The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
The gas flowrate today is 7.007mmscf/d. Yesterday the gas flowrate was 6.060 mmscf/d. The field flowrate is not falling due to depletion.
Singhie
This article was published recently and it praised Brexit. The first two sentence reads:
[The UK is now Europe's top destination in start-up venture capital, new research has indicated - with Kemi Badenoch hailing the news as a "massive vote of confidence" in Brexit Britain."
Not only is Britain outstripping every nation in the EU27 - it also comes in third in the world, with only the USA and China attracting more cash.]
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/kemi-badenoch-hails-massive-brexit-win-as-uk-trounces-every-eu-nation-in-remainer-blow/ar-AA1iL2NX?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=5aef5baefc1e4e91b114c47089c2d251&ei=4
Can you please state your views regarding this article to this board ?
Singhie
The flowrate you are reporting every day of around 8.25 mmscf/d for the last 3 months do not seem to show a decline. Also the P90 reserves reported in the CPR ranges between 82-120 bcf (pressure vs cum production). The CPR gives this in page 38
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Reserves-Valuation-Report.pdf
Is it possible you can provide this flowrate in a table form or a plot for the last 3 months.
Being a compartmentalzed reservoir the reserves could go higher.
BP
Page 20 in the CPR shows the reservoir is compartmentalized,
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Reserves-Valuation-Report.pdf
This could explain the rise in gas production rate after a period of shutting. As gas have high transmissibility compartmentalzation is not as detrimental as that if it was an oil reservoir.
Day Flowrate
Sept mmscf
1 5..83
2 7.9905
3 8.043
4 8.197
There was some discussion in the past that there might be an extension to the resevoir. The best way to find out is to keep the reservoir flowing and observe the pressure decline.
Baits
When you do a multi rate flow test you have to let the flow rate flow for sometime to get stabilization other wise you will not get good results. They need to get permeability , faulting and boundary location etc...
Ocelot
You said (regarding 88e):
"Seen it before, money coming out of 88E and going straight into another AIM-listed O&G stock."
If they are so exited why do not they flow test now. I t will take 24 hrs to find if the reservoir can deliver. An average porosity of 11% is not very exiting. This will reflect into permeability and and consequently flowing ability of the reservoir. Regards
1)Well flowrate depend on the flow capacity (KH) where :
K = reservoir rock permeability
H = wellbore length open to flow
As the sidetrack has doubled the H (from 200mto 400m) the vertical well flowrate should double as well.
2) This sidetrack is located in the most permeable part of the reservoir hence the flowrate should be good.
Being a horizontal well bottom water will take a long time to reach wellbore than a vertical well. This will ensure a long time of water free production
From Angus power point presentation 2021 (page 44)
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Reserves-Valuation-Report.pdf
The Production Profile (mmscf/d) for 2 wells and a sidetrack was reported as follows:
P90 P50
2021 0.0 0.0
2022 7.71 7.71
2023 9.81 9.81
2024 9.81 9.81
2025 8.42 9.81
2026 4.94 9.53
2027 3.39 8.17
This look to me as doubling of the existing flowrate from the two wells.
Push2 said:
"They are already considering the southern Lobe for a new side track to explore the potential further extent of the reservoir."
The 300m therm reserves that GL reported was P90. P60 is a lot higher. As the field was recently shut in for 3 years this will give an excellent oppurtunity to study the intercommunication between different parts of the reservoir and help them into the next stage of field development.
Push2
Thanks for the reply. I am expecting when the two compressors are put on stream together
the two old wells B2 and A4 will produce a combined flowrate of around 7-8 mmscf/d(0.2 -0.22 mmscum/d). This will hopefully solve the financialproblems of the company.
Singhie
Company Power point presentation Dec 2019 reported:
Well A4 flowed 4 mmscf/d at 55 bar(808 psi) and well B2 4.5 mmscf/d at 45 bar(661psi).
