuity pandemic. The latest covid data looks a lot more positive, we are about to see a boom I think.

I've never borrowed to buy shares, I could but just can't bring myself to do it. I also have never bought a brand new car, flown first class (on my own mo ey), or bought Cristal champagne. I'm naturally cautious with money as I clearly remember what it was like to have none at all and be in debt.

What that caution really means is being able to make my own grown up decisions with my money and to bear whatever consequences come from that later. I really detest people that post opinion that may somehow influence others for reasons of spite or greed, or both. I prefer to debate facts and their influence or otherwise on the share price we have invested in. Some 'cee you next tuesday' pompously spouting how right they were about x just makes them a Tuesday person in my book.

12 months ago it was 3.4p a share, just over twelve months before that it was 1.7p.

Anyone want a bet that it will be 13p twelve months from now, and 26p twelve months after that?

I agree there should be a Chinese wall, but they often have bricks missing particularly on AIM.