Member Info for Pianista

Yes, same to you and the other "Trakies" - especially "Happy New Year" (thanks to Trak’s turnaround?).

But nothing much will happen to the SP till we get some news, notably confirmation (or otherwise!) of the outstanding contract renewals.

News of director purchases would also be helpful. If the 2023/24 transformation is nailed on, why wouldn’t they?

In the meantime, ML’s trading update in a month or so might be interesting - if/when commenting on M&A, in order not to lose credibility Raza will need to explain what on earth is going on with his only deal since flotation, and what he plans to do about it!

Like all PIs on this board, I'd rather go into the weekend on a high, but the SP has been moved today by just a handful of small trades by people who know no more than us, so I wouldn't attach too much significance to it.

Maybe Raza's not too troubled by the latest drop either - he's no stranger to extreme SP volatility accentuated by ultra-thin trading (just look at ML).

Though in a way it would be good if he were troubled by it, and came to the conclusion that being a more-or-less passive investor will just see his c£2.5m equity investment drain away... he's not a natural dealmaker by the look of it, and may just need this latest drop to galvanise him into action.

"Doesn't say who got them I notice".

Must therefore be people below board level basically, eg Nick Hill, for whom options at this rock-bottom price are a huge incentive to get selling! So it's good news.

I know it's not saying much, but following the restructuring Trak is in the best position it's been in for years. So why the SP is almost at an all-time low is a mystery - not least to Raza, no doubt, who thought 17p was a bargain just three months ago.

So I can't see the SP staying there for long...

Even before the finals, SP should have been 350p - 400p if you compare it with BAE's over the last year.

9.30am - last year it was at a more sensible 11am - is not the most PI-friendly time to have a meeting in central London, even without transport strikes and bad weather. It's almost as if they want to minimise attendance...

Yes, the turnaround is finally taking place, albeit frustratingly slowly. It's worth hanging on therefore. Plus there's the real chance of a takeover.

No real surprises either way. The update more or less confirms and expands on the outlook given in September, which makes you wonder why the SP has drifted down by 1/3rd since that time – except of course that with such thin trade, SP is an unreliable indicator of value. So I think, depending on what Allenby have to say, it’s now more likely to slowly drift back up than down - all the more so if/when the “large” software contract renewal is confirmed - and if I weren’t already invested, I’d be buying at this level. I won’t, because it’ll be reward enough for me to see my existing Trak loss eliminated.

dc2 - my thinking was that it wouldn't necessarily take a material change for the SP to stay down in the doldrums. After years of losses, a lacklustre performance this year, eg missing the expected almost token profit of £300k by even a relatively small margin, would probably be enough.

And no amount of jam tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow, would make up for it in the short term.

We need news that they're actually exceeding expectations - what a novelty that would be!

"Re the sales, it could be staff that have recently being moved on selling their holdings - no clue"

Or existing employees - low-ranking, given the relatively small size of the trades - who know something, or strongly suspect something based on body language even!

That's always the worry - that there is something well-founded (and illegal!) behind the selling.

But we have been here a number of times in the past, and the shares have always bounced back, so who knows this time...

"Buys outweigh the sells - if reported correctly".

They have been reported correctly.

Out of curiosity I did a dummy buy earlier, and was quoted 14.7p for 50,000, so I don't know where 13.7p has suddenly come from, but this could tempt me to top up, even though already overweight.

"let us hope they are honest and accurate".

From what I've seen, I'm sure JW is honest. That just leaves "accurate"!

Another 800-odd sale - is JW's grandson at it again?

Branches I've looked in at over the last couple of weeks have been surprisingly quiet, apart from one Sat pm when all tables were occupied (by drinkers).

KBYK - I was out and about, so missed Friday’s share trading action, such as it was. However, it was only one relatively modest sale at 14p, i.e. at the same offer price realised throughout week. Not particularly significant therefore?

As regards the nature of the news likely to land next week, we can only go on what we’ve been told by the company, and extrapolate from there. In particular:

14/9/22: “The Board is pleased to announce that the Group remains on target to meet market expectations for revenues and adjusted profit [£300k per Allenby] for the current financial year”.
22/9/22: “We expect that the number of connections will continue to grow significantly in the second half of the year, which will be the driver for increased recurring revenues”.

They can only have made those statements because they were confident of H2 contract awards/renewals, or that contracts were already signed, or about to be signed.

If those clear, rather bullish statements were no longer true, eg because of the loss of a significant contract, they would need to inform the market straightaway, i.e. bring forward the half-year RNS (or make a separate announcement), rather than delay it.

So I still think they’re true, and as dc2 says, there’s Raza’s continued support - and that of all the other substantial shareholders - so I’m not too worried about the update, though you always have to brace yourself in these situations…

Sounds like a family member sold some in error. If so, I wonder if son Mark technically should also have made a disclosure (depending on who exactly sold). Anyway, it's of no real consequence.

dc2 - The FD isn’t that new, so I’d like to think the reason for the delay is that they want to give as full a picture as possible of H2 and the outlook for the year.

Good news about One Call - and Ticker.

However, the way the SP has been drifting down again indicates that the market is not yet convinced that 2023/24 will be transformational for Trak.

The slight delay in publishing its half-year results - which will give us a better idea of the likelihood of achieving the anticipated c£2m adjusted PBT for 2023/24 – probably isn’t helping.

At the very least we need a strong indication (in next week's RNS?) that adjusted PBT for 2022/23 will exceed £300k, following (hopefully) an encouraging start to the all-important H2.

Otherwise I fear that Trak will have the distinction of being the dog of my portfolio for about the 5th year running!

ML must be feeling almost as frustrated as PIs...the difference being that ML is in a position to do something about it. They must surely be close to taking a conveniently newly slimmed-down Trak by the scruff of the neck. But a watched pot never boils…

203p to buy at the moment. Not too bad, given their typically over-cautious outlook.

Yes, ports, it means dilution, but it’s not really news, because it’s always been hanging over us, so at least in theory it’s already been taken into account by the market.

The biggest chunk is Lloyd of course. He already owned 11% of the company when he left, but this will potentially increase to roughly 16% if/when he exercises his options. He’s done nothing (material) so far (exercised/sold), otherwise it would have been RNS’d.