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If today’s RNS doesn’t galvanise Microlise into action, nothing will. They’ve always maintained that the shares are worth more than the 20 odd pence they paid, so why not offer 20p for the remaining shares? By cutting out unnecessary overheads, like board salaries, Trak’s business would instantly contribute more than £1 million per annum to ML’s profits, so it wouldn’t take long for them to recoup their investment. The problem is, ML appear to be very indecisive when it comes to acquisitions, probably more so at the moment given their own problems, plus their own depressed share price limits their ability to do a share-for-share deal.

Let’s see what Allenby have to say following today’s RNS. They always seem to put a positive spin on things. Nevertheless, we can expect quite a sharp downward revision this time to their estimate of fair value.

"If there was ever a time for the company to say something positive, it is now..."

Absolutely. Presumably the market makers believe that bad news is on the way. The question is, is that based on inside information to which they were privy, while hapless PI's remained in the dark? We need to know.

ML won't be happy, but they're currently distracted by their own problems, so any intervention remains unlikely.

Allenby is not just the company’s broker, they’re also the NOMAD. As recently as 23.9.24, Allenby were saying that the proposed contract still exists. They would not have said this without having seen sufficient evidence.

If by some sleight of hand they’d been misled, I’m sure they would have no alternative but to resign as NOMAD, which would be devastating. Pulling the wool over Raza’s eyes would also be extremely serious (assuming he wasn’t complicit!).

So I think that “the contract” must still be in play.

At least we now have someone at the helm whose interests are strongly aligned with the company's (new COO Ian Hillman holds nearly 5m shares, just over 5%).

Relative to an already depressed share price, yes.

Yes, I thought the same, I.e. that the extension of the JS contract bodes well for “the contract”.

The only mention of Trak is indirectly through “share of loss of associate 260k”, which has had the effect of cutting down profit before tax by one half.

They can’t turn a blind eye to that in their presentation, surely? If it were the other way round they would no doubt be singing its praises.

An expression of confidence in Trak at least would be nice. (When ML floated, they claimed that their investment in Trak was stated at fair value, when its share price was around mid teens).

ML half year presentation scheduled for 24/9, when there ought to be more than a mere passing comment on Trak, given that ML's investment is down by 2/3rds.

"Expect or hope - which is it?" (KBYK, re the Contract)

"Confident", according to Allenby. Hence their generally upbeat assessment? Though no estimate of fair value given this time (latest estimate was 38p I believe).

If the Contract is still not signed, they obviously can’t say too much about it in the impending update, just that “discussions are still ongoing”.

But as long as it does get signed, eg in August, that would be fine. Whatever happens to the SP in the meantime – probably very little, except if there is particularly good or bad news on insurance - will be overshadowed by the eventual doubling/trebling. The problem is that we’ll have to endure even more nail-biting until that moment.

No real surprises. For example, they’d said PBT £35M – £40 M, and it’s come out at £39M. Following the recent drift down of the SP, I think the market expected much worse, so the SP could even be set for recovery over the next few months.

We feel your pain KBYK.

I don't think this is "the contract", but the news makes me feel more confident that the contract will be landed, possibly quite soon.

Thanks. My timing was perfect for a change.

SP has made a good start today, but it will take a decent update (or rumours of one) for it to get back into the low teens.

Currently quoting 8.75p to buy 50k.

KBYK - you guessed right. 7.5p was too good to resist.

Brought my average down to 21p, similar to ML's, so I'm in good company!

It's still a long way to go to recoup our losses, but the journey should get off to a good start today...

“(I do wonder whether JFW has provided some personal guarantees for the loan)”

If he has, it would need to be disclosed in the accounts, which it hasn’t. So I agree that HSBC must have good reason to be relaxed. Also the faith shown by ML should provide some comfort (as it does for us PIs).

A good discussion. (I’ve been out of it due to moving house, which is stressful enough without also being a long-term Trak shareholder!)

My thoughts are that from a long-suffering shareholder’s point of view, we’re obviously always looking for real news, real progress, but in defence of the company the Lookers “news” does have a valid purpose in terms of marketing, i.e. getting and keeping Trak’s name out there. In this context, 4 years is a decent interval of time to wait before repeating a message for the benefit of a new set of potential customers.

JW won’t be able to say this in his reply, of course, so I’m saying it for him! (I’m assuming there really is nothing new here.)

Finally, it may have been Lookers who were the primary movers here, for the same reasons (i.e. marketing), and Trak have just gone along with it.

There'll have to be an RNS either way.

I agree. You can fool PIs, but surely you can't fool a multitude of "insiders".