Member Info for petroleum1

OofyProsser: Many thanks for the valuable informatiom you are putting forward. In my view the main issue here is the hedge. On Angus board Q/A(question and answer) with management. Angus said they can cancel the hedge anytime. Is that correct? These new bidders can pay off the hedge(£12m) and keep the gas field and all the tax allawance.

OofyProsser: Reading skittish analysis I came to the conclusion that AAOG,SEM and ANGS will be combined into one entity. That was before Angus RNS saying five bidders came forward. This is a lucrative buisness opportunity and some of those bidders may be big players. AAOG could have been taken over by any body before but was kept away hidden purposely. I did not know Angus have this much tax allowance. The problem I have now is whether to keep my AAOG(converted to the new entity share) running or to cash it and recover my initial investment.

I guess who ever buy SGF can use AAOG tax allowance of £42m.

Seven unsucccessful sidetracks . If this not mechanical then it may inducate lithological variation within the the reservoir. There are a lot of resevoirs in the Nort Sea with lithological variation.It may reduce the value of the reservoir but it wont write it off.

Also Europe is struggling for gas and they declared a its as green enegy. The UK in slightly better situation. Demand for gas is not going to slow down and the supply is not going to improve.
The government should interfere for national interest. The cost of bringing Angus on stream is nothing .

The economics has changed now with the gas prices rocketing. The CPR figures now are no were
near to represent the true value of the reservoir. Surely the management can do something by aproaching other lenders / governments etc....

OofyProsser
Intereting that The field will be owned by hedge fund provider if the terms of the hedge are not met. Thanks for pointing this out. With gas prices are now sky high can't they correct this now?
Also gas transmissibility within the reservoir is very good and you do not need to sidetrack the well to make it flow unless they are looking for reservoir extension behind a fault block.

RNS issued by Angus on 26th OCT 2021 says the nmbers are for Angus interest of 51% only. It also include taxes and royalties. With AAOG in this will be nil.
{The CPR, performed by Oilfield International Limited, gives the net present value of the cash flows from the SGF, including the impact from the revised capex, the loan facility debt service costs, the associated royalties and the mandatory hedging. Oilfield International Limited has used a conservative discount rate of 10%. The previous February 2020 report values in parentheses, presenting the values attributable to Angus:

· A conservative case, or P90, NPV10 of £25.4 million (previously £16.7 million)

· A mid-case, or P50, NPV10 of £38.5 million (previously £25.2 million)}

Irish
Angus Assets is only 51%. So I guess that the total assets will be double. I remember an RNS
was reporting data from CPR some time ago for the whole fields. I will try to find it.

Not sure if SEM assets are included above.

If I understand correctly AAOG, ANGS and SEM will be combined in one entity. So what are the
assets of this entity. I have been trying to get information from Angus websie bulletin board and the following information were reported:

Saltfleetby £20m low risk
Lidsey £15m moderate risk after 80% prudential discount
Geothermal £8m higher risk after 90% prudential discount.
Management view of SoTP: £43m = 3.9p per share.
Uplift Saltfleetby by 54% for the revised CPR of 26/10/21: +£10.8m
Reduce the prudential discount re Lidsey from 80% to 60% to reflect progress made since 18/06/21: +£15m
Adjusted sum of the parts = £68.8m = 6.3p per share. Present share price is 1p.

But another poster points out that those numbers are exagerated:
Putting £8 million value on geothermal is ficticious.
Lidsey isn’t producing and would now need an injector well and another drill at least 2 basket case partners and the cooperation of the adjoining licence holder. So it may mean that reservoir pressure is depleted.
And as Saltfleetby is not producing and when it does you do not know the flowrate will be.

So I can see how important a tax benefit of £42 million that AAOG carries to everyone and you would think that the share price of ANGS will not drop after issuing another 900 million shares..

I had wondred why ANGS want to issue about 900 million new shares now(yesterday GM) when they are planning to sell the company in 3 wks time. I think it make sense to me now and I am thinking whether it is a good idea to buy few ANGS shares next week or wait for it to drop due to the new shares.

skittish
wish you full recovey and good health. Best regards

Sefton never told the truth ever. While the congolese was watching him to decide whether they
grant the licence he went round telling the world how much oil is there ready to be produced immediately and dragged misinformed investors with him. He even said he would produce the Djeno immediately while Djeno is an impervious rock. Also AAOG money went missing and were transferred to Tunisia to form a new oil company which later was banned by the Tunisian authority. Sefton was a barister and he was conveying the message as he was a geologist. I do not think that the congolese are stupid and they have a fair knowlege of the oil industry. Another similar example is TUSKAR. They never told the truth to their investors that although they are working with their local Nigerian partners they did not have a licence . When the Nigerian partners pulled the plug the investors lost eveything. There should be a law against these malpractises.

EchDelta
As you are selling the company in 3 weeks time why you want to raise money by placing 800m shares in two weeks time?

skitish/irish
This website is the best in the world. On Angus website you see posts posted at a rate of 10 per min. Posters accuse each other of double/tripple/quadruble aliases. Some posters predict paradise on the horizon and thers armagaden is comming. You go there to get some information and at the end of the day you are 10 times more confused than when you started. Thank you guys for illuminating posts and may god be with you.

skittish,
" Forum Energy's 25% stake making sure no one else could ever get a look in at AAOG."
So is delisting from AIM and turning the company into private entity which is barely legal. To me this indicate how important AAOG tax losses are to them and may be all this Angus sale of assets is also part of the game being played.

Skittish:
You calculated £42m of tax losses into £10m. Even if this figure is correct it is a lot of money.
The market cap of Angus at present is about £10m and when they start gas prodution soon this number will be perfect for them to offset their revenue tax.

Roughly speaking:
Shares in issue and market capitalisation of Angus are 1 billion and £30m respectively.
Also shares in issue and market capitalisation of AAOG are 1/2 billion and £42m respectively.
divide (30m+42m/1.5b you get 4.8p share price for the newly formed company. The existing share price for Angus is about 1.0p and for AAOG 0p now.

Highlight of RMP relisting:
1) share consolidaing 100 to 14.
2) No market capitalisation yet.
3) No shares in issue yet.
4) Only those who averaged down will be in profit at the begining.
5) To sell at the begining is questioable.
The above may or may not apply to AAOG.