Member Info for Pianista

KBYK - if we are guilty of poor judgement, then so are industry leaders ML who bought in at over 20p, and have continued to support the company. That's not much consolation though.

What irks me, is that we haven't been given any indication of what went wrong with the all-important mythical contract. They at least owe us an explanation. Or are they guilty of stringing us along, and risking legal action by the shareholders? But then how did they convince the Nomad, who would normally have reviewed the evidence?

But all that is now history. All that really matters to us now is what happens next. This is still a substantial business with £15m of turnover, albeit loss-making. I wouldn't mind betting that later this month, there is corporate action of some kind. When you say "take it private", do you mean JW and ML make an offer to all the other shareholders?

I agree dc2, if there were any prospect at all of this rising from the dead, there'll be plenty of director/employee buying. We shall see...

If taking it private means we get bought out at 20p - around half Allenby's estimate of fair value - I wouldn't complain.

Extremely disappointing, given that only in December, they said "the Board remains confident of improving revenues compared to the prior financial year". Now, suddenly, it's a drop of nearly 10%...

It's going to be an even longer wait for battered PIs. Microlise can't be happy either.

But at least large reputable companies are still prepared to do business with them.

From Mail online 10/3/25:

"A leading Chemring investor has said any offer should ‘strongly consider’ the firm’s future earning power, as defence spending increases across Europe.

US private equity group Bain Capital made a 390p-a-share offer worth £1.1billion for the British explosives maker last month, but it was knocked back.

Shares stand at 401p, up 21.7 per cent this year, with analysts expecting further gains as European nations boost their military firepower.

Experts say a successful bid would need to be more than 500p share – or £1.4billion.

Aviva Investors – its seventh biggest shareholder with a 4.89 per cent stake – has backed the firm.

Aviva fund manager Kunal Kothari told the Mail: ‘Given Chemring’s plans to invest in additional capacity to serve high-forecast demand for its products in the years to come, any offer needs to strongly consider the earnings power of this business once its capacity growth plans are executed, not its earnings power today.’"

There does seem to be a change of mood.

I was quoted 5.00p for 30,000 today.

Worth holding on for more methinks.

It looks like the first bid was made when the SP was languishing around 300p. Since then, the SP had shot up to around 360p, before today’s news.

The revised bid now being worked on is bound to be a lot higher, well into the 400’s. So it’s hard to see why the SP has been drifting back down.

I’m not too concerned to be honest, about their questionable use of customer reviews. This is pure marketing, and marketing people do tend to be a bit gung ho, but then it’s their job to be out there selling the company for all it’s worth. And they work to different standards from those who are charged with pure reporting.

This is a useful reminder to investors not to take too seriously what is said informally. What matters is the company‘s RNSs ultimately. Speaking of which, where is that elusive RNS announcing the (mythical?) optimisation contract?

Like I say, this saga seems to have no end…

When they last reported, they did at least confirm that they expected to keep going for at least 12 months.

It's just that they gave no detail to back that up in the face of an apparently unhealthy balance sheet.

However, as I said in December, they must have explained everything to their NOMAD, Allenby, who seem perfectly relaxed.

I was also wondering if Microlise had given certain assurances, eg a letter of comfort or even a guarantee, but if this were the case I think Trak would need to have disclosed it if relying on it to justify the going concern basis.

There seems no end to this saga.....

Despite the cyber security incident, they've just reported very good results, including revenue of £81m.

No mention of Trak, despite their holding having dropped in value by 2/3rds during the year!

I feel they still have great faith in Trak, that it will come good eventually....I just hope they're right.

Glad you said "end of April" and not April 1st!

Despite the same "challenging" environment faced by CRU, Robinson has today reported an impressive 14% YoY increase in revenue.

There is hope for CRU yet!

It's clear from the Allenby paper that £1.5m PBT this year is not nailed on, in other words there is already a "profit warning" in there. If the £1.5m were believed by the market, the SP would be ten times higher!

"By the way, I noticed the change within the job advert because it was being publicised on X, this morning, which again gives more confidence that the lights remain on".

Good point (given the lack of direct evidence).

Will 2025 be the year when positivity finally translates to profits? It’s the perennial question!

Happy Christmas to all Trakkies - and a prosperous New Year!

I agree. Below the belt. Potentially actionable.

Only last week, the government was calling on banks and institutional investors to step up support for the UK’s defence sector despite pressure from activists over ethical concerns.

I would therefore have expected the shares to be now moving in the opposite direction - back into the 400s.

So to me today’s fall looks contrived, as if calculated to give certain players an entrée.

What we're missing is knowledge of the assumptions underlying their assessment of the validity of the going concern basis.

However, they must have explained all this to their NOMAD, Allenby, who seem relaxed about it.

Even so, in the face of the stark reality portrayed by the balance sheet, they really ought to have provided us with more detail about the cash position, and how they expect to repay the loans next year. Until satisfied, the market will continue to punish the shares.....

....unless in the meantime we get some spectacular news for a change, for example that the AA have decided to roll out Vixa to all its 3m+ customers, or that Adiona have finally walked the walk, and put in a order for millions of devices.

In our dreams!

Not currently a shareholder in ML, but at around 100p it could well be a good time to buy.

But Trak's performance doesn't reflect well on ML, who've so far lost 75% of their investment. They've always been tight-lipped about Trak, but it's got to the point now that they surely can't avoid saying something at the next update.

In Trak's defence, they've done very well on Optimisation this year, even without "the contract". This has been their saviour. If insurance weren't so dire, they'd be back in the teens.

Although the balance sheet is far from pretty, the directors have at least confirmed the validity of the going concern basis, i.e. that they can meet all liabilities due in the next 12 months, which includes some substantial loan repayments.

Meanwhile, the cash position isn't great, but they still haven't had to draw on their £0.5m overdraft with HSBC, so I think fears of their imminent demise are unfounded. However, some comforting noises from ML would not be unwelcome at this time, along with further contract news and a revival of the insurance market.

Still forecasting £1.5m profit before tax this year, but predicated on “the contract” materialising.

There is hope yet!