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https://www.ft.com/content/b2507c4b-fc61-426a-8f55-d68750fed2cf
"Cineworld and its main lenders are putting final touches to a restructuring support agreement, which will outline how the debt-cutting plan and a new rights offering will work, as well as set out the current management team’s responsibilities during the transition. "
a new rights offering should be positive right?
Can anyone paste the article? im not subbed
(but i think its the same or similar to what i posted a couple days back: https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/cineworld-creditors-plan-management-shuffle-amid-takeover-interest-bloomberg-2023-03-27/ )
Good point Wolf. Could easy aswell be as you assume.
Would you happen to know where to relisten to the hearing? The Docket does not contain audio
Wolf - you are right - it has been going on for a while. But we've all been put on hold due to covid and its not like the future is not looking to overturn. business and households have gotten 6-12months of relief with literal freezes.
The banks could recover 100% if they were just willing to give this a reasonable chance. You would think for a sector that has been bailed out of by governments twice now they'ld be held accountable to give relief where possible as well :)
my biggest initial rational/hope came from personal experience in finance; where we always preferred to help the business than actually take it over. over 6 years i saw many business in temporary difficulties and we always looked for a solution and found one.
As i thought this too was a temporary difficulty i was counting on a solution that wouldnt wipe us out. I figured the banks would much rather give some relief in these exceptional events than force something that will ultimately give a worse outcome.
Another facter was the 20% mooky holding that many seem to take into account. Who better to lead a company and care for shareholder value than the person that owns a fifth of it.
Those two - together with my own financial analysis of precovid numbers led me to believe this was a solid investment at attractive prices
I guess once the speculation started with the cineplex case and possible cons via c11. This became a hopium case
And once around 2p it became a risk-reward calculation
Maybe i was too naive; or too greedy; maybe we deserve this for having a CEO that wanted to bail on a deal. Maybe he was right to do so. Maybe we were right for believing in the core profitability and a gut feeling that all of this is a bit "injust" and that the judge will save it
Maybe we're all wrong for believing in justice in a hard & cold finance world
We'll see
Disclaimer: Venting post
So, Wednesday (and Thursday) has come and gone and with it, a lot of frustration but even more disappointment.
Where is this so-called plan that a certain lawyer was so eager to promote in the news?
Firstly i find it highly unprofessional (if they did) to post info to the news, especially if said news turns out to be false
There's a big group of lawyers involved yet somehow there's always one person leaking. Don't all these MFs have NDA's?
Anyway - nothing of significance in this post - just an LTH that has had it with the daily struggle to manage emotional responses of colorful news
i also want to add it REALLY does not help that the share price is moving so positively amid some of the hardest news articles we've seen. its so contradictory
I'm usually (or i try to be) very rational and not "take" info from the share price or direction but its been hard to keep it cool and wait for real news
Hi Srini,
I have no clue what to think really. There's hasnt been any info, other newspaperstuff which may be quoted by a relevant party but may just as well be filled in by the reporter.
I'm not knowledgeable nor do i have experience with C11 law and cases so i can't rely on that to make an educated guess.
I'm in state of "in-between" where i'm expecting to lose it all and where i'm nervously waiting to get relief; regardless of the outcome.
That being said - if there's any possible shareholder recovery - my biggest % of likelyhood would come from the judge weighing in.
I've always been convinced of Cineworlds Cash generation value and i can only hope the judge can bring some weight to defend the shareholders for the facrts; that we to have been shafted by exterioir circumstance and that Banks or Takeovers are in a very VERY advantageous situation to take advantage of us.
Normal bankrupcty is due to bad inherent business; whereas this is clearly a world fenomina that has struc us all.
But then again; business is brutal so again - very in-between feelings here
My only reason for not selling is that i would rather believe i made the right call for believing in the company and believing in its power to come through and that said power is also noted by the judge. that the judge can see we did not invest in a bad business; rather that we are victims of circumstance and we dont deserve to lose our shirts at the hands of other vultures.
