Member Info for Phrontist

ASX (Australia Stock Exchange) OPEN

LSE (London Stock Exchange) CLOSED Summer Bank Holiday

So, we can watch and read, but not do Buy / Sell

Phrontist

Darkelf, how old are you?

LearningToInvest, I have given many opinions and projections here.

I think between 50p and £1 is likely. When depends if Farm Outs complete in 2018, to Big Oil Companies, and those companies convert to BUY in 2019. This has always been the plan. Possibly running a bit late.

Chance is quite reasonable. I laugh when Doom and Gloom say their bit on here. Of course, an end Game under 2p is possible. But if you look at the picture of Icewine 1's HRZ rock sample two years ago, you KNOW substantial oil WILL FLOW. Oil was dripping out of the sample and flowing over the Lab Bench.

We are speculating on engineering, mechanics, chemistry, electronic control, electronic surveillance and sensing to sus out Icewine 2 issues. Top end stuff, just in time for 88E / BEX.

Conventional is much more straightforward. 3D Seismic with comprehensive computer and expert analysis should be able to pinpoint underground oil lakes. Then drilling and production SHOULD be very low risk.

Geology is more or less done, from start with PB 8 years ago to completion with 3D Seismic analysis early 2018 and ongoing inside computers now. Likely being completed by end September.

Just in case bbb appears and waves his Thesaurus....

All IMHO. But nothing new here. DYOR.

Phrontist

SilverTrader

1 US $ = 78p

1 Aus $ = 57p

I prefer US $, Aussie stuff is about as tradeable as Russian Rouble

But, suppose 57p it is. What then?

I think more than 50% of shareholders would vote to take it.

For many, it has been 3 to 6 years of loyalty.

However, which way a shareholder vote goes would depend on the prevailing circumstances.

Has North Slopes produced oil on a commercial basis for conventional and/or unconventional?

If neither, then 57p is a steal.

If both, go for £1 /share, BoD to negotiate hard.

Interesting scenarios. Those still thinking sub-2p, pass me by please.

Phrontist

cat, within the 25% cash-in-early benefits you:

no more stress
no more risk
can spend on your loved ones and self
buy that flash car before you die...….
pay off credit cards, mortgage, whatever
feel free, no longer mentally tied to SP movements
invest half in a safe bet, if you know one ha ha ha
Eat well and join local Health Club - get your health back
Tell bailiff to fukc off

We are all different, I am sure the list is endless....all of this is worth at least 50%....

Phrontist

Silver Trader - you suggest $1 /share PURCHASE of 88Energy shares.

Into UK money x0.78 = 78p

I would vote YES for that as well.

The £1/share is a dream, it is quite possible, but late 2019 I think.

But old saying - a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

78p in 2018 is worth more than £1+ in late 2019.

Phrontist

Brom, my man....you say:

Have no other AIM share holdings these days.

That makes two of us. Excellent. Have a nice weekend.

SP might go up, might go down in short term. But long term, someone will want that vast oil sweet spot. And the someone will have to pay.....

Phrontist

August is always a slow month.

In many countries August is the "official" month off for industrial, commercial, education, government, etc.

And that is when vast numbers of people become Part Time waiters, barmen, hotel staff etc.

Particularly France, Spain, Greece hot holiday countries.

And UK to large extent. Is it winter in Perth? Summer in Alaska.

Anyway, it is thought by many that the Financial Market returns early September. Kids are back at school, college etc. Time to do RNS's and Buy Shares. Ha ha.

I will be quite surprised now if an important RNS comes out before Mon 3 Sept.

Unlike previous 88E / BEX winters, this coming winter could feature some really interesting and beneficial RNS's.

I am still rooting for 4p SP by end 2018.

Not based on any specific FACTS.

But based on probability that after much work on:

unconventional Expert investigation and report
conventional 3D on North Slopes AND Yukon Gold
conventional progress with New JV
Farm Out contract on North Slopes conventional (part area)
Farm Out contract on North Slopes UNconventional (part area)
Possible Farm Out on Yukon Gold (our Dark Horse but could be a Nice Little Earner)

Again, I strongly advise any prospective new shareholders that are dithering on a BUY decision, read the Profile Update issued on 88E web site (Announcements 2 August). It is excellent presentation of our present position and near future outline plans.

Phrontist

jiddy123

Do you really think comment on here can be called financial advice?

If a Newspaper says Unilever looks a good buy this year, is that Financial Advice?

If I say to you by private Email, wow oil exploration companies are piling into North Alaska, is that Financial Advice?

No, it is conversation, communication, analysis, etc.

Financial advice is when you PAY a Financial Advisor (who is acting in this capacity) for giving recommendations AND implementing those recommendations for you.

jiddy, I am not getting at you, I like your posts, this is about swapping opinions. )))

For bbb, all IMHO, I am not claiming FACTS just giving my OPINION.

I am not a Financial Advisor, never have been, never will be. etc etc

I am a shareholder in 88E, I have legitimate rights to make posts here.

Please note: almost by definition, opinions are unique to an individual and rarely identical to another person.

ha ha. Phrontist

I favour open minded discourse.

bbb88, what you say is interesting. Just not my style of attitude.

When you include personal abuse it devalues your other points.

