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KBYK - it certainly does feel like Groundhog Day!

Interesting that ML/Raza now have £1.1m tied up in CLN's, and with the lower conversion price of 8.1p, this will potentially give them an additional 13.6m shares, taking them to c38% I think of the enlarged share capital if no one else converts. Edging ever closer to a takeover?

By the way, I wonder who the undisclosed subscribers - who've stumped up £590k of the £990k - are. It's hard to believe, with the large sums involved, that they're not connected with the company in some, possibly obscure, way.

dc2 - maybe agreement was close when the software contract was first mentioned. Then something or other happened to delay it....

Yes, what stands out is the timing. Were they crying wolf last week, I wonder?

On the face of it, today's announcement is a clear vote of confidence from the directors. Cynics would say, yes but it's in their interests to keep the company going, because that will ensure they can continue to draw their inflated salaries.

However, this is not true of Raza, who's put in another £100k. Then again, what is that to someone worth well over £50m?

Overall, though, I think today's RNS is good news. I'm surprised therefore to see that you can buy the shares today cheaper than you could yesterday. I don't think this will last. It could even double if the elusive software contract is landed.

ML's SP has jumped today following its RNS re a AU$20m contract - good news for ML is indirectly good news for Trak of course.

Also, ML have confirmed that its audited results for 2023 will be issued on 9/4/24, together with a presentation to investors at 11am on the same day. The presentation may be worth watching for any clues about their intentions towards Trak.

It would be nice to think ML will at the same time take the bull by the horns and announce a takeover of Trak - at a decent price of course! But I suspect nothing will happen and nothing will be said, unless they are specifically asked to comment.

More likely is that the long-awaited contract will be landed by Trak, and the SP will drift back up a bit, perhaps as KBYK said to 14/15p, or a bit higher even depending on the size of the contract. But still not high enough to reverse (most) investors' losses...

"Why would you sign a contract with a business that is potentially going to run out of cash"

All the more reason for ML to take over the company.

Though in any case a substantial contract should automatically stop them running out of cash.

According to Allenby, "Management remains confident that a contract will be secured."

The RNS was not nearly so bullish, but perhaps they didn't want to tempt fate.

By the way, QTX has lost 70% of its value since 2021, so they've also had their fair share of banana skins.

A couple of points.

If Trak is so badly run, why have ML - and Raza personally - invested so heavily (starting with £2.3m in shares, before digging themselves in even deeper by lending £1m?) Have they too been fooled? Or have they just been distracted by running their own business? Or do they know/believe something – something positive about Trak – that we don’t?

Also, why have the large shareholders not bailed? They include the ex-FD with roughly 5% of the shares – surely he, of all people, should be able to judge the situation the company is in.

Whatever the situation, let’s hope something happens soon to bring this sorry saga to a conclusion.

At the end of the day, all we can do now is sit and wait for the next news - something we're all well used to doing....

If nothing else, it's livened up this discussion board!

You have to hand it to them dc2, they've managed to fool everyone, including Microlise, Allenby - and the lenders probably.

As implied by a recent posting of yours, they could miraculously secure the contract and the insurance market could miraculously recover. But in the meantime, I hate to think what the balance sheet at 31/3/24 will look like. It certainly won't look pretty, so I'd expect further announcements shortly.

Microlise will be particularly put out - 20% of the results of Trak are reflected in ML's profit and loss account, so the swing of £3.2m represents a "hit" of £0.64m. In a company with PBT of £3m that's gonna hurt, so this fiasco arguably requires an RNS from ML too!

So I'd be amazed if ML weren't holding a brainstorming session entitled "How do you solve a problem like Trak?" as I speak.

As recently as 24/11/23, Allenby were expecting an adjusted PBT of £1.8m. Trak now say they are expecting an adjusted loss before tax of £1.4m, i.e. a £3.2m turnaround. And that's even after cutting out £1m of overheads. Incredible! Heads must roll, surely.

ML now also have the recoverability of their £1m convertible loan note to worry about, so I don't think it would suit them to just allow Trak to fall into admin.

At the current SP, ML are nursing a big loss - over £1m - on their investment in Trak. ML's annual PBT is only around £3m, so it must be quite worrying for them.

The question is, will it galvanise them into action at last?

If not, is there anyone else who would be interested in Trak? A bid at, say, 20p from someone else may even be attractive to ML as a way of ending their own misery. Either that or they'd be prompted to match it.

We now know what all the coded messages in those minuscule trades mean!

"Hopeful ???"

Yes, that word sent shivers down my spine.

"Why is it necessary to delay the signing for the best commercial outcome? What does that even look like - any ideas?"

No, it's bizarre. For me, the RNS raises more questions than it answers, which is why I held off from topping up.

It certainly feels like we're entering the endgame, because I can't see ML just passively shoring up the company once more.

It's time to take the bull by the horns and bring Trak (minus the company's senior management) into the ML fold.

I passed up the opportunity to buy 100,000 at around 8p - I feared it could go even lower in the short term. That fear now appears to have been unfounded.

Others have said it all really. Very disappointing RNS in terms of both the message and the level of detail.

With a market cap of just £4m, they are certainly vulnerable to a takeover by ML. But at what price? Obviously we can forget £1 per share, but if ML can see the potential, JW may be able to extract, say, 20p per share from them, i.e. £10m.

It will be interesting to see what Allenby have to say, particularly in relation to "fair value", which they've previously estimated at around 40p per share.

Nothing is certain in this game, but I think it's highly likely that investors' inestimable patience will be rewarded with a contract RNS.

If we have misjudged the situation, then so have respected industry leaders and insiders Microlise, who expect to increase their stake later this year to just under 30%, so we're in good company at least!

Anyway, not long to wait now...

Direct Line takeover now seems dead in the water...whatever that means, if anything, for Trak.

I was thinking in the context of its bombed-out share price, and the prolonged radio silence. Every little helps, whether it's Tesco or Trak...