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Hexam - “€150m…is the interest they have to pay this year on loans”.
However, the effect on earnings, which is what really matters, will be the total interest expense for the year, which will include the €170m of interest on lease liabilities, giving a total of €320m.
Ports – you say you see a lot more DPD vans …..but that’s to be expected, isn’t it? DPD is a much, much bigger company than DX. However, as a minnow, Express has plenty of scope to increase its market share in a growing market, which should boost its profit margin through operational leverage (mind you, its operating profit is already fast approaching £18m, i.e. a respectable 10% operating margin on close to £180m turnover).
So I feel quite comfortable about the investment in depots and parcel handling equipment, which should also produce plenty of efficiency and productivity gains. Bottom line is that we still have some way to go before organic growth runs out of steam.
Clearly, we’ll never see the same SP growth as when the company went from basket case to recovery. But, relative to its earnings growth prospects and healthy cash position, the SP is definitely underperforming at the moment, which I can only imagine is for the reasons I’ve already set out.
Though, as I speak, it looks like today could be a turning point. But then you never know with daily SP movements, especially on AIM…
Sageman - you don’t need to “personally witness” the massive surge in bookings: exceptional pent-up demand after total prohibition is a given. So TUI's results on 10 May should on the face of it be decent. The $64,000 question is, what happens once this pent-up demand has been satisfied? The languishing SP suggests it won’t last, maybe because, on top of the perennial threats to the hapless tourism and travel industry (wars, pandemics, climate activism, oil price, taxation...), a recession looming…
...hasn’t been a great month for DX, has it? (a steady drop of c10% on very low turnover).
On the face of it, this is odd given the succession of RNSs confirming the fast pace of depot openings, and the likelihood of excellent trading results this year. However, against that there was the grant of share options to the CEO, with its surprisingly modest SP targets, e.g. a mere 30p threshold vesting target.
Most significant though, I think, is simply the background of poor sentiment following the year-long suspension. I’ve always thought it could take a year or so for DX to regain the trust it lost during that period. But then along came the lurid, and slightly amusing, headlines about “espionage”, which though unlikely to involve the company in a material cost, will have given at least some potential investors another reason to hold back.
So however good the numbers, they’ll need to work hard on their PR if the SP is to fully respond this year. As an absolute minimum, they need to dispose of the Tufnell's case asap.
avocet - “What are you actually trying to achieve on this board with your incessant posting?”
You could ask that of anyone on this board.
We’re all anonymous, and no one needs to declare his position. In general, some of us are genuine long term investors, some (probably most on here) are gamblers looking for a quick buck, some may be shorters. So we all have different agendas.
All we can do as readers of the board is to try to extract any useful, verifiable information, and challenge any “facts”.
Having said that, 99% of the posts on this board are not worth reading, eg posts of the type “this will be 750p by the end of the week” repeated ad nauseam....
I make it:
H1 adjusted pre-tax loss £1.1m
FY adjusted pre-tax profit £0.3m
H2 adjusted pre-tax profit £1.4m
23/24 adjusted pre-tax profit £2.8m (also = pre-tax profit, assuming no material exceptional costs).
That's 5.6p per share. Assuming an effective tax rate of 10% due to tax losses etc, we have EPS of 5p, and a PE ratio of just over 3.
If that doesn't give scope for a major uprating - to at least Allenby's 38p target which implies a PE of around a still-lowly 8 - I don't know what does.
"Trakm8 Holdings concerned about effect of Ukraine war" is, predictably, the headline on MarketWatch - i.e. the main takeaway from the update for a stock market which struggles to understand the company at the best of times.
The update was going so well.....and then: "We continue to be concerned about the impact on costs and business sentiment due to the ongoing war in Ukraine." "Continue" to be concerned? Maybe I missed it, but I don't recall them ever expressing concern in the first place!
Unfortunately, the market may interpret this as "getting in their excuses upfront", in which case the SP may continue to tread water until the publication of final results around the end of June. In the meantime, let's see what , if anything, Allenby have to say.
As we're probably only days away from an important update, which is likely to be very positive (for a change!), I'd be surprised if it drifted down much further. It's 18.66p to buy 20k at the moment.
"Nice trade to end the day so you now have to pay over 20p"
You still have to pay a smidgen under 20p. It's unlikely to move much until the next big update, which could even be next week (last year it was on 26 April).