Member Info for petroleum1

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62604653
Interesting llink. Uk has much less storage caacity than anybody else. Rough field had shown leakage to surroundind areas . In my view this could be attributed to overpressurizing( cant take any more gas to store ) or rupture in the seal.
SFB is cheap to co convert to storage being onshore. I understand that some £2.5billion is being allocated to upgrade the Rough system.

OofyProsser
Dont understad the question

01012
01012

1- I do not hold shaes in Angus. I was was going to buy some at 0.6-0.8 p but put off by some posts that warns against insolvency and bankruptcy. However I am still watching to see when I can buy in.
2- I hold shares in AAOG that the Congolese pull the plugs on it 3 years ago and now they are owned by Mr Forest who is a member of Angus board of directors. AAOG carries £42m tax allowable revenue that can be used for Angus future tax allowance. Mr Forest could have reversed AAOG in any revenue producing entity 2-3 years ago but did not. This is why I think AAOG will combine with Angus.
3- If and when I become Angus share holder I will keep my shares for the long run.

A CPR study was carried out for Angus 51% interest on 26th Oct 2021 when gas price was 64p/therm :
Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Reserves-Valuation-Report.pdf (angusenergy.co.uk)
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Reserves-Valuation-Report.pdf
The NPV values were reported in pages 56 and 57 and appended below:
NPV P90 = £31.7m
NPV P50 = £55.9m
As the gas price now is 526 p/therm
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
The above NPV values for Angus 51% interest were recalculated to be:
NPV P90 = £260m
NPV P50 = £455m
IBy adding SEL(Saltfleet Energy Ltd) share of 49%, the NPV for whole Saltfleetby field will be:
NPV P90 = £387m
NPV P50 = £678m
As Angus share in issue now is 2590 m
The expected share price for Angus:
P90 = 387x100 /2590 = 14.9 p
P60 = 678 x100/2590 = 26.2 p

OofyProsser
To me ,as a reservoir engineer, drilling successfully a sidetrack in a a reservoir with 19 years of history is straight forward job. Why do they have to mothball the plant while drilling the sidetrack miles away is incomprehensible.
If they manage to start the gas flow now I do not foresee any problem with the gas price so high. One poster on the other site was mentioning water cut as a killer but the post was deleted. Water cut in gas reservoir will not stop the well from flowing but will give problems at commissioning.

HITS
You are talking about Q1 and Q2.
The sidetrack will give you another 5mmscf/d (1.5 m therm/month, 4.6m therm/qtr), before Q1 and Q2 arrive. It is an onshore drill that will cost a fraction of similar offshore operation.

WG818
At the top of the CPR , a plot of gas rate mmscf/d vs time shows a flowrate of 5 mmscf/d for many years. As for the wellhead pressure a recent RNS reported a well head pressure of 80+ bar (1176+psi). In the companys Q/A they reported slight pressure change since shut in.

HITS
The CPR showed the flowrate of SFB for more than 3 years prior to shut in in 2017 was about 5 mmscf/d. The well head pressure was and is 1176 psi.
As one therm is equivalent to 100 scf, the steady MONTHLY rate of therm production is:
5 mmx30/100 = 1.5 mm
It is incorrect to assume that the flowrate will fall below the hedge requirements.
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Saltfleetby-Gas-Field-Dec19.pdf

Irishmouse
You will be a rich man if AAOG is combined with ANGS.
When the last CPR was made the gas price was 64p/therm. Now the gas price is 490p/therm.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
All evidence indicate that the preesent gas price will shoot up yet again when the winter season arrive.
Mr Forest could have reversed AAOG into any trading entity two years ago but he did not.
It is all quite now and no one knows what will happen next. I will not be surprised if the UK government do not get involved if not for the gas for this winter but for the gas storage possibilities of SFB. Rough gas storage is not an ideal place to store gas as there was some evidence in the past of gas leaks to surrounding areas around Rough reservoir.
Note: The production profile supplied in the CPR was based on reservoir simulation study carried out by the original owner assuming a wellhead pressure of 90 psi. If this pressure is decreased to say 50 psi the flowrate could increase siginificantly.

