Member Info for Pianista

If today's stirrings in the market are anything to go by, that hope is about to be realised.

For the record, I finally got out last week - it's no longer an investment, it's a pure gamble. (Some would say it always was, but I think the company has had a lot of bad luck, most notably with the "significant optimisation contract" which would have made all the difference.)

Chances are, shareholders will get their 9.5p, but in this unpredictable, volatile world, you can't completely rule out the deal falling through, or a better offer coming along.

Best to focus now on trying to win back the losses elsewhere...

If I’d seen the RNS straightaway, I’d probably have got out like you dc_2. I’ve since reduced by around a half. I’ll probably sell the rest because the chance of a better offer I think is pretty remote, though you can never say never.

By the way, I think we now know how Microlise could be so confident that they would recover their loan in full. Also, the more bullish comments by employees now make sense.

Once I’m out, I shan’t miss the pain of seeing my investment drain away, but I will miss this BB. In particular thank you for your informative posts over the years.

I suppose there is nothing to stop another suitor coming along with an increased offer of say 15p per share, which is still peanuts to some of the bigger players out there.

Brillian, realising that they wouldn’t get the requisite 75% shareholder approval, would have no choice but to withdraw their offer.

There’s plenty of time for all this to play out: we won’t even get a timetable for the takeover for almost a month.

If no one else comes along, I suspect payout of 9.5p per share will not occur until August or September.

Only just seen this.

Leaves me with a loss of about 50%, but that’s a lot better than the near 90% it was at this morning.

So all in all, good news.

It also leaves ML with a roughly 50% loss, so I feel I’m in good company.

In its Annual Report issued today, ML continues to maintain that its £1m loan to Trak is essentially fully recoverable.

That must mean that Trak's other major lenders, who take precedence, must feel the same way about their loans.

How Trak are managing this, is far from clear from its published information.

Perhaps the next update will be better than we've come to expect...

Looking very good - it doesn't look like a company that is about to run out of road, if you'll forgive the pun.

If only the 10 year share chart looked as pretty! Such a contrast....

On point 1: Maybe they’ll be granting more options at the mid price of 2.5p, which is cheaper for them than buying at the current offer price of 2.9p.

But it also means more dilution for hapless PIs, and lacks the positive message to the market that purchases would give.

AIM listing fee for Trak would be £11,000 pa, per the LSE website.

When I looked at the costs of listing some time back, it was nowhere near £300k pa. From memory, it was more like tens of thousands, and certainly not enough to make a difference. Plus it probably wouldn't suit ML for Trak to go unlisted. Ditto employees with shares, albeit they're all under water at the moment. (I'm not sure if there is scope to issue further options at the current bombed out SP).

But it's the kind of business where its fortunes can turn on a sixpence. If only "the contract" had come off, it would suddenly be in clover. But no doubt it will be pursuing other lucrative optimisation contracts. So it wouldn't take much for the SP to start heading (rapidly) north again.

On ML's comment about the recoverability of the loan: we - and equally importantly, prospective clients of Trak - are entitled to assume that it was not a throwaway remark. (There is no negative comment on the loan in the Contingencies note either, so it's completely clean).

Remember, ML are in the unique position of being privy to Trak's cash flow forecast through Raza's seat on the board. It would be an extremely serious matter if they pulled the wool over his eyes. And for all the criticisms levelled at JW, I'm sure he would not stoop that low and risk a prison sentence.

So it is a reasonable assumption that the loan is recoverable - though how exactly Trak are keeping their head above water is hard to see from our vantage point. If they've lined up further or alternative sources of finance, they would have had to tell us, so it can't be that.

The company remains frustratingly inscrutable....

For 20k, it’s 1.9p to sell, 2.9p to buy.

Never been in a share with such a huge spread - it’s around 50%.

References to Trak:

"Investments in associates consist of a 20% holding in Trakm8 Holdings plc acquired on 22 December 2018 and measured in accordance with the accounting policy. The company is listed on AIM and at 31 December 2024 the market value of the shareholding was £0.475m (2023: £1.55m).

The Company also advanced £1,000,000 to Trakm8 Holdings plc in September 2022. This is a loan bearing interest at 18% (2023: 12%), repayable 14 September 2025 or convertible at the Company's option into a fixed number of ordinary shares in Trakm8 Holdings plc. It is considered that the fair value of the loan is approximately £1,000,000 and the convertible element has no separate material equity value."

So no write-down of the loan: they must think Trak will pull through, and they should know.

It's very difficult to judge ML's intentions - over recent years, they've been very tight-lipped about Trak.

Apart from their £2m+ investment in Trak's shares, only 2 years ago they got in even deeper by lending £1m. So I'm sure that they believe in the company, and that the last thing on their mind is picking up assets on administration, which would leave them with a loss of around £3m.

If Trak had landed "the contract", the situation today would be a lot different, and ML know this.

If ML are so convinced that the business is viable, then takeover seems a no-brainer. By taking out the BOD, it would be instantly profitable, and worth at least 10p per share to ML, or £4m, which is chicken feed. Maybe JW could extract 15-20p. Who knows?

We may find out more about ML's intentions tomorrow, their results day. Not holding my breath though.

Yes, can now buy 20,000 at 2.2p - down 18%.

I've already said I fully expect an RNS, eg for another dilutive placing, in the next few days. Whether the drop is related to that possibility/probability, I don't know.

I've just taken the plunge - I'm betting that a good proportion of the UK's astronomical £300bn welfare budget will end up in JDW's coffers!

I think Joe was making a valid point. Sounds like Morrisons have been incredibly indecisive, to the point of stringing Trak - and by extension us - along for a couple of years. Morrisons may well be "multi-billion", but that doesn't necessarily mean they are a well-run business, and there's no harm in telling them in the nicest possible way they need to pull their socks up.

The only thing embarrassing about the post was the misspelling of Morrisons!

Maybe they'll take Joe's advice. Hopefully they'll not add insult to injury by using one of Trak's competitors...

Allenby have now commented on the trading update.

However, it's equally terse, and adds nothing. "Forecasts under review", they say.

It's understandable that, from their point of view, the less said the better.

Excellent post, dc2.

ML have a results presentation on Thursday at 11am. Having lost over £2m on their investment in Trak, it would be extremely odd if they made no comment at all. But we've said that before...

I suspect it's now in danger of running out of cash, so yet another highly dilutive £1m+ placing seems likely. But that would at least represent an expression of confidence in the business.