Regularly, I read some negative comments from Darkelf. I often disagree, but never get aggressive about it. They are his view.

My comments today are IMHO a possible outcome.

Several years ago PB said he hoped to exceed $1b clear revenue from his participation in Burgundy. Then the oil price was sub-$40/barrel. My example below shows one way that his $1b can be realised. His targets have more value to me than yours do.

Phrontist

Ooops, done it again:

88E SP H2 2019 = 21p
should be:
88E SP H2 2019 = 21c = 16.2p

P

So, let us imagine Farm Out Contracts are signed Q4 2018.

Conventional and Unconventional oil is flowing end Q1 2019, just Flow testing levels.

North Slopes resources are considered 'proven' by end Q2 2019.

Farm Out companies exercise land purchase clause. Meaning, North Slopes asset is sold.

Say 5 bbo resources.

Typical sales price / barrel in 2020's = $100/b

Oil sale value over 15 years (say, and not inflation proofed) $100 x 5b = $500b

Knock off 16% Alaska Tax = $420b gross revenue

After production costs at $35/b, this becomes = $420b - $175b = $245b gross profit.

Very nice for Production Company. )))))

So, how much will they pay (up front) for North Slopes? 5%, 7.5%, 10%???

Suggest 7.5% of $245b = $18.375b for 88E / BEX

66% (??) attributable to 88E = $12.13b

Company retains 10% for ongoing Operations = $1.213b
(ha ha, BoD will be drinking more than coffee in the Boardroom)

Capital Refund to shareholders 90% of $10.9b = $9.8b

Capital Refund / share = $9.8b / 5.6b = US $1.75 / share

The residual 88E share price likely to be about: (10% of $1.75) + 20% for ongoing Ops

88E SP H2 2019 = 21p

Phrontist

Woops

this leaves a wapping $75/b gross margin, minus Alaska Tax.
should be:
this leaves a wapping $65/b gross margin, minus Alaska Tax.

P

The worlds largest single oil production company, Aramco, will no longer be listed. Saudi Gov (owners) have decided this long planned partial sale by Listing is not right for them.

My guess is, oil prices have doubled over the last year, which means their revenue doubled for same production level. Saudi Gov received $52b in H1 2017 in dividend alone.

Meanwhile, China are moving their oil and gas sourcing from Western World to Russia as retaliation against Trump Import Duties on Chinese goods.

How will such vast events and changes affect oil price? I don't know, ha ha.

But it shows that oil production volumes and distribution channels are a central and moving part of global trade. And these changes will affect oil price and therefore North Slopes asset valuations for Farm Out Contract which can include Land Sale Option clause. This latter part can even be executed during 2019 !!!!

IMHO trade wars will lead to USA becoming more inward looking, meaning they buy their own oil in preference to global oil. USA's manufacturing industry is back on growth path for basic metals and manufactured goods (vehicles, construction). Ergo, oil price within USA rise towards $100/b by end 2019.

If production costs on North Slopes are $35/b approx, this leaves a wapping $75/b gross margin, minus Alaska Tax.

Ergo, North Slopes is a Gold Mine, Big Time.

I really wish 88E would / could List their shares on NASDAQ. USA investors would just poor in by the barrel load.

Phrontist

It is August....

No RNS....

Sun is shining....

Have a nice day...

Phrontist

Brom

What a Team ….

I feel Big SP looming ahead.....

Phrontist

This is an interesting web site: Oil and Gas Law Digest

https://oilandgaslawdigest.com/about/
They have many articles relating to contract law and litigation law within the USA oil industry.

Specifically on Farm Out Agreements, we can all soon become experts:

Farmout Agreements: The Basics, Negotiations and Motivations
https://oilandgaslawdigest.com/primers-insights/farmout-agreements-basics-negotiations-motivations/

Farmout Agreements: Key Decisions and Negotiation Points
https://oilandgaslawdigest.com/primers-insights/farmout-agreements-part-two/

This is what 88E and BEX are likely to be spending much time on now, assuming we are an attractive Farm Out prospect!

Roll on 3D Seismic Report - conventional

Roll on Expert Analysis of Icewine 2 - unconventional

Both due for release around October time, no specific date given, just when complete.

I think our Management are having the time of their lives with so much positive work proceeding.

ATB Phrontist

Hello belisce6

Thank you for the fine information on Farm In/Out. )))

I agree, DW is The Man for negotiating these contracts.
Perhaps sharing the tasks with Burgundy's Michael McFarlane.

Are you experienced in the oil industry?

Phrontist

Can anyone suggest when we produce: First barrels of conventional? First barrels of unconventional? Will we need another Capital Raise before Oil Raise? Answer please, from 88E BoD asap Phrontist

4 July 2016

US holds more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, new study shows. The US holds the world's biggest recoverable reserves of oil putting it ahead of OPEC giants Saudi Arabia and Venezuela as well as Russia, according to an independent study by Norwegian research group Rystad Energy.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/070416-us-holds-more-oil-reserves-than-saudi-arabia-venezuela-new-study-shows

For the US, more than half of the remaining oil reserves are made up of unconventional shale oil with Texas alone holding over 60 billion barrels of shale oil, Rystad said Monday citing the new data.

Two years old article but showing unconventional is a key contributor to global oil production.

Phrontist