Member Info for Pianista

Never had a multi-bagger, which I think reflects that fact that I'm fairly risk averse. I did lose £25k on Flybe though - and no tax relief because everything is in an ISA, which I have patiently built up over the past 20 years.

Overall, my portfolio has been holding up fairly well despite Covid, the main exception being TRAK, on which I'm down about 70% (ouch!). I take comfort from the fact that even Microlise, who should know better, are down 40% on their investment. I still think though that this could turn into a multi-bagger. In any event, I'm not selling at current prices.

I think we can all agree that Saga lost its way, but to its credit it has tried to turn things around, with its “strategic reset”, a change of management and a transformed cruise business. Were it not for Covid, whose adverse effect has not been unique to Saga, the company would therefore be set fair.

The question is, should the SP still be languishing at as much as over 90% down from its all-time high?

I don’t think so: the recent update confirms that Saga is more than just keeping its head above water (a good position to be in for a cruise business!), so it will survive, and it will bounce back. This is no Thomas Cook. It's well worth a punt at 16p.

"An update for guests booked on Spirit of Adventure’s inaugural cruise
You may have seen that our update to the city earlier this week included an announcement that we are taking delivery of our new ship, Spirit of Adventure, by the end of October.

I know that all of our guests who are booked to travel on our beautiful new ship have been patiently waiting for some news regarding the inaugural cruise. I can confirm we will be calling you next week to confirm the new date and itinerary.

I appreciate those of you who are already booked to travel on other dates this year on Spirit of Adventure will have some questions but please rest assured that we will be contacting you over the coming weeks in date order to ensure that you are kept fully updated as to our plans as we return to service this Autumn.

Please take care and, most importantly, stay safe.

Nigel Blanks

Managing Director, Saga Cruises"

When I said the virus is "weakening", I was referring to its evolving into a less dangerous form, not the numbers being infected. The infection rate may well go up, but the illness will be less serious and easier to manage (plus medics are becoming more experienced in managing it).

The virus is weakening all the time, as viruses tend to do, so the second wave will be more like a ripple.

Article continues:

Saga Cruises can also play to its strengths of no-fly, ex-UK sailings says Blanks: “Sailing from Dover and Southampton will absolutely be an advantage in the new environment and this is definitely reflected in those forward bookings.
“We are also exploring a number of options for when we are able to resume operations which includes looking at cruising around Britain with and without ports of call.”
He added: “To give guests further confidence Saga has revised its travel insurance so treatment abroad for Covid-19 and repatriation to the UK will be included as standard on all Saga travel insurance policies from June. Adding Covid-19 cover is an important part of giving people the confidence to start travelling as we emerge from the pandemic.”
Looking ahead, Blanks says there will be changes in the way Saga Cruises operates and social distancing will “definitely be possible”.
“We are very fortunate that, although we have small ships by modern cruise ship sizes, the twin vessels are big on the inside with generous public spaces, a high passenger-to-space ratio and lots of outdoor space. We feel confident we can socially distance on board.
“There will also be a shift towards a digital-first approach in the post-Covid world. Notices, such as daily programmes, will be displayed digitally around the ship rather than on paper.”
Dining is also under scrutiny and Blanks said: “We are considering two-seating dining and two entertainment performances and, for the foreseeable future, we will no longer offer a buffet service – but we much prefer offering a full waiter service, after all, dining is an important part of the Saga Cruises’ experience.”

Exclusive: Non-stop UK cruises could be first on British waters after the pandemic

