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However, all outstanding contracts must have been, or be very close to, being renewed by now, and they must have good visibility for the current year, so perhaps it’ll be next week?
It’s badly needed because, judging by the SP, there are evidently (understandable) doubts in the market that the alleged massive benefits of the restructuring will actually be realised in 23/24. A good start to removing those doubts would be to at least hit the expected adjusted PBT of £300k for the current year. If they do, and they go on to issue a bullish outlook statement, the SP should start to move up again, but it's unlikely to finally take off until after the trading update in September confirms the progress actually being made in 23/24.
Incidentally, ML need TRAK to come good as much as we do, judging by its currently depressed SP. Thus if TRAK’s 23/24 earnings do come in at the expected £2.3m, it will give a much-needed boost to ML’s earnings, which will include 20% of Trak’s, ie £0.5m. This is not an insignificant contribution: ML’s own earnings are only around the £2.3m mark, so it'd be enough to get its own SP moving again.
£1? I'm getting 116p to sell, not that that is anything to celebrate!
I agree about the update, but I think the sky high PE is predicated on the prospect of spectacular growth through M&A, which shows no signs of being realised, even 18 months after the IPO.
ports – I certainly agree that we shouldn’t ignore the macro picture – especially with Ukraine entering a new, potentially much more dangerous, phase - but that applies to ALL shares at the moment. However, stock markets seem oblivious to the macroeconomic risks….but for how much longer?
tommo - the company appears to agree with you: in December, following the interminable share suspension, the Performance Share Plan was extended to “create additional time for the continued strong trading by the Group and its positive outlook to be recognised in a fair market price”. 40p by the end of 2023 is what is required to give employees maximum awards.
ports - you must have missed the exercise by Lloyd of his 26.5m share options on 10.1.23 when the SP was around 28p. He now owns 12.79%, worth around £23m. The question is: what, if anything, will he do next?
...is due at any moment.
As a potential c30% holder, and its only significant investment since flotation, one would expect this to include an update on Trak.
Fortunately for ML, the (partial) revival in Trak's SP has (coincidentally?) happened just in time to relieve it of the worst of its embarrassment!
"For me, the long awaited RNS is one with the title: Recommended Cash Offer"
LOL, I was thinking contract renewals. Even with those, and the restructuring, the SP should (barring further banana skins) finally fly this year. Just as well, because we could wait forever a bid, however compelling the logic.
The "market" seems to be anticipating the long-awaited RNS. Imagine the reaction if/when if does land - SP back to the low 20s probably. But this time, with any luck, it won't drop back down again, but move on up into the 30s.
With nationwide service businesses, you will tend to get more negative reviews on social media than positive ones. In Halfords' case, if it makes them pull their socks up, it'll be a good thing.
All I ever hear from friends, though, is how impressed they've been with Halfords. And last weekend, when I went to my local branch, customers (who generally don't check social media posts first) were queueing right to the back of the store.
Yes, same to you and the other "Trakies" - especially "Happy New Year" (thanks to Trak’s turnaround?).
But nothing much will happen to the SP till we get some news, notably confirmation (or otherwise!) of the outstanding contract renewals.
News of director purchases would also be helpful. If the 2023/24 transformation is nailed on, why wouldn’t they?
In the meantime, ML’s trading update in a month or so might be interesting - if/when commenting on M&A, in order not to lose credibility Raza will need to explain what on earth is going on with his only deal since flotation, and what he plans to do about it!
Like all PIs on this board, I'd rather go into the weekend on a high, but the SP has been moved today by just a handful of small trades by people who know no more than us, so I wouldn't attach too much significance to it.
Maybe Raza's not too troubled by the latest drop either - he's no stranger to extreme SP volatility accentuated by ultra-thin trading (just look at ML).
Though in a way it would be good if he were troubled by it, and came to the conclusion that being a more-or-less passive investor will just see his c£2.5m equity investment drain away... he's not a natural dealmaker by the look of it, and may just need this latest drop to galvanise him into action.