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If the Saltfleetby flows at 8mmscf/d for 3 months, I calculated the profit to be £27m from the unhedged production only. If you add to that the profit from the hedged production the result will be company changing event. With this money they do not have to drill side track . They can go and drill a new onshore well in a better lacation or they can use it in other venture. All of this is attributed to high gas price.

OofyProsser
Your contribution to these board is greatly appreciated. You are adding information and opinions that make this board one of the best.
May I inform you that I have spent my working life developing hydrocarbon reservoirs both in the North Sea and abroad. The reason I am hoping Saltfleetby become a success is that I was heavily invested in AAOG and its success depend on Saltfleetby success. Also can I point out that the development plan for the reservoir was made when the gas price was 64p. The gas pric now is nearly 10 times higher. My only aim is that I hope people do not make the wrong decision which result in them loosing money.

(There is no editing fascilities on LSE board so I am reposting the previous post)
Angus can pays off the £12m loan from revenues during the firs 40 days of production:
Data used:
- Reservoir flow rate 8 mmscf/d
-Gas price £6.36/therm
-One therm is equivalent to 100 scf

The amount of gas hedged during Jul-Sep range is3.34-3.45 mmscf/d. As we are assuming a gas flowrate of 8 mmscf/d,the remaining unhedged volume together with monthly profit is reported below:
Month Hedged Unhedged Revenue
volune volume £m
mmscf/d mmscf/d
July 3.34 4.66 9.19
Aug 3.34 4.66 9.19
Sep 3.45 4.65 8.89
--------
Total 27.27
To assume a gas flowrate of 8 mmscf/d is not unreasonable due to:
1) Extended period of reservoir shut in and subsequent pressure build up
2) Copressors problems resolved with the new equipment.

The above gas price used in the calculation is out of date.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas

Angus can pays off the £12m loan from revenues during the firs 40 days of production:
Data used:
- Reservoir flow rate 8 mmscf/d
-Gas price £6.36/therm
-One therm is equivalent to 100 scf

The amount of gas hedged during Jul-Sep range is3.34-3.45 mmscf/d. As we are assuming a gas flowrate of 8 mmscf/d,the remaining unhedged volume together with monthly profit is reported below:
Month Hedged Unhedged Revenue
volune volume £m
mmscf/d mmscf/d
July 3.34 4.66 9.19
Aug 3.34 4.66 9.19
Sep 3.45 4.65 8.89
--------
Total 27.27
To assume a gas flowrate of 8 mmscf/d is not unreasonable due to:
1) Extended period of reservoir shut in and subsequent pressure build up
2) Copressors problems resolved with the new equipment.

The above gas price used in the calculation is out of date.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas

OofyProsser
I thought I read in the Angus wesite Q/A section that the company can teminate the Hedge agreement at anytime. I am expecting Angus themselves can pay the £12 loan from unhedged gas flowrate during Jul,Aug and Sep. The hedged gas flowrate for the three months is 3.34,3.34 and 3.45 mmscf/d respectively while the actual field flowrate will be much higher due to reservoir pressure build up and new gas compressors..

Also
Q/
Can capital losses be carried forward indefinitely UK?
A/
........ If you have an unused capital loss, this can be carried forward indefinitely against gains of future years.

MrEMC2
RMP was cancelled from trading from AIM on 19th May 2021 .It reappeared as FME on 21st Oct 2021. I have shares in this co.
When googling tax losses carried forward:
Q/
How many years can tax losses be carried forward UK?
A/
You do not have to report losses straight away - you can claim up to 4 years after the end of the tax year that you disposed of the asset.

I am not sure I can answer this question.

MrEMC2
From Dec 2019 presentation,the following was extracted:
“12.7 BCF should be recoverable from 2 remaining wells in production during the following 12 years.”
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Saltfleetby-Gas-Field-Dec19.pdf
Assuming a gas price of £5.4/therm, the value of the above gas would be:
12.7BCFx5.4/100 =£685.8m
The £42m tax allowance can be used with either ANGS, SEL or both.
But the problem here is that ANGS had already sold their gas for this year at reduced value due to hedge agreement. What is needed here is to abolish the hedge agreement altogether by paying them the £12m that ANGS had borrowed. As ANGS management are expert in accountancy they should come to realize that the existing arrangement is not a good one.
If one of those bidders in the data room pay off the £12 to the hedge fund they can combine ANGS,SEL,AAOG and themselves into one company and everyone will do well including the hedge fund who will get 8% royalty.
Note:
The optimistic case indicates a production of 18 BCF over 12 years.

The gas price now is £4.50/therm.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
My calculations show that the loan of £12m can be repaid in 42 days
at a gas flowrate of 6 mmscf/d. I am certain the field can flow at much higher
flowrate than above. It will not make sense if some one do not pay off this loan. The only
risk here is Angus fails to meet Hedge fund obligations otherwise it is an excellent
buying opportunity. Onsite work progress seems to be progressing well..........