Slowly but surely, there is a rising tide of confidence returning to Saga Cruises managing director Nigel Blanks’ home office, where he has been working since lockdown.
Blanks has just agreed to take late delivery of the cruise line’s second new ship, Spirit of Adventure, in early autumn, after building was delayed at Meyer Werft shipyard, in Papenburg, Germany, due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
It follows the Spirit of Discovery, launched in 2019 and Saga Cruises’ first new-built ship, into the fleet.
But of course, the coronavirus outbreak has played havoc with dates. Blanks told Telegraph Travel: “The ship’s christening at Portsmouth on August 21 had to be postponed and guests booked on the inaugural cruise were notified the date would be amended to ‘later in the year’.
“That date is now dependent on when the Foreign and Commonwealth Office changes its advice on travel and when we feel it’s the right time to safely return to service for our guests and crew, who are our priority.
“The situation is changing by the day but I can confirm we will be keeping the celebration at the Port of Portsmouth and it will be spectacular. It seems odd that I have not seen Spirit of Adventure coming to life since last year. I have never spent so much time away from my team – the ships and the crew. I miss that interaction along with the ability to travel.”
Spirit of Adventure will replace 700-passenger Saga Sapphire, which was sold this month, and Blanks is confident Spirit of Discovery will be ready to sail once restrictions are lifted. He previously told Telegraph Travel that it would take on three to four weeks to get up and running again when the Government gives them the green light.
He said: “There were no Covid-19 cases on Saga Cruises’ ships when operations ceased on March 13 and Spirit of Discovery remains Covid-free. She stands ready to resume operations as soon as it is safe to do so. We are in daily contact and have a skeleton crew of 40 on board.”
Blanks, who joined Saga HQ, in Folkestone, Kent, after A-levels in 1985, says Saga Cruises’ pause in operations until September 1, 2020, will be reviewed in July as he “closely monitors the situation” but he has further good news on cruise sales.
He said: “Sales for 2020/21 are very strong and retention of guests from cancelled cruises seems to get stronger and stronger. For July departures just over 70 per cent of guests were retained and for August departures more than 75 per cent.
“At the end of February, across the entire cruise business, we had already achieved 80 per cent of our target. We are also planning to launch our 2022 season in the first week of September, which is six months earlier than usual.”

Cheer up Static! Last year, Saga had EPS of 8.9p (the write downs of goodwill are not relevant).

This year, even if we assume EPS of only 5p, this implies a PE ratio of less than 4.

Re top management, something WAS definitely wrong, but fingers crossed that’s been sorted.

...and floating hotels too, presumably.

An announcement from Saga about restarting cruises can't be far behind...just what these shares need.

In the end, volume was 8m, compared to daily average of 6m.

Can’t get too worked up about daily SP movements, but it was strange how the it died in the final seconds of trading. May have been an aberration; let’s see tomorrow.

The ball’s now in the government’s court: the relaxation of social distancing, quarantine etc, leading to an announcement from the company that they will be resuming cruising this year, is what the SP really needs right now.

"Saga PLC (LON:SAGA) has a number of strategic options that will help it to “bounce back” from the downturn in travel caused by the coronavirus pandemic, according to analysts at Peel Hunt.
In a note on Monday, the broker retained its ‘hold’ rating and 50p target price on the over-50s focused travel and insurance firm, reflecting what they said was an “undervalued business with an uncertain outlook”.
“We believe the company has a number of strategic options, of which we prefer a divestment of the insurance underwriter. Also, the Travel business is ready to bounce back as soon as restrictions are lifted, the timing of which will also influence any strategic decisions”, Peel Hunt said"

Shares bought 2.5m, sold 1.5m, total 4m so far today. Average volume 6m, so not that low.

There weren’t many questions, I think because the detailed trading update had already answered them.

The main question is the one hanging over almost all businesses, namely the uncertainty over the prognosis for Covid-19 and the economy as a whole. However, the SP is now highly geared to any good news on this front.

What came across, at least, was that they are genuinely impressed by the new CEO, and that they are champing at the bit to get back on the high seas.

It's a strong buy on the basis that the SP has been depressed by uncertainty, which the update has lifted.

That's what it says.

But they could presumably make early repayment of principal (by refinancing etc) if they wanted to restart dividends.

Personally, if the SP goes from its current level of around 20p back to 100p, I'm not going to be too bothered about dividends.

The Insurance business has been resilient.

The Group's new mid-sized ships are ideally placed to offer 'safe sailing' and all these measures will be in place by the end of August. The latest indication for the Spirit of Adventure is that she will be delivered by the end of October.

Should get the SP moving back up again after recent drift.

dc2 - As a former client, she must be well-versed in TRAK's business, and should therefore be able to hit the ground running. Also, bearing in mind the long history of their relationship, they presumably all get on with each other, which is comforting given the slight cloud hanging over recent management departures.

Overall, a positive move, I feel.

Nosugar - she comes across very well in this, and other articles I've seen. I wonder if she was Peter Mansfield's find.

I think it depends on how the aircon is set up or operated. There is a big difference, in terms of virus transmission, between recirculating air on the one hand, and expelling stale air and drawing in fresh air from outside on the other. I'm sure Saga are on top of this.

So you're saying that social distancing in an office is pointless too because of the aircon system??