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Ironic yes, but not totally irrational if you think about it.
When the ships were empty, it was never imagined that that situation would last for more than a few months, and the SP was buoyed by (misplaced) optimism about a quick return to normality.
Now, the ships are indeed packed, but this is due to pent-up demand, and by definition pent-up demand does not last forever. What really matters to investors is the prospects for the next year or two, where fears of a recession have, for the time being, taken over from the ever-present threat of Covid and the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile CCL’s debt has increased massively just as interest rates are on the rise…
As with the 30% drop after the recent results, the shares were marked down (unfairly) by the market makers from the word go, following which the herd instinct - to which HFD seems particularly prone - kicked in.
"Lease interest payments last year were £9m... how much is it going to go up by?"
Yes, but the lease interest is only a small part of the lease expense - there's also £69.9m depreciation of the "right of use" assets to take into account.
However, I'm not sure what the "leasing pressures" are that Panmure are on about (I haven't seen their note). Maybe some of the lease payments are adjusted upwards for RPI?
Mind you, it's not all good news. Talk of a 7% base rate is worrying - but should concentrate the minds of the BOD.
Brokers' targets have always been a joke, even during the relatively stable geopolitical environment pre pandemic. In the present ultra-volatile environment, what on Earth do Panmure know about the state of the world in 12 months' time that we don't? It would be more honest of them to say "we haven't a clue".
Probably just overlooked before. What is good news though is the revival in Microlise's SP, up c20% in the last week or so.
18.7p trade at 13.31, there's no stopping it ATM.
The headline sounds good, hence today’s initial jump, but when you read the detail, the bookings only relate to a single day, and for only part of the group. Furthermore, the comparison is with a low point, so they’re not comparing apples with apples.
So not bad news, but not as good as they are ramping it to be, and the jury is still out on the long term trajectory of the SP.
No one really knows what will happen over the next year or two. We’re still in the pent-up demand phase, and it’s difficult to assess where demand will settle once that works through. But, in addition, recession is looming: CCL have not been immune before, eg in 2009, and I’m not sure it’ll be any different this time round. With all the uncertainties, it’s not surprising the SP is not yet racing ahead. Expect continued SP volatility.
At precisely the same time as Trak's SP has come alive (up 20%+ over the week), so has Microlise's (up 15%). Coincidence? Or significant?
The US market already has already reacted - it actually dropped on Friday when the announcement was made. Presumably because it's still not a free-for-all, eg even the fully vaccinated still have to test before cruises of more than 5 days.