I bought £30,000 worth of shares in RMP(Red Emperror) some 2 ears ago. They went bust and the company re-emerged as FME(Future Metals) soon afterward. Total trading history is shown below:
https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/chrt/chrt_wrap.php?epic=LSE%3AFME&name=&type=1&size=2&period=12&ind_type1=1&ind1_1=&ind2_1=&ind_type2=0&ind1_2=&ind2_2=&ind_type3=0&ind1_3=&ind2_3=
John Forest could have done similar thing 2 years ago but he did'nt. He can still do it now before next prime minister election next month. Can we share holders sign a petition asking for ths to be expedited?

OofyProsser

CPR values on 26th Oct for Angus only when gas price was 64p/therm was:
NPV P90 = £31.7m
NPV P50 = £55.4m
I believe that the above values are reported in RNS.
As the gas price now is 408p/therm the above NPV values for Angus only are calculated as follows:
NPV P90 = £202m
NPV P50 = £353m
If you add SEM share of 49%, the NPV for Saltfleetby field will be:
NPV P90 = £301m
NPV P50 = 526m

Angus shares in issue 2590 m
At a gas price of 359p/therm, the NPV was calculated to be £408m.
Therefore the expected share price at a gas price of 359p/therm will be £408 /2590m = 15.75 p.
But the gas price today is 408p/therm.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
Therefore the expected share pprice to exceed 15.75p.

On Angus board some people accuse management of fraud and say SFB will not flow.
SFB was flowing at 5 mmscf/d prior to shutting in in 2017.
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Saltfleetby-Gas-Field-Dec19.pdf
The reseevoir pressure at that time was 1400 psi (95+ bars) from the plot of P/Z vs Cumulative production. If you subtract the the pressure of the hydroststic column of 2300m (reservoi depth) you get a wellhead pressure of 80+ bars as reported by recent RNS. There is no reason why SFB will not flow at 5 mmsc/d when put on streaam now.

It does not look like we are dead in the water.

"Polls suggest Liz Truss is most likely to become the next prime minister"
https://news.sky.com/story/the-tory-leadership-race-might-seem-a-foregone-conclusion-but-its-much-more-complicated-than-that-12665134
Ex presedential hopefuls are now behind Liz Rruss such as Penny Moerdaunt, Javid Javis etc...
Long live AAOG.

The last paragraph of Angus today RNS said the following:
"As a precautionary measure, the Company has worked with its hedge provider to roll a portion of the Q3 2022 hedge into Q1 and Q2 of 2023."
I see this that the company will not be liquidated by Mercura anytime soon..

The gas price now is 359p/therm
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
The NPV was £250m for a gas price of 220p
The new NPV is 359/220 X250 = £408m
SFB is more than a Mid Cap company.

Forest sold 49% stake of SEM and got 21% stake in the combined entity in SFB and some cash.

Did'nt Forest who is on the board of directors receive cash from Angus £4-5 for combining AAOG with ANGS?

In this reservoir one can easly calculate how much gas can be recovered using a simple Boyl's Law:
PV=ZRT
But no need to do that. The CPR of 2021 put out production profile as calculated by the original owner using reservoir simulation ie digitization the reservoir on the computer.
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Reserves-Valuation-Report.pdf

OofyProsser
Thanks for the informations.
1)
"you need more than a few days’ data from a new or newly-reopened well to establish a reliable pressure."
This is applicable only to new reservoir and not to SFB where you have 15 years of production history.
2)
An NPV of £250m at a gas price of £2.2/therm indicate Angus is a mid cap company. Gas price future trend can be seen here.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
3)
With a gas pressure of 1176 psi you do not need to worry too much about the hedge. They can increase production to much higher level and make good profit.
4)
Combining AAOG tax losses of £42 into Angus future production seem the natural thing to do. The honorable lady Truss is consolidating her lead in PM election. She is with tax cut and against tax increase to stimulate growth.
5)
I am hoping a buying oppurtunity will arise in the future as I am expecting share cosolidation to take place after start of production.