Member Info for petroleum1

HIT: Thanks for the information
....[hedge obligations (... being c. 3.4 mmscfd Jul-Sep, then ramping up to well over 5.1 mmscfd for the next 9 months before dropping back again)]
The Saltfleetby reservoir gas flowrate before shut in was 67mmscfd/day.
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Saltfleetby-Gas-Field-Dec19.pdf
Also Angus said the reservoir pressure built up slightly over the shut in period. For a gas reservoir with good transmissibility this will translate into a higher flosrate than reported above. Looking a the reservoir map you see a lot of faultings and this could explain the rise in reservoir pressure over the shut in period due to isolated portions of the resevoir. So raising the flowrate by sidetracking existing wells or drilling new wells is quite feasible.
If I work for management I would advise agaist selling the field and keeping it all to themselves and shareholders.

If AAOG is combined with SEM they will be a winning combination no matter what happen to ANGS.
SEM owns 49% of Saltfleetby gas reservoir.
If Angs succeeds in flowing the resevoir every one will happy.
If ANGS is sold the new owner will have to develope the reservoir.
If ANGS fail to deliver and the hedge fund takeover they have to develope the reservoir.
So in all scenarios AAOG and SEM will not loose.
I remember that in the past year there was a thought to reverse 1/2 SEM reservoir in AAOG to get the latter to trade but the idea was abandoned.

There are companies in London and everywhere else whose job is to look for financialy distressed companies. They offer to bail them out and in the process they end up owning them or stripping off some of their assets. I think that Forrest being an accountant know this fact and this is why he split Saltfleetby reservoir into two companes, Angus and Saltfleetby Energy . I am an engineer and not an accountant and I hope that Angus will survive.

OofyProsser

Not sure if AAOG case will be similar to that of Petroceltic International case.

Petroceltic international violated the rules of Investment funds some twenty years ago. The latter took them to court and managed to own the company. Here is an extract from Wikepedia:
"The Company's shares were delisted on the AIM of the London stock exchange and the ESM of the Irish Stock exchange following a process of examinership, approved by the High Court of Ireland. The company is now a private company owned by Investment Funds under the management of Worldview Capital Management Limited."

irishmouse
You are talking about a gas reservoir whose net asset value is:
NPV P90= £213.5m
NPV P50=£376.75m
Plus other assets.
By lending £12m only in return for taking over all these assets, I would say everybody wants it.
I t has been said that Forrest may have other backers. I f he did , would he be in such predicament. I t would be nightmare senario if the recent placing went to the lenders themselves.

mmafr
RMP was an oil and gas small cap co in Greenland. After it went bust due to drilling a dry hole It relisted as FME, a miner in Australia after 2 yrs suspension.

Also I am going to watch the situation after first gas and see whether I should increase my investment in AAOG. I have already averaged down 4 times in the past and final average is 2.2p.

OofyProsser
In short , the way I see it is that AAOG has £42m in tax benefit and this is alot of many for any company. This had made the company to be taken away and hidden for two years so that it can be used now. RMP in the same situation and I recovered one third of my investment so far. I am still waiting to recover my investment from AAOG. Apart from hedge restriction I see this is a better investment than that of RMP.

Irish
Good post . It does not look like we will be loosing our investment in AAOG. What I would like to know is whether I should keep my investment running or sell and get my money back. For this reason I would like to know why they need compressor on wellsite. They do not mention wellhead pressure exept that it had built up slightly over the shutdown period.

OofyProsser
I disagree it is pump and dump. The hedge fund would not have given them £12m to spend. Also SOU would not have made an offer of 1.4p. Besides Saltfleetby reservoir was flowing for years prior to forced shutdown due to downstream reasons and not upstream causes.

What is the actual worth of Angus share price?
CPR values on 26th Oct when gas price was 64p/therm was:
NPV P90 = £31.7m
NPV P50 = £55.4m
But the gas price has risen since then. If we take a gas price of 220 p/therm now the above NAV's
for Angus become as follows:
NPV P90 = £108.9m
NPV P50 = £192.15m
So as Angus total shares in issue is 1093m, the value of the share price for the above two cases becomes:
Share price for NPV P90 = 108.9mx100/1093m=9.96p
Share price for NPV P50 = 192.15mx100/1093m=17.58p
So SOU offer of 1.4p per share is not good.
As mentioned before the hedge fund may take over the field if Angus fails to deliver. So may be putting Angus for sale is a safe guards aganst this .

I was going to buy BP after the recent fall but I was discouraged by the following Yahoo article of yesterday posted on Google finance today:
https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/tesco-vs-bp-cheap-ftse-100642811.html

Natural gas price trend is upward since original CPR was made.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas

OofyProsser
With the existing CPR values based on gas price of 220p/therm, raising finance to remove the hedge should not be a problem.

OofyProsser
Original CPR numbers were based on gas price of 64p/therm at the time. The CPR numbers I calculated are based on existing gas price of 220p/therm.

correction.......
In my previous post I reported Angus share of 51% only under the thread headingTotal Assets for the saltfleetby gas reservoir:
The Angus share of 51%:
P90 = £108.9m
P50 = £192.15m
While the SEMshare of 49% is:
P90=£104.6m
P50=£184.6m
Therefore to correct the number for the whole field you add Angus share of 51% to SEM share of 49%.
The total assets for the field will be:
P90= £213.5m
P50=£376.75
You also add AAOG tax allowance of £42m and Angus £17m. Also Lidsey and Brokham value to be added.
If this not Mid Cap enterprise, what is?
Any one is welcome to sheck the figures above.

I will still not post anymore until the picture become more clear.

The title of the thread is total assets, therefore I will include SEM share of 49%

OofyProsser

Sound Energy, a small player, surely must know all those problems you have highlighted and yet they made an accepted offer. I beleive the management when they say there are four more bidders to come. Angus said they can come out of the hedge anytime and who ever buy the company can provide (loan) the hedge value of £12m.

At this stage anything one say will speculation and I will stop posting until the picture become much clearer.

SOU market cap is £35m and they already made an unacceptable offer for ANGS. A hedge of £12
is not that much.

If you combine all these assets this will become Mid Cap company. All you need to do is to emove the hedge. There must be somebody who is able to that.

I hope I am doing this corretly.
From Oct26th CPR the assets of the SGF gas fieldwas assets were reported s follows:
P90 sum of future cashflows to Angus of £31.7 million
P50, sum of future cashflows to Angus of £55.9 million
But these data were based on gas price of 64p/therm. On last Friday the gas price passed 220p/therm. So the above numbers becomes as follows:
P90 31.7x220/64= £108.9
P50 55.9x220/64= £192.15
You add AAOG tax allowance of £42m and Angus £17m. Also Lidsey and Brokham value t be added.
The final share price will depend the final nmber shares in ciculation.