focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Just a small message to everyone here.
First all, best of luck all those still holding, our days are numbered and regardless of the outcome, i can say i will be happy when this finally comes to its conclusion. I think everyone here can agree this has been quite a ride & for me this is my first bad investment but immedeatly a big one.
I am beyond the point of hoping for anything but im too stuborn to sell cuz i wanna see how this ends. Out of principle i wanna stick with the decision i made, well aware of the risks.
I wanna thank the people ive connected with here on the board and i hope we all have better luck in the future or that we at least have gathered experience that will help us make better decisions in the future.
Special shoutout to Patience for all his hard work & determination; but also the guys who have provided rational insight & meaningful discussions here over the last year
It has been quite the journey and I genuinely wish you all the best.
Good luck all
Its great that they wanna get involved how its financially structured.
And Thank you for all your time and effort.
You can add me for sure!
So; i've just looked at the forecast. @ Hex & Wolf.
if i look at the Operational cash flow (except fy23), i see +- 1,2b in OCF, taking into consideration rent as part of operations (thank you IFRS) we land at a true operational cash flow of a solid amount above 600mil.
Now, to get to your 3b; that would only imply a multiple of 5. So i guess or i wonder, you guys are considering something else that brings down the value of the annual cash flow?
Please, if you want, im happy to hear your breakdown of the 3b
I know - but still, the naming couldve been better lol. Was is too hard for that financial expert to name it right? These guys are getting millions for this.
Was just looking over the famous docket 1604 - checkout page 138 of 151
Dividend paid to shareholders - 800 mil.
Guess someone did a good job naming the cash flow XD
Hex, i agree that $13b is too high, but I also agree (with Patience then) that $3b too low.
Hexam, I agree & thats why i've reached out. imo there are 2 items to approach and flesh out that will augment the overall value of the document.
But the good thing about the entire document is that it presents the case of valution from several point of view and that is why i said what i said in my previous reply to you.
imo There are still a lot of other good arguments made that stand regardless of the rent-omission. for ex The peer-comparison and deal analysis stand on its own.
Also if we are comparing the same years of financials, the IFRS treatment (guessing) would/should be the same.
Rent aside, there's a lot of good about the docket.
I've e-mailed patience this morning with my feedback on the docket to assist where i can.
and although i dont want to belittle the impact of the rents, the impact of the document itself and a lot of solid facts presented are equally not to be belittled.
All in all, our efforts as shareholders have improved so much and a lot of it is thanks to Patience.
Going from a small letter to a meated out document as the last docket, we've come a long way.
Does anyone know the exact (approx) amount that needs to be covered before the c11 settlement is in the money?
its never been quite clear as to what level the total creditor amount amounted to
Hexam - i think as good as all lenders are taking part, the repartition may have shifted a bit but afaik 99% of lenders are on board with the plan. The repartitioned split is prolly due to whomever is in the driver seat (which was the debate from 60ish % of lender approval to 99%). Allthough i have to admit i havent read anything recent in detail.
Hexam - If the lenders are getting 100% of shares, for a writeoff of 4,2 billion in debt + 800m fresh capital. They're "paying" 5b in total right?
just a small note regarding the 6b, isnt the majority of the value set at whatever the creditors are writing off? Seeing as the rest is being given via loan?
Imo the current "value" is the Writeoff + whatever capital (800m?) they're raising. So i think we're closer to 5b then 6b (4,xb writeoff + 800m)
"Cineworld is scheduled to seek final court approval of its bankruptcy restructuring on June 12."
Whats the difference between the approval they just got and the one they're seeking june 12?
It looks like all lenders are on boards; whats left?!
Thanks, At Glance, i'm not sure this will shed light on any valuation thou.
Where did you see they hired an audit company? And for what/whom ?
did anyone active on this forum attend the meeting? Curious to hear their feedback
Evils - if you wanna dig the history - try openAI. You can search for cases but info is limited to 2021.
Also curious where this is visible.
Small note though - based on the plan - we're not gonna be holding those shares
i think there's a difference tegop in the way that there's been a "cutoff" at a certain date where the business was not cash flow positive and in order to "restart" from the DIP date - all "old" debt before the reboot was classified in 1 pot.
My point thou, is that common debt like suppliers etc are prolly only losing a fraction in the way that, if 2 months of business was outstanding at time of cutoff, they're still in business and collecting money for the other 10 months and the years to come
So although their writeoff may seem huge. looking at the numbers of a couple million up to 10 mil i doubt they are significant losses for them.
But this is PURE PURE PURE Conjecture on my part; based on that top 10 i posted, linked in relation to a estimation of yearly costs, ie - a studio prolly collects 150 mil in licensing per year, but at date of the c11, they had 20 mil unpaid (and classed as claim) but in the mean time, theyre still making the other 120 during the c11 business as usual
Im intrested to hear what you want to share on your DD