Why hovering around £1?28 Oct 2015 10:28
It is easy to be positive about Quindell these days with a strong position in telematics, a substantial sum of money in the bank and more cash coming in over 18 months for NIHL from a credible source. That should put the SP anywhere between £1.20 and £1.50.
But potential investors that don't yet own Quindell shares will look at these points as hurdles to jump, with the posibility of at least one fall:
1) No NIHL cash has yet been paid and until the first payment comes through this can be regarded as a risk. Also, 'unbeleivers' can point at SGH and say why is their share price still hovering at half its value four months ago?
2) The Capital Refund issue is becoming a thorn in the side of Quindell partly because the BoD have not given real evidence about timescale and amount. If they said a £1/share and by end 2015 that would be something but any wording provided has a degree of ambiguity about it.
3) Nothing has yet been provided about our estimed subsidiaries performance forecast. If sales and profits were reasonable then something could be said to steady the waters of speculation, but saying nothing is causing the dark side of speculation to keep popping up its ugly head.
4) If and when the Capital Refund occurs then many possible investors may then say Quindell is underfinanced and not financially equipped to handle the subsidiaries into growth and profitability. Back to Square One, a fire sale.
5) The continued FSA investigation comes up in EVERY publication article out there. Whilst many (incl me) are confident the result will not harm Quindell, many possible investors will say it is a big unquantified risk.
On balance, this is why the SP hovers around a £1.
Someone suggested a Court Hearing on (2) will occur on 2nd Dec, but I have not heard anything official on this. It may result in a decision on the day, or it may result in a deferred decision until an SFO conclusion, due its unknown financial implications.
Only time will tell as each of these issues are resolved. Meanwhile, I am sure that are excellent BoD are quietly getting on with, at least, resolving (3) which is where the companies future lies.
Quindell has to PROVE that it is moving into becoming a well run business and to achieve that ALL of the above has to be resolved. My bet is that it will all be resolved favourably but it will take time. Anyone arguing against this sentiment is probably a shorter in waiting.
ATB, P