RE: Business model questioned16 Nov 2020 10:49
Many thanks for your well thought responses. I suppose the passage that most concerns me is....
"Electrolyzer costs too have been plummeting – with learning rates of just under 20% per doubling of capacity, similar to wind energy. There are still plenty of remaining pathways to reduce costs, and as the industry scales we will most certainly see electrolyzer costs come down. But there is a wrinkle. The EU Hydrogen Strategy wants to drive electrolyzers “from 900 euros per kW to 450 euros/kW or less in the period after 2030”. Leading Chinese manufacturers, however, are already supplying equipment at $200/kW ...
"Chinese producers benefit from cheaper raw materials and labor, but they have also focused on the more established alkaline electrolyzers. These, conventional wisdom used to say, don’t like to ramp up and down to follow peaks and troughs in electricity demand and supply. As a result, the EU, expecting electrolyzers to be powered by variable renewable energy, focused development for the better part of a decade on solid oxide and proton exchange membrane (PEM) technologies, the latter able to ramp up and down within tenths of a second. These are more expensive than alkaline and are still far behind in scale – and it turns out alkaline electrolyzers can also be designed to load-follow, albeit a little slower. Can the EU catch up with Chinese electrolyzer costs? Probably not. Can it hit its cost targets without doing so? Probably not.
"The very idea of using surplus renewable energy to generate hydrogen will turn out to be, on the whole, a mirage. It might make sense for an island grid, but not when it comes to a highly connected, continent-scale energy system. Here, the only thing that matters is to produce the cheapest green hydrogen possible, or you will be outcompeted by producers using the lowest-cost renewable electricity at high capacity factors, delivering via pipeline.