Although I have been a shareholder for 10 years in UJo I am new here and I intend to increase my holding due to sustained high oil price for the foreseeable future. Can some one explain why the well is on reduced setting to flow at only 500 bopd and why it could flow at 1500 bopd in the future.

Interesting information by DoneK on Angus board.
".....The lenders technical advisers and Angus evaluated the deliverability of the existing two wells as being likely to be greater than 5 mmscfd. The reasoning was twofold. In the last years of delivery to the old Conoco refinery, average production was constrained by persistent issues with the main compressor at Theddlethorpe. Secondly it was the view of technical experts that, following a prolonged shut-in, the two wells should have improved deliverability in the first 18 months or so of operations. This is because prior to shut in there was an area of reduced pressure around the producing wells. Since then the pressure has equilibrated across the field resulting in significantly higher pressure around the producers. So it is our view that the hedged production should be able to be covered by these two wells in the event of failure of the sidetrack"

I forgot to include the gas proce plot
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas

Gas price has so far shot up to £3.10/therm.
I am certain that Saltfleetby gas rservoir will flow at higher gas flowrate than 6 mmscf/d when put on stream. But if we assume a gas flowrate of 6 mmscf/d, The loan amount of $12m can be paid off in less than 64 days.
12x10m/(6m/100)x3.1=64 days. One them is equivalent to 100 scf.
Those people in the data room knows that and we could hear some news shortly of the traders loan being thrown out of the windows.

PeaceyA
There is no reason why you should loose your investment in AAOG. It carry a tax allowance of £42m which can be used by any company. I am hoping it will be used by Saltfleetby enegy (SEM).
I give you an example :
Red emperor oil co went bust two years ago by drilling a dry hole in Greenland and was delisted.
They relisted recently as a mining co. called Future metals. I am getting my money back gradually as the following plot show:
https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/chrt/chrt_wrap.php?epic=LSE%3Afme&name=&type=1&size=2&period=1&ind_type1=1&ind_type2=0&ind_type3=0

OofyProsser
I said in post 113 “ Hedge fund obligation is 3.5 mmscfd/d and this can be met for a long long time if the reservoir gas flowrate is throttled down just to meet the obligation requirement.

You disagreed and said in post 5440 “… if they produce just the volume of gas required to meet the hedges, they’re extremely unlikely to be able to meet the interest/capital repayment schedule on their amortising loan.”

But when I calculated the no of days required to generate £1.5m from flowing gas at a rate of 3.5 mmscf/d I found it is 19 days only. (assuming 1 therm price is £2.2 and is equivalent to 100 scf ).

So there is no reason why they cannot make a success out of this project.

Can you please explain why a default by Angus will affect Saltfleetby Energy (SEM)as the latter being the guarantor to Angus.

As I said before this is the best bulletin board in the world and I thank the contributers
who made as such.
If I may add some information to this board:
HIT said the following:"Theddlethorpe processing plant, so those should be discounted) show an average equivalent daily production rate of around 4.2 mmscfd.". But looking at Dec 2019 presentation The gas flowrate was 6 mmscfd/d after a shutdown period of 3 months only (01.09.2017-01.12.2027).

https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Saltfleetby-Gas-Field-Dec19.pdf

Now that the reservoir has been shut down for 5 years and due to the comparmentlsed nature of the reservoir the gas flowrate should be a lot higher. Angus reported an a small increase in reservoir pressure in (Question and Answer)section. For a gas reservoir with high transmissibility this should translate in higher flowrate. Hedge fund obligation is 3.5 mmscfd/d and this can be met for a long long time if the reservoir gas flowrate is throttled down just to meet the obligation requirement. This will give ample time for Angus to accelerate drillimg or workove activities to meet the next obligation of 5.1 mmscf/d.
May I also say that I am not a shareholder in Angus and my main interest is AAOG who I have been a shareholder for 3 years.

ZaphodBeeblebrox
This presentation (I found thrpogh th internet) to develope Saltfleetby gas reservoir was made in Dec 2019 when gas price was 50p/therm. Now it is above 200p/therm.
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Saltfleetby-Gas-Field-Dec19.pdf
They are talking about a field life of 10-12 years from now. The reason for the field shutdown was the shutdown of the terminal downstream. Now they are bypassing this terminal by placing 800 m long pipe to connect to the main national grid. They are also talking about a comparmentalsed reservoir through faulting and further drilling and workovers and sidetracking to develope the reservoir are needed. They need money to develope the reservoir and a hedge fund gave them £12m. I cannot see why they cannot get more money from other sources.

correction: flowrate above 3.2 mmscf/d should read flowrate above 5.1 mmscf/d.

What I can see is that they may need money after 3-5 months of production to sidetrack wells or
drill new shallow wells 7500ft deep(not so expensive, onshore) to keep the flowrate above 3.5 mmscf/d.

Apology .. The 67 bcf is cummulative production. I apologise.