Member Info for Pianista

Crucial TU in just a couple of weeks, hopefully without any repetition of reservations expressed in the last one (re Ukraine and reduced capacity in the insurance market).

Unhooked - I don't think that applies to DX management! On the contrary, I imagine the lights will be burning into the night at DX HQ this weekend.

The market obviously sees DX as the main beneficiary should Tuffnell's IDW clients need to look elsewhere.

It had net cash, not debt, last time I looked. The only "debt" it has is that created by capitalising future lease payments, which is not affected by interest rate increases.

So as regards the drift, the market has a very short memory, that's all. Bullish updates are quickly forgotten, though HFD hasn't lost all its gains since the last one. The market needs constant reminders - though it may have to wait till the next trading update.

26% increase in prices sounds impressive, but the RPI has increased by around 35% over the same period!

Batfasted - I still don't know whether it's true. I was expecting MagicFinance to comment. Call me old-fashioned, but when claims of this sort are made, I like to know the source of the information.

I agree Hexam. They made EBITDA of zilch, and after ITDA a group loss of €558m and EPS of minus €2.15. Hardly “looking good” - they’ll need a damn good second half.

Hexam - “€150m…is the interest they have to pay this year on loans”.

However, the effect on earnings, which is what really matters, will be the total interest expense for the year, which will include the €170m of interest on lease liabilities, giving a total of €320m.

“I understand that Kernow Asset Management Limited presently holds 1.54% of its shares a reduction from 3.02% when it bought back in in late 2022.“

So they crossed the 3% threshold without an RNS?

Ports – you say you see a lot more DPD vans …..but that’s to be expected, isn’t it? DPD is a much, much bigger company than DX. However, as a minnow, Express has plenty of scope to increase its market share in a growing market, which should boost its profit margin through operational leverage (mind you, its operating profit is already fast approaching £18m, i.e. a respectable 10% operating margin on close to £180m turnover).

So I feel quite comfortable about the investment in depots and parcel handling equipment, which should also produce plenty of efficiency and productivity gains. Bottom line is that we still have some way to go before organic growth runs out of steam.

Clearly, we’ll never see the same SP growth as when the company went from basket case to recovery. But, relative to its earnings growth prospects and healthy cash position, the SP is definitely underperforming at the moment, which I can only imagine is for the reasons I’ve already set out.

Though, as I speak, it looks like today could be a turning point. But then you never know with daily SP movements, especially on AIM…

"FY trading update: H2 profits more than offset H1". Shame that wasn't the headline in the RNS.

Sageman - you don’t need to “personally witness” the massive surge in bookings: exceptional pent-up demand after total prohibition is a given. So TUI's results on 10 May should on the face of it be decent. The $64,000 question is, what happens once this pent-up demand has been satisfied? The languishing SP suggests it won’t last, maybe because, on top of the perennial threats to the hapless tourism and travel industry (wars, pandemics, climate activism, oil price, taxation...), a recession looming…

...hasn’t been a great month for DX, has it? (a steady drop of c10% on very low turnover).

On the face of it, this is odd given the succession of RNSs confirming the fast pace of depot openings, and the likelihood of excellent trading results this year. However, against that there was the grant of share options to the CEO, with its surprisingly modest SP targets, e.g. a mere 30p threshold vesting target.

Most significant though, I think, is simply the background of poor sentiment following the year-long suspension. I’ve always thought it could take a year or so for DX to regain the trust it lost during that period. But then along came the lurid, and slightly amusing, headlines about “espionage”, which though unlikely to involve the company in a material cost, will have given at least some potential investors another reason to hold back.

So however good the numbers, they’ll need to work hard on their PR if the SP is to fully respond this year. As an absolute minimum, they need to dispose of the Tufnell's case asap.

Keep the faith? Only 3 weeks ago you lost faith! (When you called for the CEO to be ousted, and for someone new to be installed to increase shareholder value). What's changed?

avocet - “What are you actually trying to achieve on this board with your incessant posting?”

You could ask that of anyone on this board.

We’re all anonymous, and no one needs to declare his position. In general, some of us are genuine long term investors, some (probably most on here) are gamblers looking for a quick buck, some may be shorters. So we all have different agendas.

All we can do as readers of the board is to try to extract any useful, verifiable information, and challenge any “facts”.
Having said that, 99% of the posts on this board are not worth reading, eg posts of the type “this will be 750p by the end of the week” repeated ad nauseam....

"As revenues soar ever upwards..." . That depends on customer demand. Even TUI acknowledge the risk of declining customer demand, as household budgets are squeezed.

I make it:
H1 adjusted pre-tax loss £1.1m
FY adjusted pre-tax profit £0.3m
H2 adjusted pre-tax profit £1.4m
23/24 adjusted pre-tax profit £2.8m (also = pre-tax profit, assuming no material exceptional costs).

That's 5.6p per share. Assuming an effective tax rate of 10% due to tax losses etc, we have EPS of 5p, and a PE ratio of just over 3.

If that doesn't give scope for a major uprating - to at least Allenby's 38p target which implies a PE of around a still-lowly 8 - I don't know what does.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some PDMR purchases now, taking advantage of post-update weakness.

dc2 - cost savings were never going to feed through till 23/24 in any event. At least they've met their adjusted profit forecast of £0.3m for 22/23.

To be fair, Microlise also referred, in its recent update, to "cost and supply issues that might arise in the context of the current events in Ukraine".