The total flowrate 4 +4.5 = 8.5 mmscf/d. To convert it mmcum/d you divide by 35 = 0.243 mmcum/d.
I have never seen you reporting anywhere close to this number. There must be a bottle neck soewhere. The average number you report is around 0.165 mmcum/d. Regards and thanks
Tygra: Thanks for an excellent reply. If the company is desperate for cash I expect they would do it.
I posted before the following:
“ placing the procesing plant close to wellheads in the field instead of Thudlethorp allows the wells to flow against lower wellhead pressure and this will result in higher well flowrates.”
But it is feared that this could disturbe the wells and may cause damage to the reservoir.
Being a gas reservoir with high transmissibility (due to gas viscosity) the pressure drop across sand face is very low and should not cause any damage to the reservoir. If this is an oil reservoir it could create gas saturation at the sand face and damage to productivity.
So I think they can go ahead and work the two compressors at the same time. This may allay fears of another placing.
So by placing the procesing plant close to wellheads in the field instead of Thudlethorp you are allowingthe wells to flow against lower wellhead pressure and this will result in higher well flowrates.
Push2
I have not worked on gas reservoirs but I think it is easier to calculate gas reserves using simple Boyles law PV = RT than oil reserves which is much more complicated.
From Power point presentation Dec 2019
PowerPoint Presentation (angusenergy.co.uk)
Well A4 flowed 4 mmscf/d at 55 bar(808 psi) and well B2 4.5 mmscf/d at 45 bar(661psi).
Thel wellhead pressure at closed in was 80+bar(1176 psi)’
Prior to 2017 the gas was sent from SFB to Theddlthorp terminal via 10” and 8.5 km pipeline to be processed before exporting to nationl grid. The gas was mixed with water amd condensate which could have hindered the flow to gas and possible problems to processing at Tuddlethorp terminal.
Now the gas is processed at the field itself and only gas is piped via the 10” pipeline straight to Natioal grid.
The reservoir pressure has reduced by 2700 pssi from initial status of 4200 psi.
Now only two wells only are flowing A4 and B2.
Angus reported:
* There are low risk drilling opportunities. With many parts of the field left undrilled – nearby infill drilling is relatively low risk.
* Faulting evident leaving good chance of further prospectivity in untapped blocks - providing new drilling opportunities.
Can Angus do all above which involve workovers and new drilling considering the hedge obligations?
With the 2nd compressor installed and the sidetrack completed. Angus will be flowing enough gas to meet hedge obligation and make good profit. There is no reason why they can’t.
GL said the P90 resources is 300m therm. If you subtract the hedged therms of 52.125m you end up with 247.8 m therm unhedged. Today gas price 106.9 p per therm and 3.46b shares in circulation, the expected share price would be = 247.8 m X 106.9/3.46b = 7.6 p
Note: The effect of capital expenditure and running cost must be subtracted.
Mr Forest sold most of his shares in SFB (49%) to Angus for chicken feed and now he is buying back 60,606,061 shares of Angus for £1m. Does this indicate that the sidetrack may have shown GAS CUTTING in mud return?
JODO
What I am about to say could be rubbish but I am going to say n it any way.
Forest keep selling few millions shates on regular basis to keep Angus shares price down
so that when he sell AAOG shares (with £42m tax allowance) to Angus he gets more Angus shares for it. If this is the case he and GL should hurry up and complete the transaction before Rishi Sonak comes to PM office where he will abolish all that as he stated before.
I am not a share holder but fell i should post the following:
Angus reported in their Power point presentation of 2019
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Saltfleetby-Gas-Field-Dec19.pdf
the following:
"- There is low risk drilling opportunities. With many parts of the field left undrilled – nearby infill drilling is relatively low risk.
- Faulting evident leaving good chance of further prospectivity in untapped blocks - providing new drilling opportunities."
I do not know if the location of the 2nd sidetrack to correspond with the second part above.