I know that i would regret selling a recovery more than losing what i have left.
Dont wanna be the bringer of negativity here but i really dont think Jeff Bezos is going to do anyhting other than low ball it.
He copies things they sell on amazon and then undercuts & eliminates them.
I am not expecting ANY gifts at all from Bezos
i dont read any positive here.
I've been having a wierd feeling these last days, a lot of hit and miss info without anything concrete
I wanna see the plan, and i wanna hear the judge his verdict
I'm so done with this process
100%
i'm only counting on a pity-percentage from the judge
Dont think this has been posted:
Cineworld creditors plan management shuffle amid takeover interest - Bloomberg News
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/cineworld-creditors-plan-management-shuffle-amid-takeover-interest-bloomberg-2023-03-27/
@ HNS - where can we check these slides? Would love to look for myself
Also -
i find it very confusing that we're getting 2 articles - from the same source (josh sussberg)
Both with different info
Deadline with the hard message "Debtors would end up owning 100% of the publicly trading company"
https://deadline.com/2023/03/regal-parent-cineworld-expects-bids-for-some-assets-says-restructuring-plan-to-exit-chapter-11-nearly-ready-1235312168/
And then absolutely no details in bloomberg except for "reaching a deal with creditors to trim billions of dollars of debt from its balance sheet"
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/cineworld-reaches-deal-with-creditors-to-shave-billions-of-debt-1.1901722.amp.html
So - my questions:
1. Will we be able to see the plan?
2. Will this plan be subject to approval/Renegociation with court?
That reporter can buy my shares at 36p right now lol
Heck; ild even throw in a 20% discount
Great share! Thanks
Did this get approved/denied? Anyone catch an update on this?
My "shift-enter"s seem to have translated as "??"s
You can ignore those lol
Holy **** i got discouraged so fast. The difference in reporting and obvious big exceptionals made me do a very high level check.
Here's what i gathered:
Context
Overall cinema business https://www.the-numbers.com/market/
Pre covid annual tickets (consistent) around 1,3b?
2022 tickets : 760m (or 62%)??
What i (mainly) looked at: ?
-Dockets for US Q4?
-Cleansing materials page 6 (for H1 comparison to H1 19)??
What i noticed: ?
Biggest cash burners: ?Exceptionals & intrest (excluding leases) at US level. ?
DEC $108m + $82m; NOV $28m + $29m; OCT $4m + $136m
??( Disclaimer - all of the below is just assumptions, first thoughts on my end ) ??
For that Quarter, US would be “flat” were it not for these IMMENSE exceptionals and intrest expenses.?This is rhymes with what i see in H1. ??
What i take from this, at an attendance of 62% (worldwide) Cineworld can operate fairly flat on an “operational” level. Meaning excluding Debt intrest & c11 “exceptionals”??. So where do we go from here? 40% of revenue is still missing and looking at the cost structure, most of it seems fixed so the incremental margin up from 60% admission is about 50% to 90% of any incremental sale. Meaning, imo, with about 1,2b to 1,7b in revenue still to recover CW could easily free up 750m in intrest paying capacity.
??I could dig in more but then started to consider my time versus what its actually worth…??
It comes down to what i already believed. CW is a viable business; struck by the current conditions. If i had the money ild buy it; but also if i had money, ild buy it as cheap as possible.??
We have 5b+ in loans, at 5% this is $250m per year, which we can afford at 80% attendance or more. ??Our only hope is that the judge sees this and that banks bail us out, AS WE HAVE THEM (couldnt resist a copium closing line)
Hey Hexam,
Thanks for the input!! Its good to know you did something similar.
Can compare notes as soon as i'm done.
cheers
I'm looking to spend my weekend in making a sum FS of all the info that has been posted on the docket.
Aside from "Operating report" filter that gives jan23, dec22, nov22, oct22 and sep22. Is there info somewhere in the docket about aug22 and jul22 actuals ? I recall H1 actuals being posted somewhere aswell. Anyone remember where?
Thanks in advance