Member Info for petroleum1

Tiburn
On Zenith board it was said that TW(Tom Winifrith) said that Zenith had lost Tilapia
on 4th July according to some document his daughter had translated. But you must know that this chap has his own agenda.

As Highlander47 did not reply to my question regarding his views on Zenith I thought it may be useful to repost here his views on Zenith board which was posted yesterday.
"
1) I do not accept that AC is an amazing negotiator, what has he got in Congo for shareholders £200k? A licence that has come to and end, now in a competitive tender situation, with an uncertain outcome. And, up against some stiff competition with people who have money and technical expertise.
2) There is no incumbent licence over Tilapia it has expired with all rights as of the end date of 18th July.
3) The deal that he negotiated came with unnecessary liabilities
4) $5.3m is highly disputed by SNPC
5) Azer is a mess.
6) Tunisia transfer of ownership so far not approved.
7) My agenda back in December/January was with a different plan.

Hope this helps."

Highlander47
If I remember correctly you said in the past that AAOG do not have the technical people to develop Tilapia and they would be glad to give up the licence to some one else. Is this still your views now? Why would the Congolese govt give Tilapia to Zenith to develop when any major Co
will be willing to do that? This is not meant to imply that you support Zenith but rather to hear your views on the present situation.

"Tiburn I appreciate the effort to do the research and write this down for us. You make very good analysis of the current situation and potential in here. I am heavily invested so hope it comes good for us all.
Best to all" hand-some
I second that.
Also I do not think that Tiburn is related to AC, Congoleese government, SNPC or anyone else.
What you have here is (nearly) proved undeveloped oil field made by AAOG and every one want it and they will say and do everything towards that. Zenith say they have got the expertise that no one has to develope the field yet workover in Kaz is not the same as explatory
directional drilling in Congo etc. So the contribution that Tiburn is making is valuable to us all shareholders.

If Zenith manages to get a licence renewal within the next 2-4 wks I will be the first to invest
heavily in the stock Zenith. This is not a ramp. Actually they could flow the Mengo and the R's now
using Schlumberger wireline perforator but they have not done that so far.
SNPC and AAOG spent the money on 103 and 103C well and did not flow Mengo. I guess it is a question
of initial capital.

"The reason he's ditched the Mengo now (at vast expense to company stakeholders) is because he knew perfectly well that it was not a commercial prospect."MrAim
Zenith in their new website are planning to flow the Mengo now at 273 bopd. Flowing the Djeno will
be done later.

"can they not use investment losses to offset investment gains in their tax bill?"Rastuss
A part from the £500, 000 that FORUM will loose, AAOG losses are in AAOG name and not in FORUM name. So how can you reclaim those losses? In my view you have to keep AAOG alive.

Shares in issue are 467m. The share price after RTO will depend on the value of assets reversed
into AAOG. If these assets are worth £20m then the share price will be £20m/467m= 4.28 p . The
share price will increase as the value of the reversed assets increases. I have averaged down from 10 to 2.5 p and cannot see how I will not be able to get my money back. To utilise all the tax allowance more than £20m may be needed.

Zenith Market Cap is only £6 m and for them to own Tilapia can be good thing. This money
that they have just raised in Norway can be a prelude to get more money to develop the
field. Also Gulf states already showed their financial support for Zenith. So it may not a bad idea
to own both AAOG and ZEN. The only snag I see is that the Tilapia licence will not be renewed after
next month by Congo government.

Tiburn
In Zenith new official website I have seen Miton bought 26,514,979 shares in Zenith on 29th May. Does this mean Zenith will develop Tilapia?
https://www.zenithenergy.ca/

Tiburn
These tax losses are applicable to Congo and therefore they must run a business within Congo
that will generate turnover that will benefit from these tax losses. So perhaps they are negotiating with
the government on this business type and scope. Is that right?

Takeyourbets
The sale of Tilapia to ZEN was between AAOG and ZEN and the government had nothing to do with it.
It was originally agreed for £1 m but then reduced to £200k. Why? The government did not collaborate
with AAOG in the past. Why would they collaborate now with ZEN who raise capital by placements of shares. Tilapia is a valuable field and a lot of other companies will pay a big price to own it and develop it.

harrizma
I think the problem here is that the market need to see the green light from government
for ZEN to proceed and I do not think it is a good idea for this bulletin board to be talking
about brown envelope or signature bonus.

Zenith(share price 0.85p) has a nearly proved undeveloped field
at their possession. Why will they have a problem in raising money? There will not be
shortage of investors.
The following article was dated 3 April 2020. In it Arab consortium of strategic institutional investors
showed their support for Zenith.
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1585905989812869600/zenith-energy-signs-usd2-million-investment-to-help-growth-after-buys.aspx

This share is worth £50m in tax losses to Forum. So it would be worth £50m/467m= 10.7p to Forum, 467m being the shares in issue. If I am Forum I would not sell at 0.5p to get my money back, but rather build the share up to get a multiple of 15-20.

Highlander47
"It’s not a perforation job. Could not be done in time left on licence.
Still no approval fro SSNP-Minister."Highlander47
If this is in doubt then £200k payment by ZEN to AAOG will also be in doubt.
I think I will delay buying into ZEN for the time being.

As for the assets I have no doubts that the oil is there and require investment to produce it. That
almost place the reserves into proved undeveloped.

Highlander47
Zenith can go tomorrow and perforate the Mengo, like they said they will do and produce 800 bopd.
These liabilities can then be paid off in no time.

ZEN has just bought Tilapia for £200m and their share price has not moved. WHY?

Have just averaged down. The way I see it is that FORUM will not throw away an oil field with
(almost) proved undeveloped reserves that require more funds to be invested with a well potential of
4000 bopd for some mining operation somewhere else.